SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Oh okay so just the faulty always warm BUF temp sensor. SYR was probably close to BUF? :shrugs: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, I'm with you on fighting this "bug" everybody gets about "Spring is almost here!" It's been tough though when the winter has gone the way it has, we have a couple weeks of boring weather (the only substantial snow we had was Thursday/Friday) and next week (and possibly further out) looks "meh" for now...and lake effect fluff melts the second the February sun hits it.... (the six inches of fluff I got on top of the synoptic snow was pretty much gone by the end of the weekend despite below freezing temps.) Wish we could get a couple consecutive weeks of 20s and moisture, with different winds over the lakes. Ive had 6 fantastic weeks. Some of the best winter weather I can remember. I can’t imagine your weather has been THAT different? Do I want more? Always. But my dog’s paws haven’t been muddy since Christmas. My yard has been snow covered. It’s practically been Alpine. I think we’ll see at least a couple more good storms. The rest of the NE hasn’t done well so I expect the climate will try and normalize a bit and I’m hoping we also cash in. but I can’t complain after December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 32 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: EPS has a couple C/E NY scrapers but the rest are whiffs. Just about ready to call this one. Let’s see what 0z does. Could the Canadian capture a HUGE coup? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Sizzle sizzle has slowed the last couple hours, only going up about a degree.. Sitting at 43°/28°.. Some runoff on my side streets but for the most part just waterlogging the snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Just about ready to call this one. Let’s see what 0z does. Could the Canadian capture a HUGE coup? Probably not, but... the GEM/RGEM were the closest to nailing the snowfall axis with the last storm amongst atleast the global models for the upstate area. The GFS and esp the Euro were too far SE by 30-40 miles. But that was also a much more minor variance vs. what will be needed to score on this storm as it stands right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 KSYR is at 9C (48F). Really good shot at 50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 lol seems like an interesting battle will brew in here. Im a big time snowpack guy and even with these brief warm ups the snowpack in WNY and GTA will be around for another 7-10 days minimum. Which historically has been when retaining snow on the ground starts to become difficult. March snow events where it snows 3-5" but gets blasted in the 28F and sun aren't interesting to me. So in the next few weeks I switch to big time rain events or big time 6-10" snow storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: lol seems like an interesting battle will brew in here. Im a big time snowpack guy and even with these brief warm ups the snowpack in WNY and GTA will be around for another 7-10 days minimum. Which historically has been when retaining snow on the ground starts to become difficult. March snow events where it snows 3-5" but gets blasted in the 28F and sun aren't interesting to me. So in the next few weeks I switch to big time rain events or big time 6-10" snow storms Wind Storm. Real big March windstorm. That ice getting pushed up the lake in BUF would be an amazing sight! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ive had 6 fantastic weeks. Some of the best winter weather I can remember. I can’t imagine your weather has been THAT different? Do I want more? Always. But my dog’s paws haven’t been muddy since Christmas. My yard has been snow covered. It’s practically been Alpine. I think we’ll see at least a couple more good storms. The rest of the NE hasn’t done well so I expect the climate will try and normalize a bit and I’m hoping we also cash in. but I can’t complain after December Western NY has had a few more solid synoptic systems than here. Lake effect has also been more prevalent. My totals for the season are a bit skewed with two very fortunate lake effect events (Nov/Dec). We had the big sleetfest and then thaws are always on steroids here. I agree it's been nice not seeing the grass for a solid month straight. I believe all of you out there have about 18 to 24 inch snowpacks this winter, while here it's been hard to get to a foot. Again, I moved here excited for 130 inch averages and this is the 3rd winter WELL below normal. And as we know, I am an ultimate snow weenie. I moved here knowing it wasn't going to be the UP, but I also didn't expect it to be 3 consecutive winters of this. But, I know we've all had mostly "meh" winters together. It's just been more significant here because of what average is and how much below average we've been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Western NY has had a few more solid synoptic systems than here. Lake effect has also been more prevalent. My totals for the season are a bit skewed with two very fortunate lake effect events (Nov/Dec). We had the big sleetfest and then thaws are always on steroids here. I agree it's been nice not seeing the grass for a solid month straight. I believe all of you out there have about 18 to 24 inch snowpacks this winter, while here it's been hard to get to a foot. Again, I moved here excited for 130 inch averages and this is the 3rd winter WELL below normal. And as we know, I am an ultimate snow weenie. I moved here knowing it wasn't going to be the UP, but I also didn't expect it to be 3 consecutive winters of this. But, I know we've all had mostly "meh" winters together. It's just been more significant here because of what average is and how much below average we've been. I dont know about Syracuse winter temps but I find your area and Buffalo similar to Erie PA. Tons of snow but retaining it compared to other snowbelts in the Great Lakes is much more difficult. Muskoka, Kincardine-Owen Sound and UP get dumped on, are much further north and have normally frozen lakes a warm front has to go over. You guys are wide open for gulf air to surge north. My cottage for example in Muskoka is 32F and Im at 42F. Downside is those places get even more screwed in about 6 weeks haha. It could be 60F at my house but 40F and heavy fog up in Muskoka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 Could care less about snow depth. Nothing beats this and anyone saying otherwise is lying to themselves. Jeb walks of all Jeb walks. https://youtu.be/imS2v8NeW5o 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: I dont know about Syracuse winter temps but I find your area and Buffalo similar to Erie PA. Tons of snow but retaining it compared to other snowbelts in the Great Lakes is much more difficult. Muskoka, Kincardine-Owen Sound and UP get dumped on, are much further north and have normally frozen lakes a warm front has to go over. You guys are wide open for gulf air to surge north. My cottage for example in Muskoka is 32F and Im at 42F. Downside is those places get even more screwed in about 6 weeks haha. It could be 60F at my house but 40F and heavy fog up in Muskoka We get attacked on several counts. That warm air surges up the lake plains AND the hills to the south cause furnace downsloping (the worst). If the snowpack is lake effect fluff, it's incinerated in no time. If it has synoptic snowfall in there and dewpoints are low, it takes a good chunk of time. Our thaws have also consisted of low dewpoints, so the snowpack has done much better at holding. Another frustrating thing to me about the climate here is that right after a synoptic storm, we get a thaw within a day or two that knocks the pack back down. That happened throughout January here. (One of the reasons our anomaly, even during a month that had many below 0 degrees F, wasn't that big.) My two winters in Muskoka were BY FAR the best winters I've EVER experienced!!! I think living in that awesome winter climate has made it hard for me to adjust to these "so-so" winters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 50 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: KSYR is at 9C (48F). Really good shot at 50. It's up to 49 degrees. 8 degrees above forecasted. Which one of you is going to go stand to its south and fart in its direction to hit 50? Who am I kidding. It will somehow be recorded at 50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 To bad it falls apart before it reaches us… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Looks like some solid upslope for parts of the tug..NWS has yet to adjust, doubtful we see 2"-3" here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: We get attacked on several counts. That warm air surges up the lake plains AND the hills to the south cause furnace downsloping (the worst). If the snowpack is lake effect fluff, it's incinerated in no time. If it has synoptic snowfall in there and dewpoints are low, it takes a good chunk of time. Our thaws have also consisted of low dewpoints, so the snowpack has done much better at holding. Another frustrating thing to me about the climate here is that right after a synoptic storm, we get a thaw within a day or two that knocks the pack back down. That happened throughout January here. (One of the reasons our anomaly, even during a month that had many below 0 degrees F, wasn't that big.) My two winters in Muskoka were BY FAR the best winters I've EVER experienced!!! I think living in that awesome winter climate has made it hard for me to adjust to these "so-so" winters. You’ve had 6 weeks of snow cover, you wanted snow over and you got it. When you want high snow total years you have to ride the edge sometimes tainting and risking cutters. That’s my type of pattern. If you want good snow cover you have to enjoy the suppressive track. One out of probably 10 winters you’ll end up getting the best of both worlds. 2013-2014 was the last one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 18z runs were awful for any chance. It was already very slim and this just shut the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 18z runs were awful for any chance. It was already very slim and this just shut the door. 18z Gem??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 18z Gem??? IDK. Does it really even exist? The unicorn model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Peter Hall said one model is favorable today whereas it wasn't yesterday for CNY, which model do you think he was referencing for a poss noreaster Superbowl Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Probably 12z Canadian.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Probably 12z Canadian.. You're right! Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 18z eps has 2 c/e ny scrapers and 48 duds. Going to need a big comeback and soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Playing in the snow pack was like a geological dig site. Layer on top of layer. The bottom layer was hard as rock, I don’t see much of the water content in this pack being lost with these brief warm ups. It’s just going to condense down to and icy slush slop and be a ticking time bomb for a bigger warmup with rain. Took a sample before any added rainfall this afternoon. That top layer was juicy “af” pardon my French. Melted down to 3.1” liquid. Turning into snow cone consistency… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 With clouds and a south wind, stupid sizzlecuse continues sizzling away in the mid 40s. See most of the rest of you guys have dropped into the upper 30s/low 40s. BGM has an HWO for possible snow squalls tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 RGEM picking up on some sneaky lake effect Saturday evening? This time of year with the west central basin iced over it can change the setup of the normal wind directions and target the metro a little more. Hugs the ice free north shore east to west and into BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: RGEM picking up on some sneaky lake effect Saturday evening? This time of year with the west central basin iced over it can change the setup of the normal wind directions and target the metro a little more. Hugs the ice free north shore east to west and into BUF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: With clouds and a south wind, stupid sizzlecuse continues sizzling away in the mid 40s. See most of the rest of you guys have dropped into the upper 30s/low 40s. BGM has an HWO for possible snow squalls tomorrow afternoon? Sizzlecuse is right! Currently: Cicero 43.5 Liberty NY 28.7 (Sullivan County in the Catskills) Lynbrook (Long Island) 31.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Sizzlecuse is right! Currently: Cicero 43.5 Liberty NY 28.7 (Sullivan County in the Catskills) Lynbrook (Long Island) 31.4 I warned you. This place is NOT a winter paradise. It's a mid-Atlantic climate that gets somewhat more snow. lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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