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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Another couple weeks and I will be there. Doesn't take much to get my winter fix in. I just hope we don't get 40s and cold, cloudy, and rainy like we've had the last few years in late March-early May. That's the most depressing weather there is. The last few years we've skipped spring right to summer. 

aside from a freak snowstorm in mid April, spring was nice in GTA. 50s and low 60s dominated the second half of March with I believe the hottest day getting to 70F back to back days March 24th and March 25th. Which is only about 5-6 weeks away 

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

this def explains why numbers are lower. Def not a fan of measurement 1 time a day, I do every 6 hours, then clear

https://www.weather.gov/media/coop/Snow_Measurement_Guidelines-2014.pdf

I think a lot of people who report can usually only do about once a day, or maybe x2 if motivated/home. I've seen where more frequent measurements make a difference, esp if you measure right after/during a snowfall vs waiting overnight where settling/melting can reduce measured amts. Not always but...

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7 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

aside from a freak snowstorm in mid April, spring was nice in GTA. 50s and low 60s dominated the second half of March with I believe the hottest day getting to 70F back to back days March 24th and March 25th. Which is only about 5-6 weeks away 

Yea March was warm +6.3. Had that late April storm which brought over 5" to KBUF. May was chillier with a negative .7 departure. 

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4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I think a lot of people who report can usually only do about once a day, or maybe x2 if motivated/home. I've seen where more frequent measurements make a difference, esp if you measure right after/during a snowfall vs waiting overnight where settling/melting can reduce measured amts. Not always but...

Yup, esp with lake effect, sublimation occurs all the time. I have a camera on my snow board so if I’m not there to clear I can see max depth. Yes you can bun me. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Last february was driven by a SSW, completely different this year. We are basically hanging on favorable MJO  right now which is giving us a bit favorable of a pacific look but with lack of blocking nothing can turn the corner unless the pna ridge is in the right spot. 

I wasn't saying I expect it to be the same because of similar conditions. I'm just saying that I'm struggling with thinking this winter is over as of early February (because it's sucked) when in reality some winters haven't started til early February (which is pathetic in itself).

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I wasn't saying I expect it to be the same because of similar conditions. I'm just saying that I'm struggling with thinking this winter is over as of early February (because it's sucked) when in reality some winters haven't started til early February (which is pathetic in itself).

Ooo, yea it’s def not over, but I think things get hostile after Presidents’ Day. We will see though. 

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12 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

With over 6 inches of snow depth coming up to nearly 4 weeks in GTA I’m nearly over winter 

Ideally one more storm/cold outbreak but I’d love for 50s to start asap. I love Morchs haha 

4 weeks of winter is nothing. lol If you look at some of (but not all) of the winters between approximately 1955 and 1985, winter would start early November and last through until early April. 

 

On a sidenote, it's interesting how some of the warmest winters on record are still from 90 years ago. For example, downtown Toronto's warmest Januarys are 1) 1932 and 2) 1931, with records going back to 1840. Even January 1913 was warmer than most of the Januarys of the past 30 years...and this followed one of the coldest Januarys on record (1912).

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ooo, yea it’s def not over, but I think things get hostile after Presidents’ Day. We will see though. 

I just hope we don't have a torch in the February 20-28th timeframe, only for cold to return in March. I'd rather have a slow, gradual warm-up rather than a sudden jump into the 60s.

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26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Another couple weeks and I will be there. Doesn't take much to get my winter fix in. I just hope we don't get 40s and cold, cloudy, and rainy like we've had the last few years in late March-early May. That's the most depressing weather there is. The last few years we've skipped spring right to summer. 

I feel last spring was decent but this statement is correct. The springs around here are highly unusable until mid the late May and at that point we try to cram in hundreds of activities into 4 months.

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38 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yup, esp with lake effect, sublimation occurs all the time. I have a camera on my snow board so if I’m not there to clear I can see max depth. Yes you can bun me. 

It's not sublimation changing numbers during the course of 12 hours or so, its compaction.  Snow basically never stops falling....its always compacting together more efficiently, that's why glaciers form.  Snow will continually settle until its a solid block of ice.  

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

It's not sublimation changing numbers during the course of 12 hours or so, its compaction.  Snow basically never stops falling....its always compacting together more efficiently, that's why glaciers form.  Snow will continually settle until its a solid block of ice.  

Good to know, but still if you measure right after snow falls that still is fluffed up compared to 6hrs layer going to be different numbers I guess point of my post was 

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53 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Looking back at last years photos to judge snowbank size haha. Last year mid February was packed with snow and created massive snowbanks. The thaw started almost immediately though and by end of February my piles were diminishing fast. March 13th I took the last photo of a tiny remnant baking in the sun haha. By March 20th Toronto had 7 days in a row around 55-65F with a severe thunderstorm warning

I know everyone wants winter to win out but now we're getting to the point in the calendar where changes will start pretty fast. 

Last February saved the winter for me.  We had 4 inches or more on the ground for the entire month peaking at 18 inches during mid month.  Was a hell of a 6 week run that ended just as quickly as it started.  

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Good to know, but still if you measure right after snow falls that still is fluffed up compared to 6hrs layer going to be different numbers I guess point of my post was 

Oh absolutely.  If the intervals are set ahead of time, and not set when the snow starts, you can definitely skew numbers in the way you mention.  It's the reason all the airports will always have much higher numbers on the season than the general public, 6 hour intervals are very short compared to people waiting 24 or more hours to take a measurement where the first few inches that fell have been squashed down to nothing.  

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47 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Used to be that March was my favorite winter month. We used to have some real beauties in March. Last 3 years you wouldn’t know it. 
This nonsense about, ‘winter is almost over I hope’ has got to stop! 
This is a weenie forum. If you must talk like that go hit up your Aunt Gertrude 

What if Aunt Gertrude was run over by a snowplow in March because her glasses were fogged up wearing a mask?  How insensitive. Do better.

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Used to be that March was my favorite winter month. We used to have some real beauties in March. Last 3 years you wouldn’t know it. 
This nonsense about, ‘winter is almost over I hope’ has got to stop! 
This is a weenie forum. If you must talk like that go hit up your Aunt Gertrude 

We're actually the only sub-forum without a poster who cheers for warmth/sunshine 24/7. Consider yourself lucky we don't have torch tiger or torchageddon. :lol:

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4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I feel last spring was decent but this statement is correct. The springs around here are highly unusable until mid the late May and at that point we try to cram in hundreds of activities into 4 months.

I've noticed that, for the past five years or so, we've been getting cold springs, with snow well into April, but very warm early Falls.

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