Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[Stash]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, Albany proper is a snow hellhole. I'm at 28"ish. Garbage but considerably better than them. I'm working across the street from the airport right now(leaving jobsite) and it's actually snowing lol.

Compared to much of Upstate NY it is.  It does better than the Hudson Valley area, and maybe Elmira?  When I moved up here from CT I was actually surprised at how well it does in terms of snow given its location.  Hearing relatives from other parts of Upstate talk about it, you'd think it never snows here.  The capital region in general averages 60-65", better than most non-mountainous and non-lake effect cities in the country.  I guess it depends on one's expectations, lol.  You've done a little better than I have this season though, as I'm around 23"-ish.

[TugHillMatt]

9 minutes ago, Stash said:

Looks like it gets progressively worse from West to East across NYS.  BGM might be a slight anomaly due to the airport's high elevation relative to other cities, as well as to downtown Binghamton.  Isn't the airport something like 1600'+ while downtown is around 800-900'?  That would sort of be like Albany's official weather records being recorded on the Helderberg Escarpment (Thatcher Park, around 1000') instead of where the airport currently is at around 300'.  Either way, I know it's hard to pick a spot that is truly representative of that area due to the frequent elevation changes. 

I will say, however, we've had pretty consistent snow cover since early January despite the low snowfall.  That's a departure from the previous couple winters where we've had a couple big storms, but bigger warmups too.  The 2"+ of sleet that fell the other day should give this some extra staying power too.

Binghamton city does way worse than the airport. The BGM airport is a micro climate in itself and does not represent the city of Binghamton well.

[tombo82685]

11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Syracuse falls under BGM. I wouldn't even go with under in Dec or Jan. here. It almost always gets above forecasted highs here. True heat conductor. South winds are my worst nightmare.

That’s right, I forgot they are bgm. South winds are everyone’s torch because it’s a warm wind. Some places just warm up more like cuse. 

[wolfie09]

We'll see how this next one goes.. Forecast as of now 2"-4" and 1"-2" tomorrow/night but POPs only 50%-60%..

Off Lake Erie, low-level flow starts out WSW tonight then veers
WNW on Tue morning, but inversions are falling by then. SLRs do not
look more than 10:1 most of tonight but could increase slightly on
Tuesday. Overall, snow amounts east of Lake Erie for most will be 1-
3 inches tonight into Tuesday.

Off Lake Ontario, it is overall a better setup for this bout of lake
effect, mostly occurring Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Low-level
flow on Tuesday starts out sheared from WSW then becomes more
aligned from the W Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening
before becoming sheared again as warm air advection and lowering
inversions put crimp in lake effect activity. Potential for
snowfall rates to 1 inch per hour maximize late Tuesday
afternoon through early Tuesday evening. Have total snowfall
Tuesday through Tuesday night of 4-6 inches. If these totals
bump up a bit more, could see the need for advisory for northern
Oswego county/southern Jefferson county and across Tug Hill
into western Lewis county as well.

[rochesterdave]

Good luck making sense of this mess. Although it does look kind of familiar…

[tombo82685]

9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We'll see how this next one goes.. Forecast as of now 2"-4" and 1"-2" tomorrow/night but POPs only 50%-60%..

Off Lake Erie, low-level flow starts out WSW tonight then veers
WNW on Tue morning, but inversions are falling by then. SLRs do not
look more than 10:1 most of tonight but could increase slightly on
Tuesday. Overall, snow amounts east of Lake Erie for most will be 1-
3 inches tonight into Tuesday.

Off Lake Ontario, it is overall a better setup for this bout of lake
effect, mostly occurring Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Low-level
flow on Tuesday starts out sheared from WSW then becomes more
aligned from the W Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening
before becoming sheared again as warm air advection and lowering
inversions put crimp in lake effect activity. Potential for
snowfall rates to 1 inch per hour maximize late Tuesday
afternoon through early Tuesday evening. Have total snowfall
Tuesday through Tuesday night of 4-6 inches. If these totals
bump up a bit more, could see the need for advisory for northern
Oswego county/southern Jefferson county and across Tug Hill
into western Lewis county as well.

Of course you Debbed on it when I mentioned it a few days ago now in line for 3-6

[wolfie09]

3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Of course you Debbed on it when I mentioned it a few days ago now in line for 3-6

Well yes and no lol You mentioned widespread..Look at the GFS and it's a tuggie week with multiple chances of LES east of the lakes.. Obviously things will change though..

 

"Next week looks somewhat on the drier side besides a little JP over the tug..These clippers that go north of Ontario don't tend to have much synoptic moisture and could even introduce mixing..It's basically LES or nothing lol Not really seeing much wide spread with the GFS being the most favorable.."

[tombo82685]

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well yes and no lol You mentioned widespread..Look at the GFS and it's a tuggie week with multiple chances of LES east of the lakes.. Obviously things will change though..

 

"Next week looks somewhat on the drier side besides a little JP over the tug..These clippers that go north of Ontario don't tend to have much synoptic moisture and could even introduce mixing..It's basically LES or nothing lol Not really seeing much wide spread with the GFS being the most favorable.."

Well I figured that was implied since we all live, well most of us live in lake effect area. The clipper enhances the lake effect. I see your point though as clipper moisture is north of low track 

[BGM Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Stash said:

Looks like it gets progressively worse from West to East across NYS.  BGM might be a slight anomaly due to the airport's high elevation relative to other cities, as well as to downtown Binghamton.  Isn't the airport something like 1600'+ while downtown is around 800-900'?  That would sort of be like Albany's official weather records being recorded on the Helderberg Escarpment (Thatcher Park, around 1000') instead of where the airport currently is at around 300'.

Lol... yeah that's correct. Though I think it's all relative to some extent. I think the downtown area averages about 65-70 while the airport averages 85. The differences on an individual storm level really manifest themselves in the early and late season storms that are much more elevation dependent and there really hasn't been much of that this year with the late start to winter. But I can definitely recall numerous storms in the month of April where the airport got pasted with 12" while us valley folks only got a coating to a few sloppy inches. But I'm also about 930' and only 4 miles west of the airport and I've been nearly right on par with the official airport/nws snowfall reports each storm thus far this winter. Myself and the airport are both on a nice nw flow trajectory for some occasional LES goodies off Cayuga Lake that the city proper to the south usually misses out on, and that also helps a bit over the course of the winter. 

I'm also thinking the 700ft elevation difference between the 300' Albany proper and nearby 1000' hills you describe might not actually be the same pound for pound difference as the 900' valleys and 1630' airport here. Elevation difference will become more neutralized as you gain altitude... I.e. 900' / 1600' is 56% while 300' / '1000 is 30%. I think the orientation of the HRV also lends itself to more severe shadowing/downsloping effects on occasion that we don't really ever experience here. Once in while the Poconos and/or Catskills can cause some shadowing of southern/eastern Broome county including City of Bing proper but that tends to fade as you move further nw toward my area and the airport.

[TugHillMatt]

Wow, this is quite impressive...the closest I think I've ever seen the Nam and Rgem agree.

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS with active clipper/redeveloping pattern with marginally cold enough air. Not a terrible look.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Lol... yeah that's correct. Though I think it's all relative to some extent. I think the downtown area averages about 65-70 while the airport averages 85. The differences on an individual storm level really manifest themselves in the early and late season storms that are much more elevation dependent and there really hasn't been much of that this year with the late start to winter. But I can definitely recall numerous storms in the month of April where the airport got pasted with 12" while us valley folks only got a coating to a few sloppy inches. But I'm also about 930' and only 4 miles west of the airport and I've been nearly right on par with the official airport/nws snowfall reports each storm thus far this winter. Myself and the airport are both on a nice nw flow trajectory for some occasional LES goodies off Cayuga Lake that the city proper to the south usually misses out on, and that also helps a bit over the course of the winter. 

I'm also thinking the 700ft elevation difference between the 300' Albany proper and nearby 1000' hills you describe might not actually be the same pound for pound difference as the 900' valleys and 1630' airport here. Elevation difference will become more neutralized as you gain altitude... I.e. 900' / 1600' is 56% while 300' / '1000 is 30%. I think the orientation of the HRV also lends itself to more severe shadowing/downsloping effects on occasion that we don't really ever experience here. Once in while the Poconos and/or Catskills can cause some shadowing of southern/eastern Broome county including City of Bing proper but that tends to fade as you move further nw toward my area and the airport.

KBUF recording station is at our airport. 5 miles north of airport probably averages 75" a year while 5 miles south probably averages 110" a year.

Its similar for SYR recording station. They are located north of the city and average 124" per. If it was 5 miles south of SYR they would average like 90" per.

[BuffaloWeather]

Who put a piece of paper in front of the satellite while it was taking pictures today? Definitely not going ice skating on that ice, it all got pushed into the lake.

[brentrich]

Do you think great lakes ice cover has shot of hitting over 80% in next 2 weeks since GFS is showing well below average for NE for next 2 weeks. 

[Thinksnow18]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

KBUF recording station is at our airport. 5 miles north of airport probably averages 75" a year while 5 miles south probably averages 110" a year.

Its similar for SYR recording station. They are located north of the city and average 124" per. If it was 5 miles south of SYR they would average like 90" per.

Fact. The early January LES event was perfect proof. Airport 18.6”; 3 miles north in my neighborhood about 12” and 2 miles north 2-3” very defined sharp cutoff. 

[TugHillMatt]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS with active clipper/redeveloping pattern with marginally cold enough air. Not a terrible look.

We need the clipper pattern to develop further south than it has been.

[rochesterdave]

These northern runners are just nothing for Rochester. Bad wind direction, down sloping. Forecast for the next week: flurries or drizzle followed by ice on the sidewalk. 

[TugHillMatt]

11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

These northern runners are just nothing for Rochester. Bad wind direction, down sloping. Forecast for the next week: flurries or drizzle followed by ice on the sidewalk. 

The runs keep showing less and less and less snow. Winter of suck #3.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

lets see what tonight runs bring.  boring 10 days on tap unless one these clippers can spin something up, but I think we flip back to cold and stormy after the 17th.  Good looks earlier on all that something will be brewing in the 17-23 time frame.  at least we dont look to torch over these next 10 days.  few warmer days in the mix but overall somewhat seasonal with chances for fresh coating 3-4 times in that period.   snow pack will take a good compression but should hold.    

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Oh lookie at that… Spectrum News model throwing down a lake effect band in the metro towards morning… cool… cool…

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Oh lookie at that… Spectrum News model throwing down a lake effect band in the metro towards morning… cool… cool…

lol tossed

[TugHillMatt]

25 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

lets see what tonight runs bring.  boring 10 days on tap unless one these clippers can spin something up, but I think we flip back to cold and stormy after the 17th.  Good looks earlier on all that something will be brewing in the 17-23 time frame.  at least we dont look to torch over these next 10 days.  few warmer days in the mix but overall somewhat seasonal with chances for fresh coating 3-4 times in that period.   snow pack will take a good compression but should hold.    

I don't know...it looks like we continue with what's been happening. You guys and down to Erie look like the best places to get snow while the rest of us outside of hilltops beg for flurries.

[sferic]

Going to have to sell my Cicero home and move to Redfield

[mississaugasnow]

With over 6 inches of snow depth coming up to nearly 4 weeks in GTA I’m nearly over winter 

Ideally one more storm/cold outbreak but I’d love for 50s to start asap. I love Morchs haha 

[Geez150]

I too am wishing for another 10 plus state wide event to break out. I would also love for an arctic outbreak.  But would settle for high 20s. To me winter  should last until mid March then start having the  ups and downs like we are seeing this week.  If only....

[lakeeffectkid383]

17 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

I too am wishing for another 10 plus state wide event to break out. I would also love for an arctic outbreak.  But would settle for high 20s. To me winter  should last until mid March then start having the  ups and downs like we are seeing this week.  If only....

Give me cold and snow till end of March. Love big storms in middle to end of March like 2017 I believe it was when I got 27” in that storm/lake enhanced in the middle of March. Once it hits April bring the warmth but we all know that doesn’t happen around here. 

[TugHillMatt]

Man, whenever I check new runs, hoping for something to pop, it just looks worse and worse.  Next two weeks, at this point, look shot. What a goofy winter.

[CNY_WX]

Snowfall chart put out this morning by the NWS in Buffalo. Carol in Redfield leads but not by much over Cattaraugus  Tom in Lowville, you’re in the lower half  Hard to believe Geneva has only had 27.1 inches so far.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Snowfall chart put out this morning by the NWS in Buffalo. Carol in Redfield leads but not by much over Cattaraugus  Tom in Lowville, you’re in the lower half  Hard to believe Geneva has only had 27.1 inches so far.

Oswego only has 53 inches? That seems really low.

[lakeeffectkid383]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Oswego only has 53 inches? That seems really low.

Yep lake view 50” is def way low. I know I’m higher then them in several events but I’m only 5 miles away from them and I’m almost at 80” they gotta be closer to 70”. No idea where these numbers are from.