Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Control run.. I get basically nothing, but the control is usually amped to Toronto so I'll take that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Buffalo: 42" Rochester: 37" Albany: 24" Binghamton: 20" Syracuse: 10" NYC: 1" Tug Hill Matt's Backyard: 0.4", 4 in. sleet Thanks for the shout out 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Close enough to start its own thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, tim123 said: What is control run? Basically an ensemble member.. Another member of the ensemble (CNTL: Control forecast) is at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES but at that lower resolution it utilises the most accurate estimate of the current conditions and the currently best description of the model physics. Its significance for the ensemble is that it provides the unperturbed member to which the perturbations for the remainder of the ensemble members are applied. The perturbed members (50 members) are similar to the CNTL but their initial states and model physics have been perturbed to explore the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model. They provide a range of possible future weather states. When averaged over many forecasts (although not necessarily for any particular forecast) these have lower skill than either the HRES or the CNTL. However they do provide an estimate of the forecast uncertainty or confidence. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 00z nam out to 84 not as good as 18z. I know it's just the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Getting some decent snow shower activity Imby, nice fluffy flakes..Not expecting it to last to much longer though... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Rates under the darker greens has to be at least 2"-3" per hour, flakes are like golf balls lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 00z gfs , nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 @wolfie09 Getting hit by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: @wolfie09 Getting hit by that? Yeah BW, it was hit or miss, basically a "refresher"..I think nearest site had a little over an inch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah BW, it was hit or miss, basically a "refresher"..I think nearest site had a little over an inch.. so RGEM busted pretty bad with this? Or was snowfall too far off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: so RGEM busted pretty bad with this? Or was snowfall too far off shore. Rgem and 3k both looked solid at some point but both backed off as we got closer.. Most guidance didn't have much, forecast was 1"-2".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just came up in my fb memories. Jan 2019 was a month lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Off topic, but wow!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sub_Zero said: Off topic, but wow!! Sea affect snow. What elevation are they at? We see this type of stuff out west but with orographic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 17 minutes ago, Sub_Zero said: Off topic, but wow!! Yes please!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sea affect snow. What elevation are they at? We see this type of stuff out west but with orographic lift. 950m or so...definitely upsloping going on with a West or North wind. https://www.windy.com/-Webcams/Japan/Aomori-Prefecture/Aomori/Hakkoda-Summit-Park-Sukayu-Onsen/webcams/1589444395?40.645,140.818,13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 EC spins up quite the coastal after the first storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 According to the COOP from around the area, overnight lows rivaled that of Feb 2015.. Pulaski was at 1.8° for the month with 1 more day that will lower that number..Mexico COOP came in with an average low of 0.6°.. Lowville to Watertown came in at -2° to -4° for the month.. Obviously According to the COOPs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: According to the COOP from around the area, overnight lows rivaled that of Feb 2015.. Pulaski was at 1.8° for the month with 1 more day that will lower that number..Mexico COOP came in with an average low of 0.6°.. Lowville to Watertown came in at -2° to -4° for the month.. Obviously According to the COOPs lol Giggity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: According to the COOP from around the area, overnight lows rivaled that of Feb 2015.. Pulaski was at 1.8° for the month with 1 more day that will lower that number..Mexico COOP came in with an average low of 0.6°.. Lowville to Watertown came in at -2° to -4° for the month.. Obviously According to the COOPs lol gross. Lowest KBUF got was 1 degree lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It's funny that the Mexico COOP came in with 50" of snow on the month with 3.16" of precipitation while pulaski COOP came in with 22" of snow on 3.08" of liquid lol I find that the Mexico COOP is always on the high end of the spectrum every event and vice versa for pulaski.. Oswego and Fulton fit somewhere in the middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 I found @TugHillMattnew home 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Like on January 10th when both COOP had similar precipitation totals but 4" for Mexico and T for Pulaski lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Like on January 10th when both COOP had similar precipitation totals but 4" for Mexico and T for Pulaski lol Yea, some of these COOP observers are a little sketchy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Cold keeps dropping into us. Middle of febuary is on my radar for a biggie. 1058 mb high. Thats crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This looks great here then it take a right hand turn and just grazes southern New England and Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS is basically a northern stream/LES type pattern, at least at 12z..My kind of pattern lol Granted it will be different in 6hours.. I'm just asking for 1 long duration event before the season comes to an end lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 40 with sunshine feels incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just hit freezing for the first time in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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