Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 5:50 PM, rochesterdave said: Who used to say this?!? Expand IIRC, it was a poster named Buckeye back in the day, a legit funny contributor (not the current lunatic Moderator). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:22 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Definitely further NW Expand We soak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Waaaay NW from 0z. At least we stopped some of the bleeding the other way. Is now the time we go too far NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The storm really never "bombs" out as its anafrontal so you want to be as close to that taint as possible to get the best stuff. In comparison to a strengthening closing off system you'd rather be further NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:26 PM, BuffaloWeather said: The storm really never "bombs" out as its anafrontal so you want to be as close to that taint as possible to get the best stuff. In comparison to a strengthening closing off system you'd rather be further NW. Expand Ah yes, the old “ya gotta smell the taint” deal… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:25 PM, 96blizz said: Waaaay NW from 0z. At least we stopped some of the bleeding the other way. Is now the time we go too far NW? Expand Been way too far NW for me as is. This is DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 That's some major difference at H5 between 0z and 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:25 PM, Syrmax said: We soak. Expand Over a foot for SYR. Not as much juice as GFS. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 We take 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:28 PM, wolfie09 said: We take Expand 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:27 PM, Ericjcrash said: Been way too far NW for me as is. This is DOA. Expand Plenty of days of tribulation remaining here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Output of GFS, CMC and Euro Ops look remarkably similar now for this range after being quite divergent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 It's not too far off. First precipitation with this event starts around 2-3 PM on Weds across WNY. Winter Storm Watches likely issued tomorrow afternoon if guidance reminds consistent. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The potential exists for a long duration winter storm to impact the region Wednesday night into Friday. This system has the potential to bring significant accumulating snow. Details in forecast track and exact amounts are still emerging at this time. A more northern track could also bring the possibility of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:28 PM, wolfie09 said: We take Expand Let's see the kutchie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:36 PM, 96blizz said: Output of GFS, CMC and Euro Ops look remarkably similar now for this range after being quite divergent. Expand And worth noting the Euro is the farthest NW now out of the 3 after being the farthest SE last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:41 PM, tim123 said: Let's see the kutchie Expand 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'd imagine some pretty strong ne winds south of ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Eps shifted nw as one would expect following that Op run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:27 PM, 96blizz said: Ah yes, the old “ya gotta smell the taint” deal… Expand Gotta do more than smell it if you really want the goods! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 7:18 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Gotta do more than smell it if you really want the goods! Expand Whatever it takes!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 7:24 PM, 96blizz said: Whatever it takes!!! Expand Dam you are a snow whore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 9:06 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Had some fun digging out a cross section view of the snow pack with the kids. Can see two distinct icy layers in the pack. From the top down it’s 2.5” snow, .5” icy layer, 3.5” snow, 1.0” icy layer 2.5” snow. 10” total snow depth. Took a core and letting it melt down to see what the water content shows. Expand 10” OTG melted down to 1.8” liquid. That thicker sleet layer took forever to finally melt. Another 2”+ of liquid possible this week which even if it starts as rain will easily absorb into this pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 7:17 PM, BGM Blizzard said: Eps shifted nw as one would expect following that Op run. Expand This is the problem with that phased solution. You guys want a rain/sleet storm? Here it is… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 7:28 PM, rochesterdave said: This is the problem with that phased solution. You guys want a rain/sleet storm? Here it is… Expand With this type of set up and @tombo82685 commentary - at this range I would rather it be a bit NW than SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 7:10 PM, tim123 said: I'd imagine some pretty strong ne winds south of ontario? Expand Won’t matter if it’s warm, at least as far as enhancement goes. It would matter with the suppressed scenario. I just remember all these anafrontal storms screwing us bad. Hopefully we get some south ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 TOMBO and NWS seem to like colder. Which is a relief. My gut is screaming otherwise but my gut does have the best record. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 7:28 PM, rochesterdave said: This is the problem with that phased solution. You guys want a rain/sleet storm? Here it is… Expand Looks good for Buffalo and that's all that matters 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:30 PM, 96blizz said: What makes this forum so great is that we all know eventually we’re going to get snow. It’s like being some really handsome guy that knows even if a pretty girl rejects him, he will get the next one… Except for @TugHillMatt, of course. He is stuck with the 3’s and 4’s at closing time… Expand On 1/30/2022 at 5:51 PM, Thinksnow18 said: I’m thinking a warm February is as likely as TugHill winning the golden snowball Expand I try to hide in the background for a bit and somebody "mentions" me. I am glad to see my cynicism and blathering of the Tughillory Curse provide entertainment for our subforum. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Speaking of which....there is always one model that shows it...every run... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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