Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Mixed feeling about hanging on [email protected] for the midweek event, parsing 10 mile wiggles in global model output. And it's Sunday, we're well outside the 1-2 day "lock it in" period. On the other hand, it's what we do. All signs point to a mixed glop here near Haus Sizzle. But better than the purifying 3 day meltdown advertised not too long ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Mixed feeling about hanging on [email protected] for the midweek event, parsing 10 mile wiggles in global model output. And it's Sunday, we're well outside the 1-2 day "lock it in" period. On the other hand, it's what we do. All signs point to a mixed glop here near Haus Sizzle. But better than the purifying 3 day meltdown advertised not too long ago. Yeah looking like I need to hope for sleet this far east. Not interested remotely yet and won't care until Tuesday even if it was showing 2ft. Frontal systems like this suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 hours ago, tombo82685 said: that final wave I don't think os for us. 2 waves. First is ours, second is bgm and maybe i95. Unless this full on phases with southern stream disturbance, which I don't think it will, that cold will press bndry Question, does this midweek system qualify (in general) as an SWFE? Seems like it would but I'm not sure that there's a commonly accepted definition for these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 What is swfe stand for 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Question, does this midweek system qualify (in general) as an SWFE? Seems like it would but I'm not sure that there's a commonly accepted definition for these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: What is safe stand for Southwest flow event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: What is safe stand for Southwest Flow Event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Southwest flow event 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Southwest Flow Event. Ag3ed you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Question, does this midweek system qualify (in general) as an SWFE? Seems like it would but I'm not sure that there's a commonly accepted definition for these. it looks either anafrontal to me or overunning. Wave forms along front, which is anafrontal. You can also argue overrunning because cold high in place which is aiding in the heavy precip due to sharp thermal contrast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ag3ed you Is he still around? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: it looks either anafrontal to me or overunning. Wave forms along front, which is anafrontal. You can also argue overrunning because cold high in place which is aiding in the heavy precip due to sharp thermal contrast Definitely more of a anafrontal event to me which is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Is he still around? Yes but not on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 -21 lowville 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 -16 here. The high today should be in the low to mid 20s so almost a 40 degree temperature rise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes but not on here Who? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Anafrontals are tough to forecast. We had a lot of them last year and the year before. Lots of disappointments. These A’s have been a lot more fun to watch. It’s pretty surprising how consistent the models have been in the last 24 hours showing a colder event. I feel like I remember lots of anafrontal systems that went very NW in the final 2 day frame. ?? My memory is not great though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Anafrontals are tough to forecast. We had a lot of them last year and the year before. Lots of disappointments. These A’s have been a lot more fun to watch. It’s pretty surprising how consistent the models have been in the last 24 hours showing a colder event. I feel like I remember lots of anafrontal systems that went very NW in the final 2 day frame. ?? My memory is not great though They def can because models often times rush the cold air and adjust closer in. But not often you have a 1040+mb high slamming in from the west. How much energy phases in the south is the key part. More energy phases further west it goes. Less energy phases south it goes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Anafrontals are tough to forecast. We had a lot of them last year and the year before. Lots of disappointments. These A’s have been a lot more fun to watch. It’s pretty surprising how consistent the models have been in the last 24 hours showing a colder event. I feel like I remember lots of anafrontal systems that went very NW in the final 2 day frame. ?? My memory is not great though I'm feeling reasonably confident for ~6" SN and a bag of garbage thrown in also, for Haus Sizzle. Seems like Feb provides better chances for arctic air pushes. I think KBGM or KBUF mentioned favorable climatology regarding the arctic air progression. @tombo82685has pretty well laid out what could most likely Bollocks things up...amount of phasing and timing of the system in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Tidbits has 6z Euro up to 90 hours now?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tidbits has 6z Euro up to 90 hours now?! Sweet!!!! This too! did you happen to see how long it took out to come out post run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Anafrontals are tough to forecast. We had a lot of them last year and the year before. Lots of disappointments. These A’s have been a lot more fun to watch. It’s pretty surprising how consistent the models have been in the last 24 hours showing a colder event. I feel like I remember lots of anafrontal systems that went very NW in the final 2 day frame. ?? My memory is not great though Agreed. However, if what some of the modeling is showing is true, this anafrontal has an immense channel of gulf stream moisture overriding a very strong arctic high. It has crazy potential. It's a rare setup. You know how hard it is to get 2-2.5" of qpf frozen around WNY without the lakes? To see it possibly happen twice within a month would be pretty rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 The ratios in massachusetts were higher than I thought. A few reports. Far SE Mass had lower ratios vs N/NE Mass where more cold air was. These are just from yesterday, most of these spots had snow reports the previous day too. 1.01=22" .85=27.5" 1.20=17.5" 1.17=15" .90=18" 1.81"=24" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ofcourse icon skips 21 hours of storm when its at its peak here. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The ratios in massachusetts were higher than I thought. A few reports. Far SE Mass had lower ratios vs N/NE Mass where more cold air was. These are just from yesterday, most of these spots had snow reports the previous day too. 1.01=22" .85=27.5" 1.20=17.5" 1.17=15" .90=18" 1.81"=24" Looks about right. They were expecting 15-20/1 ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ofcourse icon skips 21 hours of storm when its at its peak here. Lol Looks like it goes over SE NY . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Definitely south compared to last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Early GFS looks like another possible SE tick is coming… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Early GFS looks like another possible SE tick is coming… Yup, less phasing. Colder push from clipper being further east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Feel bad for the midwest crew. They've been screwed most of the year with snowstorms. Looks like this will be another one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 This could be a beaut. Good news is that the phasing aspects are not that far away on the models - and that is so huge for us downstream… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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