TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Nope, I think you will be shovelling 4+ from wed-friday system I think this will be our best shot in some time, as I agree that there's lots of cold air pressing down. I just can't allow myself to get too excited after the many letdowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 GEFS is really far NW. It jacks Chicago. GFS is going to crash and burn or score a coop. I'd favor the former 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Think the max is around where this guy was. Top of his snowblower is 26" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 I'd favor a more amped system to get more QPF. Euro is a run of the mill system. GFS is where its at, just need that further SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Wpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Still showing a fairly wet system..1"-2"+ LE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Euro going to be more progressive at 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Euro going to be more progressive at 18z Yep I noticed less phasing and more push up north as well. See what the eps does shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 It seems ridiculous to be so fixated on these roll-outs but really these ARE the big money runs before they lock-in and start more ‘fine-tuning’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It seems ridiculous to be so fixated on these roll-outs but really these ARE the big money runs before they lock-in and start more ‘fine-tuning’. Esp this year cuz of most of us being well bn in snowfall ytd. We're getting desperate lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Already down to -2 F here… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Already down to -2 F here… Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yep I noticed less phasing and more push up north as well. See what the eps does shortly. eps goign that way too. Should see first wave on front that favored canada to be further south to hit kbuf to kart, then secondary wave to be further south. Maybe a track along or south of i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Thing that sucks is, the stronger piece of energy, the southern stream energy is the caboose in all of this and I think that track may favor bgm or south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Thing that sucks is, the stronger piece of energy, the southern stream energy is the caboose in all of this and I think that track may favor bgm or south And if suppressed its weak sauce in terms of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: And if suppressed its weak sauce in terms of QPF. yea, i think in general it would whiff us. The lead wave that rides the front wed night into thursday AM is probably our shot. 2nd wave I think is bgm on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 18z eps SE of 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Think the max is around where this guy was. Top of his snowblower is 26" That looks like a solid 10:1 pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, vortmax said: That looks like a solid 10:1 pack. That is definitely NOT fake snow. I was just thinking this storm was another great example of why 10:1 is preferred over Kuchie in synoptic situations. Those ridiculous kuchie maps did not verify but the 10:1 sure did. still coming down in Worcester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 24 minutes ago, vortmax said: That looks like a solid 10:1 pack. It averaged 1:15 to 1:17 if you look at Boston Logan is was even higher. Definitely not 1:10. Will know exact ratios in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: That is definitely NOT fake snow. I was just thinking this storm was another great example of why 10:1 is preferred over Kuchie in synoptic situations. Those ridiculous kuchie maps did not verify but the 10:1 sure did. still coming down in Worcester No one had 3.10” of qpf near Boston today. Report of 31” in taughton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: It averaged 1:15 to 1:17 if you look at Boston Logan is was even higher. Definitely not 1:10. Will know exact ratios in the morning Their omega lined up well in dgz. But when you have that much wind it can fracture dendrites and lead lower ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Their omega lined up well in dgz. But when you have that much wind it can fracture dendrites and lead lower ratios Did you see Logan’s qpf on its 24”? Has to be something wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 38 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Did you see Logan’s qpf on its 24”? Has to be something wrong The ASOS always low balls in snow with qpf. I would say look at coocorahs reports in that area for better liquid equiv. It happened with philly today. I'm down there actually right now. The asos only melted down .33 qpf with 7.5" of snow, thats way off. So in their daily climate report they have it as a M until they can determine a qpf for it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 gfs going the progressive route moreso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Guys, When should I be back in Cicero for weather purposes that is? I'm thinking of leaving LI Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Awesome radar loop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 GFS is a weenie run, especially for WNY/NNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Literal beaches on the Atlantic ocean have done better than some upstate places this year. Just crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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