Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[tombo82685]

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

So you're going with closer to a Ukie look with us in between the best of both systems?

I just think models will start catching up on that cold press. That’s a big man high pushing on that front. Unless piece of the tpv really phases in I’m not buying the stationary front with waves riding up it. I think it’s the frontal precip then thermal bndry goes south then final wave rides that bndry Not sure how far south that second wave goes. But would not shock me if it goes to i95 or cuse to bgm hit. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, tombo82685 said:

I just think models will start catching up on that cold press. That’s a big man high pushing on that front. Unless piece of the tpv really phases in I’m not buying the stationary front with waves riding up it. I think it’s the frontal precip then front comes through for final wave. Not sure how far south that second wave goes. But would not shock me if it goes to i95 or cuse to bgm hit. 

Its anyones guess. Remember the 3 day torch showing up on all ENS 3-4 days ago? It showed 40s for 3 straight days here and a max high of 58 on Weds lol

[rochesterdave]

Tom, what maps do you look at for the polar vortex? The 500 vorticity? And do you look at the inner core or the outer ring(if that makes sense?)

[rochesterdave]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its anyones guess. Remember the 3 day torch showing up on all ENS 3-4 days ago? It showed 40s for 3 straight days here and a max high of 58 on Weds lol

Do I. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Tuesdays run of the GFS vs todays same timestamp. Only a 44 degree difference over 3 days lol

[wolfie09]

[tombo82685]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its anyones guess. Remember the 3 day torch showing up on all ENS 3-4 days ago? It showed 40s for 3 straight days here and a max high of 58 on Weds lol

Yea I remember rochesterdave posting all those 11 day gfs maps and I said ens look way different 

[tombo82685]

16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Tom, what maps do you look at for the polar vortex? The 500 vorticity? And do you look at the inner core or the outer ring(if that makes sense?)

Any h5 map shows it. This is h5 anom map. Can see the southern s/w then tpv up in central Canada. Can see the piece of energy rotating around tpv that is what gfs phases in and what would promote a stronger cutter and se ridge.  Euro keeps pieces disconnected 

[wolfie09]

Now that's what you call a light wind lol Be lucky to make it to pulaski 5 miles inland..

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I remember rochesterdave posting all those 11 day gfs maps and I said ens look way different 

The ENS looked nearly as warm though. NWS wouldn't forecast a high above 40 for 3 straight days unless the models/ENS showed it around here. The ENS can change pretty drastically too. The GEFS for the storm we got hit with were all showing max snowfall far SE, they were absolutely terrible for that storm and the OP won out. They were hundreds of miles off within a few days time.

[BuffaloWeather]

CIPS analogs. I like the look

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F132&rundt=2022012912&map=thbCOOP72

This would be a good one

 

[wolfie09]

Tea kettle
type band over mid lake will head toward eastern shore late
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The ultimate landing spot
for this band on eastern shore of Lake Ontario will be highly
dictated by weak wind field/mesoscale processes that are hard to
determine yet. But, if that band comes onshore, potential is
there for several inches of fluffy snow due to strong low-level
convergence helped out by overall weak convergence as the
clipper moves through and also a favorable profile with lake
EQLs up to 8kft and good portion of the lake convective layer in
the DGZ. SLRs could only be increased due to the light winds.
Using output from the Canadian-regional and NAM increased snow
amounts toward Jefferson and Oswego county border, but didn`t
extend this too far inland with the light winds. Some hint that
passage of trough could shove this band back more over southeast
shore of Lake Ontario late Sunday night or it may just dissolve
as winds become variable and eventually push it back across the
open waters of the lake into Monday morning. Meantime, off Lake
Erie with sw flow, temps plenty cold enough at top of inversion
and still enough open water, there could be a few snow showers
impacting Buffalo Metro at times Sun night into Monday morning,
though nothing really shows near as much as the activity east of
Lake Ontario. Away from the lake effect Sun and Sun night it
will be not as cold with highs on Sun in the 20s and lows in the
single digits Sun night.

[Sub_Zero]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How bad was it up there?

It was really bad. Some places had no power for a month, with temperatures in the -20’sF.  Insane tree damage, it was surreal.  

[BGM Blizzard]

12z Eps mean has more spread vs 0z

[tombo82685]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The ENS looked nearly as warm though. NWS wouldn't forecast a high above 40 for 3 straight days unless the models/ENS showed it around here. The ENS can change pretty drastically too. The GEFS for the storm we got hit with were all showing max snowfall far SE, they were absolutely terrible for that storm and the OP won out. They were hundreds of miles off within a few days time.

That’s the gefs day 12 for this coming Thursday that’s barely abv normal

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2022012212&fh=318

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That’s the gefs day 12 for this coming Thursday that’s barely abv normal

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2022012212&fh=318

A few days after, closer to the event they were pretty warm though. From Tuesday.

[tombo82685]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A few days after, closer to the event they were pretty warm though. From Tuesday.

Yea that’s a torch. But what I’m saying is when Dave was posting that they weren’t in agreement with a torch yet 

[tombo82685]

5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

12z Eps mean has more spread vs 0z

Think you’re seeing what I’m saying. Instead of front stalled and same areas getting hit, it’s more progressive spreading wealth out 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea that’s a torch. But what I’m saying is when Dave was posting that they weren’t in agreement with a torch yet 

Yeah I guess my point was Ensembles can make make some pretty big run to run changes. Obviously not as big as OP models can.

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

12z Eps mean has more spread vs 0z

Some good trends there. Those are high totals for an EPS mean.

[rochesterdave]

On top of it, GEFS has a cold bias. And OP has performed much better this season. But I’m glad IF I’m wrong about the torch. We’ve had a pretty amplified winter. Still lots of scenarios in play. But headed in a better direction to be sure. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Feel pretty confident Boston will have its biggest ever snowstorm today. Pretty incredible. Logan was over 17" at 2 pm. Likely over 19" by now.

https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/01/28/top-10-boston-area-snowstorms-on-record/

1. Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches
2. Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches
3. April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches
4. Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches
5. Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches
6. Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches
7. Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches
8. Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches
9. Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches
10. Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches

[vortmax]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Feel pretty confident Boston will have its biggest ever snowstorm today. Pretty incredible. Logan was over 17" at 2 pm. Likely over 19" by now.

https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/01/28/top-10-boston-area-snowstorms-on-record/

1. Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches
2. Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches
3. April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches
4. Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches
5. Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches
6. Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches
7. Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches
8. Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches
9. Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches
10. Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches

That certainly is a derelict band.

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, vortmax said:

That certainly is a derelict band.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBOS.html

[tim123]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Feel pretty confident Boston will have its biggest ever snowstorm today. Pretty incredible. Logan was over 17" at 2 pm. Likely over 19" by now.

https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/01/28/top-10-boston-area-snowstorms-on-record/

1. Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches
2. Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches
3. April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches
4. Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches
5. Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches
6. Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches
7. Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches
8. Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches
9. Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches
10. Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches

Surprised no march in top 10

[vortmax]

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Surprised no march in top 10

Pretty interesting that 9 of 10 are within a 25-day period from late Jan-mid Feb. Obviously the climatologically favored timeframe for a whopper (HECS).

[tim123]

That April 1 at top 3 is truly impressive 

[vortmax]

Just now, tim123 said:

That April 1 at top 3 is truly impressive 

Agreed. Massive anomaly.

[BuffaloWeather]

Erie you let me down this year. You had so much potential and only one really good event. Cold and dry was the motto. I'll see you next year.

[tim123]

4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Surprised no march in top 10

Notice all the top snowfalls are contemporary years. So much for global warming