tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:00 AM, Syrmax said: Thanks. Was unsure about the T. Sounds more Sciency than just PV. Expand There is the SPV which is the stratospheric PV which what you watch for wave 1 or 2 hits and SSW. Then you have the tropsopheric PV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:22 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Expand Cold too as storm goes on. Falls into low teens at end of storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Can see form the gfs, while the clipper didn't track far south, the s/w entering in the west didn't phase as strong as 18z and 12z. The trough was more pos tilted. Then you have the cold press from the tpv coming east north of the lakes. Its a true overunning pipeline of moisture 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Goddamn M’fing Syracuse screw zone! Seriously!! Sizzlecuse BS!!! (Hehe, just wanted to bear him to it) But I do feel his pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Over 2" of QPF frozen here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 You never want to be in jackpot zone 5 days before event. It's going to change quite a bit next few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 With ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:25 AM, tombo82685 said: Can see form the gfs, while the clipper didn't track far south, the s/w entering in the west didn't phase as strong as 18z and 12z. The trough was more pos tilted. Then you have the cold press from the tpv coming east north of the lakes. Its a true overunning pipeline of moisture Expand I saw that clipper cruising a bit north and got nervous. It’s all so complex. I’m happy to see that HP pushing a lobe east and south throughout the event. Hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:26 AM, BuffaloWeather said: You never want to be in jackpot zone 5 days before event. It's going to change quite a bit next few days. Expand True but from what it looked like couple days ago. Huge change for the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:27 AM, rochesterdave said: I saw that clipper cruising a bit north and got nervous. It’s all so complex. I’m happy to see that HP pushing a lobe east and south throughout the event. Hope Expand That is more common in jan feb march. The cold pressing more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 ggem looks pretty good to my eyes at hr 144, but thats way out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:27 AM, rochesterdave said: I saw that clipper cruising a bit north and got nervous. It’s all so complex. I’m happy to see that HP pushing a lobe east and south throughout the event. Hope Expand Yup, the northern stream energy not phasing as much with the ULL down in the baja compensated for that cause it stretched the trough more towards pos tilted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:29 AM, tombo82685 said: ggem looks pretty good to my eyes at hr 144, but thats way out in time Expand Yeah its pretty close to GFS through 120. Either way warm up canceled, next week should be fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Another storm right behind that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:31 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah its pretty close to GFS through 120. Either way warm up canceled, next week should be fun! Expand Looks like RN to backend SN for KSYR at this point but still way out there in time. Doesn't really matter anymore here for season saving purposes that war has already been lost. Maybe win a few skirmishes here and there. Will be interesting to see models over next 6 days. At least they won't be fighting complex thermodynamic processes ala the current system, so maybe a smoother ride? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:37 AM, Syrmax said: Looks like RN to backend SN for KSYR at this point but still way out there in time. Doesn't really matter anymore here for season saving purposes that war has already been lost. Maybe win a few skirmishes here and there. Will be interesting to see models over next 6 days. At least they won't be fighting complex thermodynamic processes ala the current system, so maybe a smoother ride? Expand Definitely 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Always green over syr. Are they pointing heater at the sky over there. Good lord. Every storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 This is def a setup that can trend much colder and push everything south. If it misses that phases the tpv cold push with that big high can really bully themal bndry south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Feel like I'm more worried about supression than too amped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:46 AM, tombo82685 said: This is def a setup that can trend much colder and push everything south. If it misses that phases the tpv cold push with that big high can really bully themal bndry south Expand lol same thought at same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Cmc looks like a crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:46 AM, BuffaloWeather said: Feel like I'm more worried about supression than too amped. Expand In Feb...and this pattern...yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:48 AM, tim123 said: Cmc looks like a crusher. Expand Awful model. Except when it agrees with me as in this storm of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:47 AM, BuffaloWeather said: lol same thought at same time. Expand Its a fickle setup. You want a phase, but not to much where it flies nw, but if it misses it, then gets suppressed south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 Crushed. Lets sink that 50 miles south to get the rest of us in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:25 AM, rochesterdave said: Goddamn M’fing Syracuse screw zone! Seriously!! Sizzlecuse BS!!! (Hehe, just wanted to bear him to it) But I do feel his pain. Expand On 1/29/2022 at 4:41 AM, tim123 said: Always green over syr. Are they pointing heater at the sky over there. Good lord. Every storm Expand YUP.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 00Z NAM close to taking away the football on this developing weekend ocean storm. NYC looks like 6" per NAM. My forecast for 4.5" at Norfolk is doomed. I knew it would be half that, just got hurried in the forecast. I might be ok at DCA/IAD/BWR as warm temps have precluded much snow accumulation so far and i have them all around 2-3". NE has to be melting over the 0Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Author Share Posted January 29, 2022 GEFS are further NW than OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Let's move everything 50 to 100 miles farther south and then lock it in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 5:18 AM, TugHillMatt said: Let's move everything 50 to 100 miles farther south and then lock it in. Expand Be nice to get a uniform snowfall for all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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