Syrmax Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah the low jumping back SE actually hurts their chances of a big one I think? +NAO, upper level too pos tilt and slp too far offshore. This isn't likely region wide epic. A good storm though for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: +NAO, upper level too pos tilt and slp too far offshore. This isn't likely region wide epic. A good storm though for the coast. This is the warmest frame on the GFS. @TugHillMatt your snowpack might be ok 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'm actually not lamenting a weak cutter with a brief warm up. Getting a bit tired of the cold and dry. Was -20 again here this morning. The roads and my car could badly use a washing off of the road salt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is the warmest frame on the GFS. @TugHillMatt your snowpack might be ok IDK. This frame is still pretty warm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: IDK. This frame is still pretty warm 30 for roc and 23 for buf? for central ny a little warmer ya. It was showing mid/high 40s for 3 days yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS says what thaw? Wow check out hour 240+ Could be Lake Erie last hoorah with a lake effect blizzard! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: IDK. This frame is still pretty warm 6 hours later it’s 20 degrees colder in KSYR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 You guys are also implying the GFS is correct lol The euro stalls the front to our west. This high pressure will slowly nudge eastward Tuesday - Thursday with an initial cold front nearing our region Tuesday - Wednesday. This front will stall, bringing low chances for rain showers Tuesday Night and Wednesday, this as a much stronger surface low forms over the Southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: You guys are also implying the GFS is correct lol The euro stalls the front to our west. This high pressure will slowly nudge eastward Tuesday - Thursday with an initial cold front nearing our region Tuesday - Wednesday. This front will stall, bringing low chances for rain showers Tuesday Night and Wednesday, this as a much stronger surface low forms over the Southern Plains. Yeah GEM is warm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Getting some"steady* snow here but the good stuff is just to the north, Canadian guidance keeps it mostly intact on its way south, hoping to wake up to a few inches.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 0z Euro is backing off on the thaw next Thursday with a potential snow storm too closer to GFS. Something to watch now, at least. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Leelee said: 0z Euro is backing off on the thaw next Thursday with a potential snow storm too closer to GFS. Something to watch now, at least. Wow what a change on euro. Verbatim big ice Genesee valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 We are not far away from a nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 41 minutes ago, 96blizz said: We are not far away from a nice event It's a week out. I can't do this again... wont take anything serious till 72hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1.4” overnight and snowing decent. Nice pack refresher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is the warmest frame on the GFS. @TugHillMatt your snowpack might be ok This is a huge change. I was watching 4 this morning and Mike showed the LR forecast and said tricky storm…I thought that’s gotta be a mistake it’s supposed to be an easy Rainer…nope… 6z gfs would be an ice storm and the euro a big hit snowstorm. That’s a big change and both models are on the same page with a shift of the LP south or just overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Interesting trends overnight for the coastal, but probably game over for me seeing >6” still, sneaking a nice advisory event would be fine even if it gets massively dwarfed by whatever maximums there are on LI and due east from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: Interesting trends overnight for the coastal, but probably game over for me seeing >6” still, sneaking a nice advisory event would be fine even if it gets massively dwarfed by whatever maximums there are on LI and due east from there The 6z euro shifted west again. After March 2017 you keep watching coastals all the way to the finish line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, 96blizz said: The 6z euro shifted west again. After March 2017 you keep watching coastals all the way to the finish line. One certainty is that ratios here far inland will be much better than on the coastlines. Longer duration light snow could totally still stack up a solid 4”+. The least BGM should, and probably would do, is issue advisories for the southeast counties (including mine) this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 NYC Office put up its advisories over night and the OC is under a watch. Interested to see if this thing keeps coming west. Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 @TugHillMatt@Syrmax @wolfie09 heading to LI now from Catskills , wish me luck ! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 We are right on the cusp of getting a few inches tomorrow. It’s gonna be close. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, sferic said: @TugHillMatt@Syrmax @wolfie09 heading to LI now from Catskills , wish me luck ! Be careful. We needs pics 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 My boys enjoying this mornings snow. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, 96blizz said: My boys enjoying this mornings snow. Raising the next generation of weather weenies? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 51 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: NYC Office put up its advisories over night and the OC is under a watch. Interested to see if this thing keeps coming west. Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Going all the way to the wire, that’s for sure. One thing is for sure: if you do pull 8”, I get 5”, and then 50-100 miles east of us doubles you and triples me I might not sleep well for the next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I got my lake effect surprise finally. Models showed the tug hill sucker hole got over 2” here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 31 minutes ago, sferic said: @TugHillMatt@Syrmax @wolfie09 heading to LI now from Catskills , wish me luck ! Safe travels and have a great time! I went to Cicero last night and noticed there was less snow there than on this side of the county. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Picked up about 1.5 inches in this morning's burst of snow and still lightly snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Measured 1.3 inches here this morning and still coming down lightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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