wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 A cold south to southwest flow ahead an approaching cold front will promote the development of lake snows northeast of both lakes early this evening. Some shear and a cap averaging 5kft will initially limit the ability of the lake snow response...but as winds back from 220 to 240 during the course of the evening...the cap will elevate a bit and a deep 5kft DGZ will be in place. This should promote very efficient snow making in both the BUF and ART metro areas for the first half of the night with snowfall rates possibly exceeding an inch per hour. By midnight...the flow will veer to about 260 which will push the heart of the snowbands into the Buffalo Southtowns and towards the Tug Hill. Rates will remain the same as described above but the bands will now be more progressive. By daybreak...the steering flow should be 290-300 with the heavier snows being pushed into the Southern Tier and Oswego county respectively. Winter weather advisories have been expanded to include Chautauqua and southern Erie counties for the Lk Erie activity...and have been extended inland across Lewis county for the band off Ontario. On Friday...high pressure extending from the central plains to the Upper Great Lakes will set up a north to northeast flow of increasingly cold sub arctic air. Afternoon temps will be in the teens across the western counties and in the single digits across parts of the North Country. The cold northerly flow will keep lake snows south-southeast of both lakes...but with a lowering cap accums will be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 The GEFS are pretty far SE with next weeks storm, they look nothing like the OP. Wouldn't be surprised to see 18Z be less cutterish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This warmth, peaking Thursday coupled with a southerly breeze and dewpoints rising above freezing will put a major dent into our existing deep snowpack. Biggest drop in the snowpack will likely be Thursday when a primed snowpack encounters an airmass that will likely bring air temperatures to 50F if not warmer to WNY along with a period of rain. Late next week will need to be watched for possible ice jams along with any flooding with the combination of rain and snowmelt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GEFS are pretty far SE with next weeks storm, they look nothing like the OP. Wouldn't be surprised to see 18Z be less cutterish. Whenever we've had cutters show up in the long range this season (December), they have usually ended up much weaker and farther south. Perhaps we revert back to that situation...but hopefully with it being February, we get better results. But then, the GEFS are often the SE outliers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Judah Cohen said February will be brutal cold month so where's the blowtorch guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, brentrich said: Judah Cohen said February will be brutal cold month so where's the blowtorch guys? For the last time it's a 3 day warm up dude, no one is saying it won't be cold in the LR..If the euro is correct it will be in the 50s on Friday for CNY.. This will cause snow to melt. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: For the last time it's a 3 day warm up dude, no one is saying it won't be cold in the LR..If the euro is correct it will be in the 50s on Friday for CNY.. This will cause snow to melt. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Ha ha I know. I'm kidding. I have solid 10 inches of snow in Rochester, NY. Hopefully it doesn't go away 100%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: For the last time it's a 3 day warm up dude, no one is saying it won't be cold in the LR..If the euro is correct it will be in the 50s on Friday for CNY.. This will cause snow to melt. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Haha! I was thinking the same thing. We are winter weenies and nobody on here is touting huge blowtorch all month. There's a thaw coming (boo) and the map he posted isn't "brutal cold" either. lol... Even it's just a map for a several day stretch. Oh, and good for Judah Cohen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Haha! I was thinking the same thing. We are winter weenies and nobody on here is touting huge blowtorch all month. There's a thaw coming (boo) and the map he posted isn't "brutal cold" either. lol... Even it's just a map for a several day stretch. Oh, and good for Judah Cohen. The EPS are much less torchy too. The "warm" weeklies are now cold. Weeklies are useless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 There is actually a sneaky small wave/clipper late Sunday/early Monday too before the warmup. RGEM nails wolf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lol yeah I noticed but rgem still in it's LR.. NWS did make note of it... The surface ridge axis moves further into the region Sunday. Moisture will continue to increase across Lake Erie Sunday and light snow is possible across western NY with lake enhancement east of Lake Erie. Lake snows possible east-northeast of Lake Ontario with minor accumulation expected. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 20s across western NY and to the teens across the North Country Sunday. Lake aggregate troughing expected Sunday night and lake snows possible close to the lake shores. Temperatures will fall to the single digits Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 You know how there was some discussion about DT on here earlier? I also was a part of Eastern and remember his violent outbursts. Anyways... how does the man expect people to take him any more seriously than they do JB when he posts maps like the "Start Time" map below? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 39 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This warmth, peaking Thursday coupled with a southerly breeze and dewpoints rising above freezing will put a major dent into our existing deep snowpack. Biggest drop in the snowpack will likely be Thursday when a primed snowpack encounters an airmass that will likely bring air temperatures to 50F if not warmer to WNY along with a period of rain. Late next week will need to be watched for possible ice jams along with any flooding with the combination of rain and snowmelt. Might see some ice buildup at Niagara Falls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS starting to get onboard.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GEFS are pretty far SE with next weeks storm, they look nothing like the OP. Wouldn't be surprised to see 18Z be less cutterish. Nice thought but it’s going to be a giant cutter like on EURO. GEFS are terrible at this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: 6+ is sucking on exhaust? Take a look at the h5 and then get back to me. Take that fake smart guy schtick over to the New England forum, pal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: You know how there was some discussion about DT on here earlier? I also was a part of Eastern and remember his violent outbursts. Anyways... how does the man expect people to take him any more seriously than they do JB when he posts maps like the "Start Time" map below? This is why we love HeWhoShallNotBeNamed. (DT)! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, brentrich said: Judah Cohen said February will be brutal cold month so where's the blowtorch guys? Judah Ben Hur called the Blizzard of 1888 correct. Not much since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 hours ago, champy said: It's either gonna be an epic storm or an epic meltdown. I personally can't stand a few members in the NE forum, so I wanna see some crying. I love the Schadenfreude Karma here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Nice thought but it’s going to be a giant cutter like on EURO. GEFS are terrible at this There will be definitely be a cutter, but not buying 3 day torch like some of the models are showing. I do think we max out around 50 degrees ahead of that system though. Downsloping never fails. GFS went quite a bit further SE This is warmest frame of GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Right along the water would be pretty intense 2 feet of snow and gust over 50 MPH. @Syrmax you chasing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Right along the water would be pretty intense 2 feet of snow and gust over 50 MPH. @Syrmax you chasing? Reed Timmer will be on the Cape. Can't wait to see his live feeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Reed Timmer will be on the Cape. Can't wait to see his live feeds. 7 hour drive from here. I'm tempted as I'm done watching football for rest of the year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: So you’re saying there’s still a chance? . My kind of forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 About as good as you can get for Bos, locked and loaded someone is getting 3' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: About as good as you can get for Bos, locked and loaded someone is getting 3' That defo near Worcester might be the king maker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: That defo near Worcester might be the king maker 964 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 How come we never get dynamic cooling like this shows? Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Well we need a snowstorm first lol Not one that travels to JT.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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