Syrmax Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Don Sutherland is still here I see his climate posts all the time. Yes he is. Very solid poster. He's always the bogeyman to beat in the ne.wx contests. Which, I might add, i did for Contest #2 this season, placing #1, for the WNY bomb. I have a secret sauce in-house model. I'm always amazed more ppl dont particiapte. Maybe its marketing. Its rigorous and covers 27 east coast stations but not SYR and BUF bc LES interference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 00z Euro warm storm. We've seen that sleet profile before up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NWS has 4-6” here tonight. We’ll see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: A video I put together from our walk in the woods over the weekend. This is a local park 8 minutes from my house. It has so many beautiful trails. Beautiful dog. Someday you might find this and the best part about it will be the dog. ❤️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Hmmm. TT has an EC-fast model now. Goes out to 72 hours. I know yesterday that they started making more of their data available, I wonder if this is part of that. NAM is pretty wide btw. And when the NAM is wide at 54 hours…….god I’d hate to be a NYC weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Beautiful dog. Someday you might find this and the best part about it will be the dog. ❤️ He won't live forever I want to look back at all the good times we had. Thanks Dave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAM was big hit for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 That would be worth a chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That would be worth a chase Brings measurable snow right up to Albany. Only 150 miles to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 All the 12Z runs pretty much show the continuation of all the Upstate snowbelts except the CNY one getting some more lake effect snows. Western NY has been cashing in synoptically and lake effect-wise while we continue to "penny our way" to a third of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Brings measurable snow right up to Albany. Only 150 miles to go! Can we "Cleveland" our way to a measurable snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Long Island here I come ( layover tonight in Liberty NY though) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: NWS has 4-6” here tonight. We’ll see what happens. Leaving the window open for an overachiever I guess… chances for snow ramp up near the lakes due to sw low-level flow, convergence ahead of the front and sufficiently cold air for a lake response. Majority of moisture is below 10kft but lift in that layer is decent as seen by low-level omega toward northeast end of both lakes. Since the arctic front does not arrive until after 09z east of Lake Erie and toward 12z or even afterward east and southeast of Lake Ontario, low-level flow does not veer too quickly, allowing sw-w flow to stay locked in place. Though not many models show it outright, did increase QPF/snow some to east of Lake Erie especially into Southern Erie and over western Chautauqua county given potential that stronger band forming this evening into Metro Buffalo could stall out for a while over these areas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Long Island here I come ( layover tonight in Liberty NY though) You'll be in my neck of the woods. Not a bad spot to make an L.I run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, CoolMikeWx said: You'll be in my neck of the woods. Not a bad spot to make an L.I run. Yup, passing Best buy and the Galleria by exit 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Leaving the window open for an overachiever I guess… chances for snow ramp up near the lakes due to sw low-level flow, convergence ahead of the front and sufficiently cold air for a lake response. Majority of moisture is below 10kft but lift in that layer is decent as seen by low-level omega toward northeast end of both lakes. Since the arctic front does not arrive until after 09z east of Lake Erie and toward 12z or even afterward east and southeast of Lake Ontario, low-level flow does not veer too quickly, allowing sw-w flow to stay locked in place. Though not many models show it outright, did increase QPF/snow some to east of Lake Erie especially into Southern Erie and over western Chautauqua county given potential that stronger band forming this evening into Metro Buffalo could stall out for a while over these areas. What a month https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=buf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Yup, passing Best buy and the Galleria by exit 120 Haha that's my exit. I live five minutes from there ( I regular Best Buy due to impatience sometimes). Safe travels, I hope the metro area down there gets hammered a bit.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: uggghhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, sferic said: uggghhh Ha! Yup. Horrible. All of us East Coasters brought our bad mojo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha! Yup. Horrible. All of us East Coasters brought our bad mojo. Climo always wins out. You guys are in for some huge years coming up. This year still isn't over, Ontario doesn't freeze. February can be a good LES month for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Climo always wins out. You guys are in for some huge years coming up. This year still isn't over, Ontario doesn't freeze. February can be a good LES month for you. I believe WNW flow is most common in February? We need a combo of Synoptic snowfall and lake effect snowfall. One of them alone can't get us to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That would be worth a chase That’s Blizzard worthy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I’m at 45.0 inches for the season, almost 10 inches more than the airport that I’m 10 miles from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I believe WNW flow is most common in February? We need a combo of Synoptic snowfall and lake effect snowfall. One of them alone can't get us to average. There is no common wind direction by month, it all depends on the upper level pattern. You can get NW winds in November or in February. Obviously its more likely to get colder air in Feb vs Nov. A couple years back there was a 2 week period of SW flow in February that hammered watertown with 2-3 LES events, but Buffalo didn't get hit because of a frozen lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 GFS skirts the coast again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: I’m at 45.0 inches for the season, almost 10 inches more than the airport that I’m 10 miles from. Same! Northern part of the county is doing better. With our averages being higher, it's still a large deficit...not as extreme though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS skirts the coast again lol Wow, what a model battle going on right now. GFS just doesn’t want to budge run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Man last night euro was pretty ugly lol Pumping those southerlies for like 4 days..It's not 60s type torch but more low-mid 40s followed by some 50s just ahead of the front on Fri... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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