rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Looks like the GFS wants to wind up the storm at the end of next week and wipe out our snow cover with rain and mild temperatures. Then the next wave passes over us and gives us mixed precipitation. Ugly run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yikes… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 29 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Looks like the GFS wants to wind up the storm at the end of next week and wipe out our snow cover with rain and mild temperatures. Then the next wave passes over us and gives us mixed precipitation. You don't think some of the glacier will be able to survive mid 40s, rain, and high dewpoints? Could be lots of flooding with water not soaking into the ground and blocked drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 GEFS lean NW and same with GEPS, still think a big storm for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You don't think some of the glacier will be able to survive mid 40s, rain, and high dewpoints? Could be lots of flooding with water not soaking into the ground and blocked drains. If the GFS is correct which it isn't, sizzlecuse would have a shot at 60° and another rainmaker to follow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Last night's euro was so slow with the front we get 3-4 "Warm" days with AN temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 CPC picking up on the potential warmth.. Just "leaning" as of now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yeah Tuesday-Thursday next week look upper 30s-mid 40s with some potential rain. After that it looks to get colder than normal for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Euro followed and went further SE. GFS really has been leading the way all winter. Actually the next frame puts it back at BM, good storm for Boston 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Definitely went further SE but thats 23" max at 1:10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Sometimes we take our lakes for granted, not many people get to see so many micro climates like we do here in the winter. How cool is this 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Looks like Charlotte getting hammered now. My brother in West Webster got 2" from the meso. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Snowing pretty good near dunkirk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Powerful CF . KSyr drops 30° in 6 hours.. Granted it's 200 hours out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Powerful CF . KSyr drops 30° in 6 hours.. Granted it's 200 hours out lol Unfortunately most of the precipitation is on the warm side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 As of now it looks like an epic warm up with not one but two rain storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 this Lake Ontario band has been incredible to watch. Looks like it’s going to spin up into a bigger more defined swirl as it gets pushed north 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 36 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: As of now it looks like an epic warm up with not one but two rain storms. This is where it pays to be one of those weird “snowfall rate” guys rather than being one of the much cooler “snowpack” guys. 3 weeks of slowly building an almost decent snowpack gets washed away in a day or 3, then the painfully slow process starts over again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: this Lake Ontario band has been incredible to watch. Looks like it’s going to spin up into a bigger more defined swirl as it gets pushed north Heading towards Toronto? It looks like the band over the lake could be over the GTA right around rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: CPC picking up on the potential warmth.. Just "leaning" as of now.. I'm not seeing any blowtorch? Stilll showing 3 days of low 40's then back to 20's. Again I was right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Lol at NAM, coastal meltdowns on deck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Must be the increasing sun angle, 13° with sun and no wind feels ok lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 A southwest flow will continue through the first half of the Thursday night as a cold front rapidly approaches the region. Cold air advection aloft will move across the Lakes and a lake response will begin northeast of the Lakes Thursday evening. Snow showers will likely organize along the cold front as it moves through the region overnight. A few inches of snow is possible along the front with lake enhancement northeast of the Lakes Thursday evening moving southeast of the Lakes by Friday morning. East of Lake Erie... Snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches are possible, mainly from the Lake Erie shoreline from Chautauqua county into northern Erie and Genesee counties. Similarly east of Lake Ontario... snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches is possible across Jefferson county and northern Lewis counties Thursday night, moving south to Oswego county Friday morning. Additional snowfall accumulation from northwest flow may give northern Cayuga/Oswego counties a few more inches resulting in a potential Advisory late Thursday night-Friday morning. A west-northwest wind will move into the region overnight and temperatures will fall into the teens across western NY and single digits across the North Country. Light lake effect snow showers will continue across western NY Friday with the best chance southeast of Lake Ontario. Cold Friday, temperatures will peak in the teens to low 20s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The January thaw will commence Monday...the last day of January, and will peak just after the end of this forecast period. Deep southerly flow coupled with increasing heights aloft will allow for temperatures to increase towards the freezing mark Monday...and then approach the lower 40s Tuesday, and upper 40s Wednesday with a bit of a gusty southerly breeze. This southerly breeze will limit the cooling Tuesday Night, with temperatures dropping just a few degrees, especially across the Lake Plain. With surface high pressure anchored off to our east our region will remain dry through Wednesday afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 26 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: They’ve been NAMed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: They’ve been NAMed. The meltdowns are epic. But I feel the pain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro followed and went further SE. GFS really has been leading the way all winter. Actually the next frame puts it back at BM, good storm for Boston Has the jester dethroned the king? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Must be the increasing sun angle, 13° with sun and no wind feels ok lol I thought the exact same thing earlier! 19 felt like 32 in the brief sunshine we received today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 38 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Hey look the NAM jumped 300 miles in one run. I wouldnt worry yet, but the trend is there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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