Syrmax Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Weekend def a coastal storm. We won't have to nail bight how far west the good stuff ends up, Ala the NE and esp the NYC forum. Looks like 00Z Euro puts NYC on west edge of heavier totals with a sharp gradient. Almost no wiggle room there. 3.3"/0.16 LE yesterday. Not quite enough for a "Top 5" event here, only 7th as I did record two separate 3.5" snowfalls prior. About 7" over past 3 days and snowdepth almost a foot now. Combined with -7F this a.m., deep winter. These are the kind of wintry stretches you rarely get in more coastal or SE areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Weekend def a coastal storm. We won't have to nail bight how far west the good stuff ends up, Ala the NE and esp the NYC forum. Looks like 00Z Euro puts NYC on west edge of heavier totals with a sharp gradient. Almost no wiggle room there. 3.3"/0.16 LE yesterday. Not quite enough for a "Top 5" event here, only 7th as I did record two separate 3.5" snowfalls prior. About 7" over past 3 days and snowdepth almost a foot now. Combined with -7F this a.m., deep winter. These are the kind of wintry stretches you rarely get in more coastal or SE areas. We nickel and dime our way to glory! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Down at the harbor and it’s rippin! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Down at the harbor and it’s rippin! Just drove from south Buffalo into Hamburg, a little meso low action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 That band over Ontario is rippin, looks like it just moved onshore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just drove from south Buffalo into Hamburg, a little meso low action. Almost looks like the head of the Ontario band is getting sheared and pushed south. Few lighter returns floated over Ontario and then perked back up over Erie. Came down to do a scouting report on the ice but can’t see that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 3.3"/0.16 LE yesterday. Not quite enough for a "Top 5" event here, only 7th as I did record two separate 3.5" snowfalls prior. About 7" over past 3 days and snowdepth almost a foot now. Combined with -7F this a.m., deep winter. These are the kind of wintry stretches you rarely get in more coastal or SE areas. Same conditions here. The piles are looking better and better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Must have been a crazy meso low in Genesee county last night 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Could be some modest lake snows as cf comes past later in week as storm comes up coast. Orleans monroe wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 @Syrmax NAM would be chaseworthy 3-4' across SNE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam almost looks like cmc a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @Syrmax NAM would be chaseworthy 3-4' across SNE Ridiculous shift west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Ridiculous shift west. The NAM is always far west in its long range. Can expect a shift back to the globals within 1-2 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: The NAM is always far west in its long range. Can expect a shift back to the globals within 1-2 days Close to euro from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Close to euro from 06z Got 6z Euro maps? Awaiting PCR results I've been down for the count for 15 hours and lost. See GFS and UK are swimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Too little, too late. I agree with Buf here. Typical NAM bias. What you see here is likely the western most envelope. Glad I don’t live in Philly or Albany and get excited by this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Picked up another 1.6" between overnight and this mornings meso low. Just constant snow everyday all January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @Syrmax NAM would be chaseworthy 3-4' across SNE Interesting. Hadn't seen that yet. It's the NAM though. The other models still have me head scratching as to how much and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Got 6z Euro maps? Awaiting PCR results I've been down for the count for 15 hours and lost. See GFS and UK are swimming. Way to far east for western ny but some modest lake snow south of ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Interesting. Hadn't seen that yet. It's the NAM though. The other models still have me head scratching as to how much and where. I can almost guarantee the low pressure system will not do this track. Nam is such a trash model lol 81 vs 84 hour it goes back SW and strengthens, not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Got 6z Euro maps? Awaiting PCR results I've been down for the count for 15 hours and lost. See GFS and UK are swimming. My PCR was + on Sunday. So happy to be expecting. Flu/upper resp. cold symptoms basically (3x vax'd). GFS wants Flemish Cap, back to its old school OTS tricks probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I will make my decision whether to stay North of Syracuse in Cicero this weekend or head back to Lynbrook Long Island ( near JFK airport) I will wait for tonight's 00z runs Odds leaning for the trip to LI Potential of 12-18+ will be the decision maker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can almost guarantee the low pressure system will not do this track. Nam is such a trash model lol 81 vs 84 hour it goes back SW and strengthens, not happening Could be indicating a cyclonic loop, not unknown with rapidly intensifying systems (which this looks to be). But yeah...it's the NAM at 72+ hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, sferic said: I will make my decision whether to stay North of Syracuse in Cicero this weekend or head back to Lynbrook Long Island ( near JFK airport) I will wait for tonight's 00z runs Odds leaning for the trip to LI Potential of 12-18+ will be the decision maker There is no decision to make. If you have the time to go to long island you should go. What part of LI is your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Cool sat pic this am. Looks like 2 meso lows one over niagara region one near rochester. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, sferic said: I will make my decision whether to stay North of Syracuse in Cicero this weekend or head back to Lynbrook Long Island ( near JFK airport) I will wait for tonight's 00z runs Odds leaning for the trip to LI Potential of 12-18+ will be the decision maker Euro looks sick, if negative I should go to Queens. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Euro looks sick, if negative I should go to Queens. Don't blame you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can almost guarantee the low pressure system will not do this track. Nam is such a trash model lol 81 vs 84 hour it goes back SW and strengthens, not happening You can see what happens between 81 and 84 hours. At 81 hours there are 2 low centers, one southwest of the center marked with the L. At 84 hours the 2 centers consolidate and the resultant center is slightly south of the 81 hour center. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Cool sat pic this am. Looks like 2 meso lows one over niagara region one near rochester. Wow, check out the webcam on the bay bridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: You can see what happens between 81 and 84 hours. At 81 hours there are 2 low centers, one southwest of the center marked with the L. At 84 hours the 2 centers consolidate and the resultant center is slightly south of the 81 hour center. Didn't catch that, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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