Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Extrapolating that would be a hit for CNY Oh where art thou DGEX? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Starting to see some flakes flying here as this band is pretty"broad" and somewhat weak and disorganized with some embedded heavier burst . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Starting to see some flakes flying here as this band is pretty"broad" and somewhat weak and disorganized with some embedded heavier burst . Those heavier burst keep coming through here every 10 minutes lol. Whiteout to nothing, whiteout to nothing lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 24 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Long range NAM at 18z. Long way to go… No way I'm even remotely thinking the NAM has any clue yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I dunno. This seems rather “absolute” this far out but they are the pros! Only thing that disco is missing is reference to the 3 day blowtorch and purifying rains that await, about 7, 8 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Those heavier burst keep coming through here every 10 minutes lol. Whiteout to nothing, whiteout to nothing lol. It is really snowing here again. Radar shows multiple embedded heavy cells with breaks in between. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: It is really snowing here again. Radar shows multiple embedded heavy cells with breaks in between. 4 miles more south please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, sferic said: 4 miles more south please You should be catching the southern edge of the cell I’m in for at least a little while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS might explode on this run. H5 looks way better than 12z. Hopefully comes west a good bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: They wish. I've been working on my calves all winter for you in the gym. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Japanese model for kicks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: GFS might explode on this run. H5 looks way better than 12z. Hopefully comes west a good bit. Not so sure that matters as the high squashes its northward potential. The last storm had the high go underneath that low which caused it to go further NW then modeled the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not so sure that matters as the high squashes its northward potential. Yeah... f it lol. I'm about to give up. Nothing seems to matter. Thought for sure things might look different this run (not necessarily a hit for part of the forum) but the track played out about the same as 12z at the surface. O well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah... f it lol. I'm about to give up. Nothing seems to matter. You're right though as those 2 vorts caused it to bomb out quicker which would usually lead to a further NW track, but not with that high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah... f it lol. I'm about to give up. Nothing seems to matter. Thought for sure things might look different this run (not necessarily a hit for part of the forum) but the track played out about the same as 12z at the surface. O well. Yep. Ends the same. I was sure, with these changes, it would kick west. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 The max QPF in that storm is the same as it was in WNY for our last storm. 1.5-2.25" on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 That band has been consistent all day, any decent totals in it? Is that south of wolf and north of all the Syracuse guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've been working on my calves all winter for you in the gym. My wife: "Hey, hubby. What are you looking at?" Me: "Uh, Buffaloweather's legs..." My wife: "Umm..isn't that your weather board thing??" Me: "Yup...and those legs tell me all I need to know...." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah... f it lol. I'm about to give up. Nothing seems to matter. Thought for sure things might look different this run (not necessarily a hit for part of the forum) but the track played out about the same as 12z at the surface. O well. 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You're right though as those 2 vorts caused it to bomb out quicker which would usually lead to a further NW track, but not with that high to the north. Of course something wouldn't be placed right. There's always something...it's laughable at this point. Probably why Freak has given up on storm tracking for CNY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I’ll be pretty surprised if GEFS doesn’t come west. I think one of our issues is lack of any heights to the east. Pretty flat along the EC. But it was improved for sure. Just kind of weird that it ended up the same. ?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You're right though as those 2 vorts caused it to bomb out quicker which would usually lead to a further NW track, but not with that high to the north. Curious but true...there is no real Greenland blocking if you look at the wider NoAm panels but there is HP relatively anchored in Quebec. There's also not a trailing piece of upper level energy like the last system, so the timing is off, it maimtains a poitive tilt UL trough too long and it stays pretty far offshore at our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That band has been consistent all day, any decent totals in it? Is that south of wolf and north of all the Syracuse guys? Pretty much. Bring on Spring! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Potential for some meso lows tonight into tomorrow morning a few of the high res models pick it up. Anybodys guess on where they end up. 16" near Niagara Falls lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’ll be pretty surprised if GEFS doesn’t come west. I think one of our issues is lack of any heights to the east. Pretty flat along the EC. But it was improved for sure. Just kind of weird that it ended up the same. ?!? No substantive changes on the 18z gefs mean, it actually ticked SE of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: No substantive changes on the 18z gefs mean, it actually ticked SE of 12z. Some of them scrap Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: No substantive changes on the 18z gefs mean, it actually ticked SE of 12z. 18Z GFS would give pause to thoughts of chasing this as maybe the BOS-PVD & CC corridor gets smoked, other than SE VA. But, it's an 18Z run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: No substantive changes on the 18z gefs mean, it actually ticked SE of 12z. WTF?!?! Lol. I don’t know anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That band has been consistent all day, any decent totals in it? Is that south of wolf and north of all the Syracuse guys? Estimate 6-8" here in Hannibal today so far. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Looking at the 18z init, the main piece of energy for this storm is nearly onshore right now in AK and British Columbia, and looks to be completely onshore by 0z this evening. There a couple other smaller players still in the Pacific that dont come onshore in AK and the Pac NW until tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Probably grasping at straws, but I'll hold out some hope until the 12z and 0z runs tomorrow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Looks like the wind is shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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