vortmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: I am absolutely puzzled by the synoptic drought CNY has been in the past several years. Every system has a way of screwing us. Perhaps Albany can get several feet this weekend and then we'll be on the bottom of the 5 Upstate cities. lol For your sake I hope the coastal bomb comes west 200 miles. Then we can get some LE and you get the synoptic + LE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I know it’s a pipe dream and I am keeping it in context but this is still 100 hrs out. There are several pieces of energy involved. I don’t think you can COMPLETELY rule out a scenario where this comes west 100-200 miles. Certainly CNY is still in the realm of possibilities. Same as a complete OTS miss is possible. Like Matt said, CLE didn’t think they had a chance in hell….Thursday 12z would be when the models start being really accurate. But they do seem to be locked in with a Boston Special as of now. I’ll still be watching. Of course. Lol I grew up and spent 37 years in NJ. TRUST ME. It’s possible. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Anyone have a weenie Euro control run Kutchera clown? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I like this LE setup, the winds are shifting the band offshore and it's starting to consolidate again. Then in a couple hours the front comes through, enhances the band while pushing it south. May get another 3-6 out of it along the S Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: I like this LE setup, the winds are shifting the band offshore and it's starting to consolidate again. Then in a couple hours the front comes through, enhances the band while pushing it south. May get another 3-6 out of it along the S Shore. This morning was classic mid winter south shore fluff. Hope we get some more. One additional note for this weekend, there are some signs that we get a north flow that would support some fun regardless of how far away the storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Anyone have a weenie Euro control run Kutchera clown? 10 Sure. For sh*ts and giggles edit sorry that’s 10:1 but you get the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This morning was classic mid winter south shore fluff. Hope we get some more. One additional note for this weekend, there are some signs that we get a north flow that would support some fun regardless of how far away the storm is. I think this map could easily be underdone along the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, vortmax said: I think this map could easily be underdone along the lake. Already have that 2.9" here in Hannibal lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Leaving Cicero Thursday to ride out the storm on Long Island. Of course, if the low shifts west by 00z Thursday and looks to go across NYC I'll go to the catskills In the off chance Onondaga gets into the goods, which is not likely I'd stay here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Leaving Cicero Thursday to ride out the storm on Long Island. Of course, if the low shifts west by 00z Thursday and looks to go across NYC I'll go to the catskills In the off chance Onondaga gets into the goods, which is not likely I'd stay here Gotta go to the snowbelts if you want the big snows! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Gotta go to the snowbelts if you want the big snows! I would have liked to have been here the winter SYR got its 192 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Already have that 2.9" here in Hannibal lol. We got 4" of fluff here since last night. Probably 3" of that this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 25 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Sure. For sh*ts and giggles edit sorry that’s 10:1 but you get the idea Look, @Syrmaxit's our next 1 to 3 inch event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, sferic said: Leaving Cicero Thursday to ride out the storm on Long Island. Of course, if the low shifts west by 00z Thursday and looks to go across NYC I'll go to the catskills In the off chance Onondaga gets into the goods, which is not likely I'd stay here By Thursday, some off hour NAM run will probably crush all of CNY and ENY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Look, @Syrmaxit's our next 1 to 3 inch event! I envision KSYzzle having clear skies, light winds and temps simmering in the upper 30s, melting away our fake snow during this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Already have that 2.9" here in Hannibal lol. That starts at 7pm this evening.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I envision KSYzzle having clear skies, light winds and temps simmering in the upper 30s, melting away our fake snow during this event! They wish. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stash said: By Thursday, some off hour NAM run will probably crush all of CNY and ENY I wouldn’t be shocked at all. I actually think 18z is showing improvement. Doesn’t go out far enough yet. Tidbits is breaking due to all the weenies! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: That starts at 7pm this evening.. Didn't notice lol. It's dumping like crazy here right now. Complete whiteout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That starts at 7pm this evening.. It's almost as if it won't snow between now and 7! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Based on the radar this afternoon, Syracuse and just SOUTH of the Thruway has been doing better with snowfall than the North Syracuse zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Didn't notice lol. It's dumping like crazy here right now. Complete whiteout. I see what’s over you. You have a couple more waves behind this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I think I'll eek out another inch based on what is to my w and nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Based on the radar this afternoon, Syracuse and just SOUTH of the Thruway has been doing better with snowfall than the North Syracuse zone. I'm trying to figure out the best place to chase the storm to maximize snowfall and ready access to decent watering holes without spending too much if my CT friends are unavailable. Lots of options on the table...other than CNY... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Based on the radar this afternoon, Syracuse and just SOUTH of the Thruway has been doing better with snowfall than the North Syracuse zone. Most of the snow has moved north. What a crazy setup. I had about an hour this morning when conditions looked really good. Then the band fell apart and the good action moved south. Now there is a few heavier cells but nothing organized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: Most of the snow has moved north. What a crazy setup. I had about an hour this morning when conditions looked really good. Then the band fell apart and the good action moved south. Now there is a few heavier cells but nothing organized. The 'Cuse forcefield reigns on to live another day. We shall continue nickel and diming our way to half of average. I think the band will move north for a bit now and then come crashing back south as winds turn NW. We've had occasional light snow through the rest of the afternoon after that initial band that dumped. Probably 3 to 4 new inches (synoptic last night and lake effect today). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Long range NAM at 18z. Long way to go… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 As the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted late Friday night into Saturday, an upper level low will develop over the Mid Atlantic, which will eventually kick the deepening low northeast off the east coast and into New England. This in turn will support a strong nor`easter off the coast of the Carolina`s to track northeast along the East Coast throughout Saturday, and track east of Maine Saturday night. Model consensus continues to keep the track of the low, well to the east of the region and therefore expect only the western fringes of the low to drop some snow across the far eastern boarder of the region Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, expect the remainder of the forecast area to remain on the dry side with all but a small chance for some light lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday morning due to limited synoptic moisture and northwest flow. Then, conditions look to be mainly quiet through the second half of the weekend and into the first couple of days of the new work week as surface high pressure will span across the region. However, the upper level trough aloft will remain intact across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast which will not only keep the cold air in place but also provide for some chances for a few snow showers Sunday night as the trough axis passes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Long range NAM at 18z. Long way to go… Extrapolating that would be a hit for CNY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: As the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted late Friday night into Saturday, an upper level low will develop over the Mid Atlantic, which will eventually kick the deepening low northeast off the east coast and into New England. This in turn will support a strong nor`easter off the coast of the Carolina`s to track northeast along the East Coast throughout Saturday, and track east of Maine Saturday night. Model consensus continues to keep the track of the low, well to the east of the region and therefore expect only the western fringes of the low to drop some snow across the far eastern boarder of the region Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, expect the remainder of the forecast area to remain on the dry side with all but a small chance for some light lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday morning due to limited synoptic moisture and northwest flow. Then, conditions look to be mainly quiet through the second half of the weekend and into the first couple of days of the new work week as surface high pressure will span across the region. However, the upper level trough aloft will remain intact across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast which will not only keep the cold air in place but also provide for some chances for a few snow showers Sunday night as the trough axis passes overhead. I dunno. This seems rather “absolute” this far out but they are the pros! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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