Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[rochesterdave]

Check the rapid change/development of banana Heights over Canada. 

 

[rochesterdave]

Just now, DeltaT13 said:

Yeah I'm excited but also aware that I am in a high risk reward scenario here.  A jog too far west and all the snowboarding gear isnt even leaving the truck.  Hell if I knew for sure it would rain the whole time by Thursday morning I'd bail altogether and only be out 300 bucks total on the trip.  

It would have to move a lot west to be a rain-out. Anything is possible. I think it continues moving west but I doubt it skunks VT. I like the idea of something a little inland with a western trough. 
But yeah, if VT was looking at rain with snow in Roc- I’d bail too. Lol

[tim123]

3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Check the rapid change/development of banana Heights over Canada. 

 

Wouldn't that argue west and slower?

[BGM Blizzard]

12z EPS mean track shifted west vs 0/6z but not as much precip inland. Guessing some of the furthest west solutions got pulled east a bit.

 

[BGM Blizzard]

[vortmax]

I know this is a different setup than the Jan 16th storm, but the 500 setup looks similar. Some of the differences of this setup I see are:

1) The ridge axis seems about 200 miles east.

2) Northern energy phases earlier it seems.

3) Not as negatively tilted as early (yet).

4) H500 trough position is similar, but the surface forms significantly further east.

I could be off here, anyone want to chime in?

I have a good feeling about this one, though. 

[BGM Blizzard]

Can see that although the overall mean track shifted W, the clustering tightened up this run. Alot of very similar looking snowfall axis.

 

[Syrmax]

3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

12z EPS mean track shifted west vs 0/6z but not as much precip inland. Guessing some of the furthest west solutions got pulled east a bit.

 

This looks like it want to go over the BM or just inside it.  We'd be high and dry snyoptically. I think only the CMC looks good here.  Hopefully upper levels evolve to allow more west track.

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, vortmax said:

I know this is a different setup than the Jan 16th storm, but the 500 setup looks similar. Some of the differences of this setup I see are:

1) The ridge axis seems about 200 miles east.

2) Northern energy phases earlier it seems.

3) Not as negatively tilted as early (yet).

4) H500 trough position is similar, but the surface forms significantly further east.

I could be off here, anyone want to chime in?

Its similar but pretty different too. The high pressure is much further away then the last event. There is a limit to how far NW this gets unless the northern stream vort captures it quicker which would lead to quicker cyclogenesis and a further NW track. The longer it takes to "bomb" out the further east it goes. 

[rochesterdave]

7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Can see that although the overall mean track shifted W, the clustering tightened up this run. Alot of very similar looking snowfall axis.

 

Really locked in. But also waaaay west of where we were 24 hours ago

[vortmax]

33 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

This looks like it want to go over the BM or just inside it.  We'd be high and dry snyoptically. I think only the CMC looks good here.  Hopefully upper levels evolve to allow more west track.

Question is why it shifted west already (guessing something over the pacific?) and if there's room for more based on the upper levels.

[wolfie09]

Off Lake Ontario...

Expect a band of lake effect to develop Tuesday morning right behind
the departing clipper across southern Oswego County. The band may
also clip far northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties at times.
This band of snow may move north into central or northern Oswego
County briefly during the mid to late afternoon as boundary layer
flow backs more westerly just ahead of an arctic cold front. The
band of lake effect will then merge with the incoming arctic cold
front and possibly intensify as it moves back south across Oswego
County and portions of northern Cayuga/northeast Wayne counties. The
band may briefly become heavy at this point before moving farther
south and breaking apart into weak multiple bands overnight after
the arctic cold front pushes south of the lake.

As far as accumulations go, if a solid band comes together at the
southeast corner of the lake for a few hours Tuesday evening, there
may be 4-8" of fluffy accumulation in some areas. Previous runs of
the Canadian GEM were the only model that supported this idea, with
other high-res guidance veering flow too fast late Tuesday with the
arctic front to allow a single, dominant band to come together. If
this verifies, accumulations would be held under 3". Given the model
differences, the lake effect potential southwest of Lake Ontario
Tuesday and Tuesday night is a low confidence forecast at this point.

Off Lake Erie...

Weak WNW upslope snow showers will develop Tuesday morning and
continue through the day, with relatively minor accumulations
limited to higher terrain east of the lake. Moisture will deepen
some Tuesday night as the trough and arctic cold front cross the
lake, resulting in a little better thermodynamic environment over
Lake Erie. Model guidance also suggests the potential for a Lake
Huron connection to at least briefly tie into Lake Erie, first
across southern Erie County, then moving south and west across the
western Southern Tier overnight.

Overall the intensity of Lake Erie lake effect will be limited by a
short fetch and lack of deep moisture and synoptic support. The
potential for 4+" accumulations will be tied to whether the Lake
Huron connection develops, and if it is able to stay in one spot
long enough. If it does, there may be some local 4-7" accumulations
Tuesday night across the Chautauqua Ridge. This too is a low
confidence forecast given the sensitivity to the difficult to
predict upstream connection.

What is certain, it will turn much colder again Tuesday night as
arctic air moves back into the region. Lows will drop into the
single digits in most locations, and teens below zero for the North
Country by daybreak Wednesday. Wind chills may drop to colder than
-20F across the North Country.

[wolfie09]

Meanwhile, the next upper level trough will be crossing the Canadian
Prairies and northern Central Plains Wednesday night and Thursday
supporting a surface low and cold front to cross the Great Lakes.
The cold front will continue its eastward track across towards the
lower Great Lakes, reaching the region late Thursday night, where
the western portions of the forecast area will see the next round of
general snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front on the western doorstep early Friday morning will cross
the state from west to east throughout the day on Friday and support
a general widespread snow.

Meanwhile, the trough supporting the front will continue to dig and
deepen across the Ohio Valley and into the southern states, before
pivoting it axis across New York State and across New England
Saturday and Saturday night. As the trough digs deep, a surface low
will develop off coast of the Carolinas, where it will track
northward along the Eastern Seaboard towards New England by
Saturday. As of 12Z model guidances, the nor`easter remains to track
far enough east keep the majority of the snow out of the forecast
area, however a shift westward can change this.

For the later half of the weekend and start of the new work week,
upper level troughing will remain across the east coast and allow a
shortwave to pass through. With the passage of the shortwave,
surface low and its associated fronts will slide southeast across
the Great Lakes Sunday, reaching the region Monday supporting the
next chances for snow showers.

[Syrmax]

20 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Question is why it shifted west already (guessing something over the pacific?) and if there's room for more based on the upper levels.

Well, the AO is + and there's not a lot not blocking shown in the right spot so I'd think there's room for this to track furher west if the upstream energies sync up well.  I could see this staying well offshore also. We should have a clearer picture (?) over the next 00Z and 12z runs.

[vortmax]

As of 12Z model guidances, the nor`easter remains to track
far enough east keep the majority of the snow out of the forecast
area, however a shift westward can change this.

 

So you're saying there's a chance? 

[Buffalo Bumble]

Snow picked up nicely here in the last half hour. Pretty steady and accumulating quickly. 

[TugHillMatt]

15 minutes ago, vortmax said:

As of 12Z model guidances, the nor`easter remains to track
far enough east keep the majority of the snow out of the forecast
area, however a shift westward can change this.

 

So you're saying there's a chance? 

Only for Buffalo.

[TugHillMatt]

HRRR (regardless of its accuracy) gives the North Syracuse  zone some love. BUF seemed hesitant, probably since the Rgem didn't come through at 12Z.

[tim123]

Cool to see enhanced precip on a ssw wind near toronto.

[BuffaloWeather]

Dumping here, already over an inch. Probably about 1" per rates. Looks to continue for awhile too, maybe another over performer? 

[tim123]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Dumping here, already over an inch. Probably about 1" per rates. Looks to continue for awhile too, maybe another over performer? 

Hope so. These clippers can't all be crap

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Hope so. These clippers can't all be crap

lol...I agree! Please, can we have one that doesn't underperform?

[tim123]

Sws issued for quarter mile visibility at times

[wolfie09]

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

HRRR (regardless of its accuracy) gives the North Syracuse  zone some love. BUF seemed hesitant, probably since the Rgem didn't come through at 12Z.

It did on this site..

Looks a little north of the Hrrr as it has the heaviest near S/C Oswego county..

[tim123]

This set up has upside potential for entire South shore with artic front tomorrow eve.

[Thinksnow18]

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Dumping here, already over an inch. Probably about 1" per rates. Looks to continue for awhile too, maybe another over performer? 

It’s heavy snow in Williamsville with very tiny dendrites. If they were a bit healthier this would definitely over perform 

[Syrmax]

15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

HRRR (regardless of its accuracy) gives the North Syracuse  zone some love. BUF seemed hesitant, probably since the Rgem didn't come through at 12Z.

That would be sweet. I'm pulling for a couple of middling snow events in the next week so that we reach average for the month and I can refute your claims of a junky winter with #TheScience.

[wolfie09]

Wpc this morning did place a low chance for 4"+ in and around buffalo..They also had a small area of moderate tomorrow, looks like Hannibal/Fulton area..

 

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Wpc this morning did place a low chance for 4"+ in and around buffalo..They also had a small area of moderate tomorrow, looks like Hannibal/Fulton area..

 

Uh oh. There we go again. All those people out on the lakes better get their snowblowers ready...

[TugHillMatt]

9 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

That would be sweet. I'm pulling for a couple of middling snow events in the next week so that we reach average for the month and I can refute your claims of a junky winter with #TheScience.

Welp, BGM goes with the minimum snowfall for tonight and minimum LES for tomorrow night. Yawn.