BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: The more I’m out here the more I realize how good these meso models are. We never use some of these back east lol. I checked the models last night before bed and not one had 6-10" overnight across the southtowns. RGEM was the closest with a max of like 8". Here is the 0Z run, was pretty dam close to what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Time to enjoy my"transition" band, hopefully it takes it's time lol Looks beautiful on the webcam! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 Lol the NAM did catch on at the last minute, it had nothing for me the last few runs 1-2" max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I checked the models last night before bed and not one had 6-10" overnight across the southtowns. RGEM was the closest with a max of like 8". Here is the 0Z run, was pretty dam close to what happened. Yeah, I noticed last night while looking at radar that the Ontario band settled farther south than the models projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Watching the Webcam from here. Beautiful. So when are you ditching that cesspool and moving upstate? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Worth always has tons of snow. I still say it's the Jackpot zone for lake effect. I wish I could get a little place there. Yea they got nailed. Meanwhile downsloping just pretty much killed it here. There has to be some sort of recipe to get that band over the tughill. Must need more of a lake enhancement to offset the downsloped dryness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I'm so jealous of everyone in this subforum. While I'm sitting at 7.7 inches for the winter , there are several ways for the lakes to get snow but it's so hard for NYC and alot of the northeast to get snow. You need to move from NYC if you like snow. Either that or snow chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Yea they got nailed. Meanwhile downsloping just pretty much killed it here. There has to be some sort of recipe to get that band over the tughill. Must need more of a lake enhancement to offset the downsloped dryness I think you need some stronger winds to give it that lift/push over and beyond. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: So when are you ditching that cesspool and moving upstate? Says the one from Binghamton.... J/k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, I noticed last night while looking at radar that the Ontario band settled farther south than the models projected. As Tombo noted earlier, the Euro actually nailed the Ontario band a bit better than the RGEM, at a day or so leads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Says the one from Binghamton.... J/k Ha...hell no, I'm a safe 15 miles nw of the city but not quite to toofless land. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: The Euro actually nailed the Ontario band a bit better than the RGEM, at a day or so leads. Yeah, except I don't think Lady Yerdon jackpotted...yet.... hopefully.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I think you need some stronger winds to give it that lift/push over and beyond. that makes sense. That would screw wolfie though right since it would push band further inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, except I don't think Lady Yerdon jackpotted...yet.... hopefully.... Yeah...I probably picked a run too early for the Euro to demonstrate the differences....but going back several model runs, RGEM consistently had max totals about 10-12 mi. north of apparent verification, while Euro was more or less closer to verification. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: As Tombo noted earlier, the Euro actually nailed the Ontario band a bit better than the RGEM, at a day or so leads. yup, got the further south right and the middle finger dry zone over me well situated too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: that makes sense. That would screw wolfie though right since it would push band further inland? Possibly but we don't really need the exact same wind direction so it wouldn't matter to me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: yup, got the further south right and the middle finger dry zone over me well situated too You guys need some pretty specific conditions to cash in...drove 177 many times...going into town passed the wind farm, snowfall rates just dry up....everytime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: You guys need some pretty specific conditions to cash in...drove 177 many times...going into town passed the wind farm, snowfall rates just dry up....everytime. yup, its a beautiful downslope dandy. I live closer to the adirondack then the tughill so its a double insertion. I'll have to see what is needed to get lowville to cash in. Not sure this year will be a good learning point since lake effect has been pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Possibly but we don't really need the exact same wind direction so it wouldn't matter to me lol well then screw away then 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 A hair over 2" so far, flakes are incredible right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: A hair over 2" so far, flakes are incredible right now. Rates 2"/hr....???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2/hr here as well, like 2 flakes/hr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I think every area, outside of living on the tughill specifically has their niches. Here in lowville, it's obviously the downslope, but the synoptic snow is good and I'm protected against the warmth of the lake due to the tughill. So the retention up here is solid. Like cuse and wolfie get lake effect much better, they are also more prone to torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Rates 2"/hr....???? Yeah right around there. I think it started around 8:30 and I took an "unofficial" deck measurement at 9:25.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Rates 2"/hr....???? You think it will survive to give us a couple inches? Has that look like it will quickly fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Sure would be nice if we could get that clipper tomorrow night to NOT dry up. What a synoptic wasteland of a winter. Almost 3/4ths of my 40 inches is from lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: well then screw away then Haha..It's been screwing away all year..I haven't seen a band sit still more than a couple hours so far this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Sure would be nice if we could get that clipper tomorrow night to NOT dry up. What a synoptic wasteland of a winter. Almost 3/4ths of my 40 inches is from lake effect. 3/4ths of my snow is from synoptic here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Yeah the main part of the band is weakening ..We should still have a couple hours of moderate snow to go..NWS has 1"-2" with an isolated 3"(Cayuga) as it heads south.. Much of the south shore of Lake Ontario (including Rochester) will see 1- 2" as the band moves south and onshore. There may be some localized 3" amounts in northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties before the band weakens and breaks up as it move onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 This system will bring moisture back into the area Monday afternoon into Monday night, bringing a widespread general snowfall to the region. Some lake enhancement is likely east of the lakes, but in general a 2-4 inches snowfall is expected for most areas with slightly lesser amounts across the Finger Lakes, with higher amounts east of the lakes could locally approach 6 inches. Widespread snowfall then tapers to northwest flow lake convective snow showers later Monday night and continues through Tuesday before high pressure builds in by Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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