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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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2 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

For E and SE of L. Ontario, it looks like Sunday's LES event will be a relatively short/transient event (a few hours?), south of ART.  

That said, rates will be stout, based on 3k and RGEM depictions ATT.

Thick DGZ and Omega intersect almost perfectly. (see below) Ratios should be well north of 20:1 with rates, at times, approaching 4"/hr. when near ART.

As the band settles southward through Oswego county Sunday, rates should subside some and then lower substantially as it moves south of the Oswego/Onondaga Co. border.

I see Watertown area (+/- 7mi. North or south) getting 10-14+"...5-10" in Oswego Co. and 2-5" south of there.

image.thumb.png.8814f1585e71e68b20f67d59e48144e8.png

The models show barely anything south of Oswego to Parish, so I hope you are right on us getting even a few inches.

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With this upcoming week looking WAY less exciting than it was just a few days ago, it's safe to say Syracuse will finish it's 3rd straight month with well below normal snowfall. It's also the 3rd consecutive crap January. Snowfall averages are going to take a hit if this continues for several more years.

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1 hour ago, Flying MXZ said:

Nice morning walk with the dog!  The eagle that flew over didn’t seem to mind the cold. 

C1016B4D-F7A2-454D-BFBB-25A467E529AD.jpeg

-15F here. I was just out for 20 minutes

It doesn't register as cold on my skin so much as it does direct pain.

I love winter but below zero, no thanks.

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Love the below zero stuff. Did about a half hour outside this morning. 

There’s been a lot written the last few years about the benefits of intermittently expossure to cold. Especially if you’re big into fitness. My favorite cardio is splitting wood which is great on days like today. 

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22 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

 

6C0790FC-33E1-42E5-BB52-BED989C9BF59.gif

Also don't care about snow on the ground. Just give me 3-4" rates all day. :lol:

I'll never understand how really cold temps are even enjoyable. I almost got frostbite a few times on some of my long winter hikes. It's not fun. Skiing in really cold temps going up the lift sucks, hiking in it sucks, what is it good for? I guess frozen ponds for pond hockey would be one thing.

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9 minutes ago, Leelee said:

I'm not seeing anything in models and wind maps that suggest any of these storms at least the next week or so preventing waves going anywhere but east and out to sea. But this has been an unusual winter. 

There is some blocking, but too far east. Favors NE or just a too progressive flow.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_23.png

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35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Where you going? Thinking about going out west in March/April

Stowe and Sugarbush. First weekend of February. The long range definitely gives me pause but we’re locked in. We chose N VT because we had a disastrous trip to Killington a few years ago (weather wise). 
I also have a trip planned to Holiday Valley for a music festival March 19-20. It’s a Grateful Dead cover band called Darkstar Orchestra. Skiing, music and drugs? Yes please! 
Where out west do you want to go? 

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