Syrmax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: Just got back from my trip up there. The entire area did pretty well on and off the hill headed towards Brantingham and Stillwater. I was at Cedar Pines (I can never get a beer there they are always jammed and they seem to avoid people standing up.) and the trails out there were not as impressive as 12-18+ inches should've been. But they definitely got the snow. We stayed at the Edge in Lyons Falls and waking up yesterday they were dry-slotted for a few hours but after that it was snowing most of the day moderately (we were in Stillwater area mostly but even at 5pm when we had dinner at the Pine Tree it was coming down). If I had to guess they got 7-8 inches on and off the hill headed east towards OF. I don't know how OF itself made out, nonetheless they really needed something and could use a lot more. I golfed last night (indoors) with a big trail rider and he had the same assessment for conditions...they need a better base in general, it's still thin in areas as the LES to-date has been compacting and not as widespread deep as one might imagine from the recent LES event up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I am at 35.6" for Season as of this a.m. 18.4" in January so far. There was only one legit single snowfall in Nov/Dec, ~5" LES, the rest was nickles and dimes. KSYZZLE has 30.0" as of this a.m.'s Daily Climo report with 16.3" in January to date. Just looked at the reports that you referenced. Those totals, I'm assuming, are from the 24 hours starting at 7 am yesterday. So that doesn't include what fell Sunday night. So 7 to 8 inches for your locale seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 44 minutes ago, vortmax said: And we are all drooling over BUFs snowfall this year as if it's unattainable - yet only slightly above average. The bar is lowwww. Looking at the Ontario webcam, it looks like you guys only have 4ish inches on the ground?! Is that true? You must have gotten sleeted on and missed the best stuff that Rochester got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Yeah BGM was up to 28.1 counting 1/17. With the few inches of LE last night and this morning, they'll probably be up to like 31-32 once 1/18 is posted tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Consecutive SE shifts on 0z and 6z eps mean for this weekend. Doesn't look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Tully somehow did waaaaaay better than the rest of Onondaga county. High elevation ftw again. gotsnowcams.com - New York - paul@[email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah BGM was up to 28.1 counting 1/17. With the few inches of LE last night and this morning, they'll probably be up to like 31-32 once 1/18 is posted tomorrow. Not sure how much fell after midnight at KSYZZLE. Don't think it was much as I didn't get anything of note and radar looked bleak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Not sure how much fell after midnight at KSYZZLE. Don't think it was much as I didn't get anything of note and radar looked bleak. As noted above, I am guessing the lake effect did the typical NW flow thing and hit the Finger Lakes into SW Onondaga county... check out the Tully cam. We...were left dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Consecutive SE shifts on 0z and 6z eps mean for this weekend. Doesn't look good. I think there has been a good deal of data to suggest the new GFS is superior to the ECMWF. The GFS has lead the way so far this winter sniffing out the track and the consistency within 4-5 days lead time. It may not be the best just before the event but I’ve noticed the other models playing catch-up to the GFS…might change but I’m not expecting it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think there has been a good deal of Dara to suggest the new GFS is superior to the ECMWF. The GFS has lead the way so far this winter sniffing out the track and the consistency within 4-5 days lead time. It may not be the best just before billing I’ve noticed the other models playing catch-up to the GFS…might change but I’m not expecting it. Right on. GFS for tracks and Rgem for Lake effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think there has been a good deal of Dara to suggest the new GFS is superior to the ECMWF. The GFS has lead the way so far this winter sniffing out the track and the consistency within 4-5 days lead time. It may not be the best just before billing I’ve noticed the other models playing catch-up to the GFS…might change but I’m not expecting it. That's my perception also. Euro hasn't distinguished itself this season thusfar. Op GooFuS also beat the ensembles like the Bills v Patriots game with this last system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Syrmax said: Strongly Agree. Living in SE CT from 1984 to 2000 it was hard to buy a snowstorm without "issues". And the # of times the coastal front showed up to rocket us into the 40's or low 50s while 30 miles inland got pounded with snow were too many to mention. 1995/96 was the only really good winter in that stretch. Hell i had 5" of gruel & dryslot for the Storm O' Century in 1993 while west of the CT River got 18"+. Of course, since i left they get a Blizzard annually it seems. A few years ago who could forget Boston's snow piles lasting into summer 1993 March Blizzard 10 inches on LI then a solid freeze afterwards Agree with 1995-1996 NYC recorded I think their snowiest winter with around 75" 2010's on LI in some years were not too bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Gahhh, virtually nothing to track, even out past 240 hours. I feel so empty inside.... These post storm blues are real. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Couple decent LES chances on GEM. Later this weekend and then next week. With this cold air coming a lot of events will come out of no where, just takes a little lift to get the lakes going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Another SE shift on EPS for this weekend. Looking like a goner for Upstate region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 CMC Ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Place to be is in southeast this winter 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: Gahhh, virtually nothing to track, even out past 240 hours. I feel so empty inside.... These post storm blues are real. I hear ya. Still a good pattern. Hope something pops up again. It is weird after a big one. I’m fully consumed for days and then nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 For example, we have 3-4 waves rounding the base of the EC dip. Any one of them could catch. I don’t think we are done for a long way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Going to be chilly. No way we go cold and dry for 2 weeks straight in January with warm lakes. I like the pattern for those SE of Ontario vs NE of Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 I guess these are areas of interest.. Wednesday, the surface low associated with the warm frontal passage tonight will track to the north of the region. In its journey, an associated cold front will be dragged across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the incoming cold front, southwest winds will pick up across the region with up to 35mph gusts possible. Additionally, the southwest winds will further aid warmer air to advect into the region, supporting temperatures into the upper 30s to near 40. Then, Wednesday afternoon the front will cross from east to west where the lake plains will see a mix of rain and snow showers and some wet snow showers elsewhere. However, east of Lake Ontario should stay mostly snow with a couple of inches of snow will be possible. Winds will shift to the northwest as a cold front pushes southward across the area Wednesday night. 850mb temps drop from about -12c Wednesday evening to -16c daybreak Thursday. Modest lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario should enhance a bit with a band dropping south of the lake late Wednesday night. Expect this to drop 1-3 inches southeast of Lake Ontario from Wayne to Oswego counties. Shorter fetch from the northwest flow could drop 1-2 inches east of Lake Erie. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures and a chance of snow showers. An elongated trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will approach Saturday night. This will bring a chance of general snow showers Sunday, with lake effect snow showers east/southeast of the lakes late Sunday through Monday. For most locations, any snow accumulation will be light (less than 2 inches) however with 850mb temperatures around -19c any lake snow would likely have snow/water equivalent ratios in excess of 20:1. A clipper low will move across the eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Improving model agreement on this and although QPFS are light, suspect there`s a good chance of measurable precipitation even if it will be on the light side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Kbuf snow map and rgem.. Not sure I agree with this yet lol With winds starting out of the west and quickly veering NW, east of the lake may not have time to catch any potential band as it may start getting better organized just to the south.. Unfortunately seems like this has happened a few times this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This would break him 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 This would break himThat's nuts, imagine another low tracking like the last one.. Like that never happens.Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 44 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: That's nuts, imagine another low tracking like the last one.. Like that never happens. Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Even more unbelievable would be a land based LP at 959 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Even more unbelievable would be a land based LP at 959I believe 93' was 960, would that be record breaking? Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, CoolMikeWx said: I believe 93' was 960, would that be record breaking? Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk Jan 1978 blizzard was 951 mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: I guess these are areas of interest.. Then, Wednesday afternoon the front will cross from east to west where the lake plains will see a mix of rain and snow showers and some wet snow showers elsewhere. However, east of Lake Ontario should stay mostly snow with a couple of inches of snow will be possible. This was the "area of interest" I noticed.... Even the NWS can get their directions confused once in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: This would break him Indeed, it would. Indeed. LOL I love how we all know who "him" is. The title of this whole thread holds true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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