Stash Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This track would just smash all of W and Central NY. This has potential to be a forum wide 1-2’ deal. With tracks like we are seeing, Buf-SYR would see locally 2 feet plus. It’ll change but right now it looks like a blockbuster. It's very tough to get a forum wide storm, as our forum runs from Buffalo east to the New England border, and up to Quebec. But even here in ENY, that would be a decent front end amount followed by dryslot/changeover depending on the ultimate track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: Don't remember this being a huge storm? Its because both storms busted within 1-2 days out. We had all models showing huge totals for 2 straight events and both busted. I want to say they went 100 miles further NW than modeled at last second? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Last Christmas looked good for a while until the west trend started lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Oh yeah I remember. What a shit show that all was. Farecast was for a foot or more ended up with 3 inches of slop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m grateful for your youthful mind. I only remember the huge ones at this point. I’m not old (49) but I consume heroic amounts of THC. Heres another one from last year. I want to say 3 straight storms busted last February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Some more GEFS maps... 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 100% We need this to be on the east side for however briefly. It won’t cut back across. Danger is if it starts up on the west side. Then we are screwed. I’m pretty certain this is setting up to be a classic Miller B storm. Primary goes into western PA and gives way to a much stronger east coast/inland runner that sends copious amounts for most of Upstate. Why this will work as opposed to the damn good tracks in Nov and Dec is now we actually have a large pool of arctic air just to our north. I’m pretty confident (I know I’m setting myself up for the Dave repost) that this is what the models will hone in on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, Stash said: It's very tough to get a forum wide storm, as our forum runs from Buffalo east to the New England border, and up to Quebec. But even here in ENY, that would be a decent front end amount followed by dryslot/changeover depending on the ultimate track. Yeah, I forget about you eastern and far north weenies. I meant Erie to Binghamton and north to the Tug. But I do think you ENY folks would get into a solid thump followed by dryslot if the GFS was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m pretty certain this is setting up to be a classic Miller B storm. Primary goes into western PA and gives way to a much stronger east coast/inland runner that sends copious amounts for most of Upstate. Why this will work as opposed to the damn good tracks in Nov and Dec is now we actually have a large pool of arctic air just to our north. I’m pretty confident (I know I’m setting myself up for the Dave repost) that this is what the models will hone in on Stamped and filed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’m pretty certain this is setting up to be a classic Miller B storm. Primary goes into western PA and gives way to a much stronger east coast/inland runner that sends copious amounts for most of Upstate. Why this will work as opposed to the damn good tracks in Nov and Dec is now we actually have a large pool of arctic air just to our north. I’m pretty confident (I know I’m setting myself up for the Dave repost) that this is what the models will hone in on This storm is far closer to a Miller A than a miller B. There is a bit of a coastal transfer, but I would still call this a Hybrid Miller A before calling a it miller B. Miller B's happen when a storm dropping through the lake or Mid atlantic fires up a low pressure off Hatteras. This storm has a well defined low pressure system dropping into the Deep south and making the turn up the coast, thats Miller A. Miller A's are usually the big ones IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Honestly Wolf, when was the last time you remember seeing blockbuster signals like this? Last weekend at Daisy Dukes... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, DeltaT13 said: This storm is far closer to a Miller A than a miller B. There is a bit of a coastal transfer, but I would still call this a Hybrid Miller A before calling a it miller B. Miller B's happen when a storm dropping through the lake or Mid atlantic fires up a low pressure off Hatteras. This storm has a well define low pressure system dropping into the Deep south and making the turn up the coast, thats Miller A. Miller A's are usually the big ones IMO. Way more A IMO coming from the deep south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is a miller A. There isn't really a transfer and no clear path to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m grateful for your youthful mind. I only remember the huge ones at this point. I’m not old (49) but I consume heroic amounts of THC. Just looked this storm up in my weather journal, LOLz. Here is what I wrote: 2/15-2/16/21 Miller A Bust - A very large and fast moving Miller A came up the coast. This storm was tracked for many days and looked like a solid hit for all of Upstate NY. In the final 6-12 hours before the storm moved in the models all started trending much further NW. As the storm hit, mid level warming changed over almost all of WNY to sleet and and a wintry mix. Snowfall totals ended up being about 3-5 inches of super dense sleet/snow. A far cry from the 12-18 that many expected. The local Met's were roasted once again. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Weenies on another board are so desperate they are using the navy lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I remember. Brutal. Hope this crap don't start again. Much diffrent set up i think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Don't sleep on our ne flow lake snow fri into sat. Could see several inches north of thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Night night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system. Several days ago there were a few operational runs which showed a potential synoptic system this weekend, but subsequent runs trended south and much weaker. The past few runs have now latched back onto this system, which now is forecast to take a more circuitous route through the southeast states and then up the east coast, arriving somewhere in the northeast quadrant of the nation Sunday night and Monday. The 00Z GFS and Global GEM continue to suggest a system tracking far enough inland to have significant impacts in our region, while the ECMWF is farther east and closer to a more climatological track for a Nor`Easter. The 00Z GEFS show a good amount of spread in possible solutions, to be expected at this time range. A majority cluster of the GEFS suggest a track farther east than the 00Z GFS/GEM. The system that will result in this potential Nor`Easter is still in the middle of the data sparse Pacific, so any individual model run should be taken with a grain of salt at this time range. Given the uncertainty, increased POPS a little for late Sunday night and Monday, but still in the chance range. Some limited lake effect will then develop Monday night and Tuesday east/southeast of the lakes in the wake of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Rgem prestorm ne flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Our attention then turns to a potential significant synoptic system. Several days ago there were a few operational runs which showed a potential synoptic system this weekend, but subsequent runs trended south and much weaker. The past few runs have now latched back onto this system, which now is forecast to take a more circuitous route through the southeast states and then up the east coast, arriving somewhere in the northeast quadrant of the nation Sunday night and Monday. The 00Z GFS and Global GEM continue to suggest a system tracking far enough inland to have significant impacts in our region, while the ECMWF is farther east and closer to a more climatological track for a Nor`Easter. The 00Z GEFS show a good amount of spread in possible solutions, to be expected at this time range. A majority cluster of the GEFS suggest a track farther east than the 00Z GFS/GEM. The system that will result in this potential Nor`Easter is still in the middle of the data sparse Pacific, so any individual model run should be taken with a grain of salt at this time range. Given the uncertainty, increased POPS a little for late Sunday night and Monday, but still in the chance range. Some limited lake effect will then develop Monday night and Tuesday east/southeast of the lakes in the wake of this system. Wet blanket 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This was from early am before 06z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Anyone have the Canadian? Not loading on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Its loading now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: Binghamton to Utica to Montreal. At this rate itll become a cutoff low over hudson bay with some nice sw flow after our 2' of synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Trudeau's finest is amped theu 96. Eh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Nam at 84 Should be in range tomorrow, at least for the MA region.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Its loading now It’s super amped on the hard to read black and whites. Like west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: It’s super amped on the hard to read black and whites. Like west of Philly. It's no good out this way, WNY may be ok. Still not that far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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