Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

[tombo82685]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yep, cold and dry the worst winter pattern. Lots would have to change in order to get anything good here. Very rarely do you see cold and dry without the lakes firing up. This weekends arctic outbreak we see below zero temps with zero precipitation, talk about boring.

Yea I mean, I wouldn’t write it off being that we are 5/6 days away. But for us to get into action that phase needs to happen or it’s south 

[PerintonMan]

2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’d give my remaining nut

[Syrmax]

32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, the trough cutting from sw to northeast correlates to a huge positive tilted trough in east which argues for south and offshore. The northern stream energy is the wild card phase that would yank this north. The whole setup screams cutoff low that scoots under massive HP to the north 

The last 2 or 3 series of NWP runs have shown a neg tilt trough, depends how soon and how much phasing occurs. If the Trailing s/w energy doesn't dig enough or is too slow, the lead s/w will miss phasing and ride out to sea as a weaker system, as shown previously.  The setup is pretty good overall. Not seeing any problem with that.  

[Syrmax]

One thing I'm interested in observing is whether the major operational and ensemble models move together over the next few days and converge (as they roughly have now) or will we get a significant divergence develop. A divergence would really throw a spanner in the works for a major storm even occurring, much less where...  At D5/6 ensembles will always be a mess.  Permutations over that long a period result in a lot of noise.  The fact that the major ens means are roughly aligned now is interesting.  They've all ingested similar data and used their various algos to crank out similar solutions and responded to whatever changed in a similar manner. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Nam through 84 is super amped but it always is

[tim123]

I like the ne flow lake effect off ontario

[Syrmax]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Nam through 84 is super amped but it always is

NAM has a closed H500 feature as the system enters the US in NE Montana. It will come up with some crazed solution if it keeps that in next 2 days.

[Syrmax]

Speaking of NAM, look at this sounding for KSYR 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday eve). 0F... Cold and mofo'ing dry... Brrrr

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

The last 2 or 3 series of NWP runs have shown a neg tilt trough, depends how soon and how much phasing occurs. If the Trailing s/w energy doesn't dig enough or is too slow, the lead s/w will miss phasing and ride out to sea as a weaker system, as shown previously.  The setup is pretty good overall. Not seeing any problem with that.  

I never said it wasn't a good setup, but the energy diving down is what causes the negative tilt and slings this north imo. If that energy diving down doesn't interact this scoots under as it would just be a big bowling ball low caught underneath the ridge to the north. For example look at 18z eps, the phase is missed and this goes well south of here. That phase is the deal breaker 

[vortmax]

5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I never said it wasn't a good setup, but the energy diving down is what causes the negative tilt and slings this north imo. If that energy diving down doesn't interact this scoots under as it would just be a big bowling ball low caught underneath the ridge to the north. For example look at 18z eps, the phase is missed and this goes well south of here. That phase is the deal breaker 

Or the deal maker! Lol

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yes I know it is, but the energy diving down is what causes the negative tilt and slings this north imo. If that energy diving down doesn't interact this scoots under as it would just be a big bowling ball low caught underneath the ridge to the north 

Agree.  That's the scenario that's "safest" for the Mid Atlantic people IMO.  Or something like the Megalopolitan Storm of 1983, which wasn't so much a bowling ball as just a far enough offshore solution to bone everybody not on the I-95 corridor (I was in BGM at the time and still remember the pain of that sh*tshow).  I figured out we were screwed just by observing sky conditions that day, and listening to a scratchy WCBS 880 radio signal reporting the heavy snow down there.  We had a WSW for 1-2 feet of snow as late as the evening prior...it didn't scar me though.

 

[sferic]

6 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Speaking of NAM, look at this sounding for KSYR 00Z Saturday (7pm Friday eve). 0F... Cold and mofo'ing dry... Brrrr

I need to read a tutorial as to how to interpret soundings, shame on me

[rochesterdave]

NAM is almost identical to 18z GFS at 84. Who knows. Lol. Obsessing already

[tombo82685]

12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I never said it wasn't a good setup, but the energy diving down is what causes the negative tilt and slings this north imo. If that energy diving down doesn't interact this scoots under as it would just be a big bowling ball low caught underneath the ridge to the north. For example look at 18z eps, the phase is missed and this goes well south of here. That phase is the deal breaker 

This is what I mean, now the 0z icon went toward more phase of that energy so the storm came closer. This is the 18z icon. If the northern stream energy doesn't phase this is what you are left with. You have a ridge going sw to northeast, which causes the trough to remain positive tilted and this scoots under us 

 

[Syrmax]

15 minutes ago, sferic said:

I need to read a tutorial as to how to interpret soundings, shame on me

Here's a site that's a wealth of info. 

Skew-T Basics

WX Prediction - Haby Hints

I've been thru a lot of Haby's site years ago and took a couple of met courses at WCSU many moons ago, back in the Dr. Mel era in early 1990s.  He was a fab person..  Was interesting to study as a hobbyist after finishing an MSEE and being a nuclear power plant  operator. The science and math behind meteorology was largely old hat by then.

If you have basic science knowledge you can get to know enough about soundings to be dangerous. 

[tombo82685]

6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This is what I mean, now the 0z icon went toward more phase of that energy so the storm came closer. This is the 18z icon. If the northern stream energy doesn't phase this is what you are left with. You have a ridge going sw to northeast, which causes the trough to remain positive tilted and this scoots under us 

 

 

There is also another way to get this done possibly too. There is a piece of the tpv that swings throuhg friday that brings another shot of arctic air in. That tpv is what is acting as a block in itself as it flattens out the hgt lines along the east coast and well obviously a storm won't run into that. If that moves out faster and allows for good return flow along the coast then with how strong the ULL energy is modeled that def could gain serious latitude too 

[Syrmax]

11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This is what I mean, now the 0z icon went toward more phase of that energy so the storm came closer. This is the 18z icon. If the northern stream energy doesn't phase this is what you are left with. You have a ridge going sw to northeast, which causes the trough to remain positive tilted and this scoots under us 

 

Absolutely agree. The upstream energy has to dive sharply SE and with right timing to merge/caoture/restrain the lead slp.

[BuffaloWeather]

13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This is what I mean, now the 0z icon went toward more phase of that energy so the storm came closer. This is the 18z icon. If the northern stream energy doesn't phase this is what you are left with. You have a ridge going sw to northeast, which causes the trough to remain positive tilted and this scoots under us 

 

Tombo just used the icon

[tombo82685]

19 minutes ago, sferic said:

I need to read a tutorial as to how to interpret soundings, shame on me

Here is an easy break down. The numbers on the bottom are your temperatures at the surface then as you go vertical it's going vertical in atmosphere. So I highlighted three lines. Middle line is the freezing mark from the surface then upward throughout the atmosphere. Line to the left is -10c line to the right is +10c. Red line is your temperature throughout the whole profile, green is dew point. 

[tombo82685]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tombo just used the icon

 

I did that for @TugHillMatt

[BGM Blizzard]

Yeah Icon way W of the 12z run. Big hit from here to Alb verbatim. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, tombo82685 said:

I did that for @TugHillMatt

and @rochesterdave

[Syrmax]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Tombo just used the icon

It does make me want to throw up my mouf a little bit.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Here is an easy break down. The numbers on the bottom are your temperatures at the surface then as you go vertical it's going vertical in atmosphere. So I highlighted three lines. Middle line is the freezing mark from the surface then upward throughout the atmosphere. Line to the left is -10c line to the right is +10c. Red line is your temperature throughout the whole profile, green is dew point. 

What does the disparity between temperature and dew point have to be for wet bulb effect? Is there a min/max? Does it matter where it occurs in atmosphere, obviously has to be within the cloud or underneath.

[tombo82685]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What does the disparity between temperature and dew point have to be for wet bulb effect? Is there a min/max? Does it matter where it occurs in atmosphere, obviously has to be within the cloud or underneath.

what do you mean?

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, tombo82685 said:

what do you mean?

evaporational cooling leading to snow vs rain in intense precipitation events.

[BuffaloWeather]

I know how it happens I've just always wondered what the sounding thresholds are.

Here is a good study on it

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2017-03-22

[tombo82685]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I know how it happens I've just always wondered what the sounding thresholds are.

Here is a good study on it

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2017-03-22

You see the thin blue line just to the left of the red line, that is your wet bulb temp I believe when the column gets saturated 

[Syrmax]

16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Here is an easy break down. The numbers on the bottom are your temperatures at the surface then as you go vertical it's going vertical in atmosphere. So I highlighted three lines. Middle line is the freezing mark from the surface then upward throughout the atmosphere. Line to the left is -10c line to the right is +10c. Red line is your temperature throughout the whole profile, green is dew point. 

FYI, that yellow section of the temp (red) line is the Snow Growth Zone, or DGZ - Dendrite Growth Zone. You want to see the temp and dewpoint lines about merged as you go up in altitude (near saturation) AND have the upward vertical velocity (UVV), air motion, which is shown by the horizontal bars on the LH vertical Axis, aligned with the DGZ. This sounding is sh*t for any precip as the column is dry in an arctic airmass and what little UVV there is, isn't well aligned with the DGZ. So...upshot...effin cold and low humidity. 

Edit: this is more for @sferic

[tombo82685]

Will be interesting to see how this plays out on gfs. TPV north of maine is stronger, with crushing hgts, but ULL in southern plains is slower and the northern stream piece of energy is slower. So it all could just negate each other.