wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Central square reported 9" but that's"public"..Spotter reported 7" 4 mile north.. If you want to see the difference a short distance can make, look at tuggies neck of the woods lol Co-op reported 5" and storm spotter nearly a foot..(1M north).. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Central square reported 9" but that's"public"..Spotter reported 7" 4 mile north.. If you want to see the difference a short distance can make, look at tuggies neck of the woods lol Co-op reported 5" and storm spotter nearly a foot..(1M north).. Yup. Although there are two spotters here who are notoriously low. I am always like, "Where are they measuring?!" Bville is big area. I am guessing the lower totals were measured on the SW side towards Van Buren, Warners, and Village Green. My estimate is that most of the Bville area got 8 to 10 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just keeps getting better for Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 This is the time frame I’ve got my eyes on. Could be special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 The euro trying to get something going one week from today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 25 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Just keeps getting better for Rochester. The big snows are down in the Virginia snow belts. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 31 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The big snows are down in the Virginia snow belts. Yeah, time to pack up and move to the winter wonderland known as Richmond. Charlotte looking good too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Whew! The latest 18z run of the HRRR is a weenie run for the N. Cuse weenies. The strong winds might hurt Wolfie and Blue Moon closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I could see watches being issued for Onondaga and Oneida counties with this evening's update. Though, BGM doesn't tend to issue those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Whew! The latest 18z run of the HRRR is a weenie run for the N. Cuse weenies. The strong winds might hurt Wolfie and Blue Moon closer to the lake. That has nothing to do with it TBH...It just keeps the band farther south.. Look at 18z Monday on the rgem vs Hrrr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That has nothing to do with it TBH...It just keeps the band farther south.. Look at 18z Monday on the rgem vs Hrrr.. Yeah the HRRR was WAY too far south for the Erie band that we just had. Had the bullseye from Dunkirk over my head and it landed up about 20-30 miles north of that. RGEM is best lake effect model in my opinion followed by the 3k NAM once your in close range (within 24-36 hours). I wouldn’t trust the HRRR at all for lake effect, I did and got burned badly (4” when it was forecasting 12-24” here consistently leading up to the event, before it finally caught on AFTER the event already started). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I am sure it's too far south, like they often are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around 2 feet in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow. For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. Heaviest lake effect snow will focus across northern Oswego and far southwest Lewis counties. * WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, from 7 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Nice write up explaining micro climate for upcoming event. Saying some 6 inch plus amounts possible in eastern monroe western wayne county. 3 to 6 in general niagara to wayne county Monday evening into Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 GFS has something for Saturday as well but more marginal then the euro... Either way pops raised to 50%.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I wonder if the new pattern will set up some opportunities for synoptic systems without rain involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 The reason eastern Monroe Western Wayne average 110 to 120 a year is a couple set ups like this a season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 First of many..They have low end at 17" lol Clearly hugging the rgem.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: First of many..They have low end at 17" lol Clearly hugging the rgem.. That looks good enough for it’s own thread. Be my guest to create as you’re in the jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Mostly a Carbon copy of the rgem for Oswego county..It did come slightly south with max amounts..3k? Absolutely hates me lol 12k looked the best it has so far fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Beautiful wintertime walk today. Ben loves the snow. Testing him out for some long winter walks before we attempt an Adirondack hike in winter together. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That looks good enough for it’s own thread. Be my guest to create as you’re in the jackpot zone. Kept it simple lol But it's open.. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56568-upstateeastern-new-york-jan-9-11-lake-effect-snow-event/?tab=comments#comment-6269211 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: The euro trying to get something going one week from today.. Miller B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 From one run to the next lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: From one run to the next lol Lol two 973mb lows a couple hundred miles apart sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lol two 973mb lows a couple hundred miles apart sure. A few eps members were close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Great depiction of Rochester’s mini snowbelt out near Penfield. There’s a little elevation out that way that helps I think. I’ve always wanted to get a home in that area. Irondequoit Bay might also aid in snow production there. Also saw your post regarding the ‘convergence’ zone in the disco and totally agree with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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