sferic Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: Ratios will be sky high late Sun. Night into Monday. IF this locks in, 2' amounts should be easily obtainable from between Mexico/Pulaski to Adams and inland from there. I received 2" more last night for an event total of just over 8"....not too shabby! Can't wait for Northen Onondagea to get those amounts as the towns north of us do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Looks like Sunday night-Tuesday will be our last winter weather until sometime after next weekend. Weds-Sun look slightly above normal for temps. After this time period the long range ENS show a great pattern, still pretty far out though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, sferic said: Yup, fine crystals indeed falling here too, driving to Clay later on today for shopping; great stores! Yeah, rt 31 has a lot of retail these days. I live just north of there. I like my location, semi rural but a short drive to Rt 31 for the 3 trips to Home Depot when working on home projects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Same “tea kettle” stuff down here this morning. Low of -0.2°. About 4” yesterday, first time I’ve plowed this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, rt 31 has a lot of retail these days. I live just north of there. I like my location, semi rural but a short drive to Rt 31 for the 3 trips to Home Depot when working on home projects. I love the Friendly's there, and The Olive Garden. There too is where I discovered Price Chopper only to realize there is one on Brewerton Road in Cicero However glad to hear there is a Raymour and Flanigan since we're furnishing our home from scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I posted this in the lake effect thread, too. My measurements from this morning: 5.3 inches of snow, 0.16 inch of liquid, ratio = 33:1. Also, the low here this morning was -7F, the lowest so far this season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I said problems start at .75” but I’d definitely agree it gets bad around 1”. But I’ve found people start getting real excited with small amounts and it just does matter unless you are driving. 91 was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 GEFS have a good pattern starting 1/16 to end of run with piece of PV N/NNE of Hudson bay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. Yeah - that’s like the 1998 storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: I think .5 inch is when the trouble starts. Anything over an inch is massive damage. You’re throwing around big numbers there. 2.5 inches is complete and utter destruction and probably a 100 year or more event. Yeah I agree with this 1/2" of ice is quite a bit. 1" + is massive damage. We used to have a lot of ice storms growing up, I know most don't like them but they're my favorite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I agree with this 1/2" of ice is quite a bit. 1" + is massive damage. We used to have a lot of ice storms growing up, I know most don't like them but they're my favorite. They mean some serious $ for me on storm duty. Of course unending 16+ hr days get old real fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Once the rgem locks in , it's like a pitbull, it never lets go lol..Six straight runs crushing northern Oswego.. 3k is a little south of the rgem but someone is going to get hit good either way.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Once the rgem locks in , it's like a pitbull, it never lets go lol..Six straight runs crushing northern Oswego.. 3k is a little south of the rgem but someone is going to get hit good either way.. Its close enough to start taking seriously. KBUF mentions 2'+ off Ontario. Can almost guarentee Carol gets 2' of snow off this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its close enough to start taking seriously. KBUF mentions 2'+ off Ontario. Can almost guarentee Carol gets 2' of snow off this. Looks a little south for Carol. But she’ll probably still get 2’. I’m liking this one for Tombo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Looks a little south for Carol. But she’ll probably still get 2’. I’m liking this one for Tombo. That's kind of hard to do considering carol is south of lowville.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Once the rgem locks in , it's like a pitbull, it never lets go lol..Six straight runs crushing northern Oswego.. 3k is a little south of the rgem but someone is going to get hit good either way.. Boo, the Rgem took N. Onondaga out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Once the rgem locks in , it's like a pitbull, it never lets go lol..Six straight runs crushing northern Oswego.. 3k is a little south of the rgem but someone is going to get hit good either way.. And remember, even Kuchera way underestimated this past event.....I think by late Sun night through Monday, the ratios will be similar...25-35:1...do the math.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 First double digit event of the season here in NW Onondaga yesterday. It could have been a warning rather than advisory, but the break in between two periods made it pretty manageable. 6 inches in the morning, then a break in the afternoon, then an additional 4 inches last night for a total of 10 inches. I went for a nice long Jebwalk and could see the stars with snow still gently falling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Boo, the Rgem took N. Onondaga out of the game. Darn, but that's the fun too how run to run things can shift. Surprises work both ways too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Looks like us N. Cuse guys get, I am guessing, maybe 3 to 6 inches tomorrow night. Then the band moves north and pounds Wolfie and tombo on Monday. Then round two for the Cuse guys Monday night as the NW winds kick in. Rochester should get in on this too at times. Oh, how I would love for this one to come true: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, sferic said: Darn, but that's the fun too how run to run things can shift. Surprises work both ways too! It brings us into the band a bit as it shifts back south. Just to prepare you...in events like this, the band could sit to your north for hours and hours while you agonizingly wait for a wind shift to push it south. Lake effect takes LOTS of patience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Well ARW doesn't really pound me lol But I'm not paying attention to many models but 1.. Time to live or die by the rgem lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Tughill has jackpotted 2-3 times this winter so far, hes not allowed to complain for at least 2 weeks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: Well ARW doesn't really pound me lol But I'm not paying attention to many models but 1.. Time to live or die by the rgem lol You called it a long time ago... It SUCKS at synoptic, but it is KING with lake effect. It amazes me how well it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: You called it a long time ago... It SUCKS at synoptic, but it is KING with lake effect. It amazes me how well it does. The NAM was the best model for the last LES event off Erie, took RGEM a few runs to catch up to it. A combo of NAM/RGEM within 48 hours is usually a solid bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Tughill has jackpotted 2-3 times this winter so far, hes not allowed to complain for at least 2 weeks. Ha! If I came across as complaining this morning, my apologies. I was just making observations. I know we like to set boundaries for me though with my high snow expectations. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: The NAM was the best model for the last LES event off Erie, took RGEM a few runs to catch up to it. A combo of NAM/RGEM within 48 hours is usually a solid bet. I am assuming the 3K Nam. I could see that, but I think the Rgem does Lake Ontario snows the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Just looking at the setup, I'd be surprised if wolf didn't get at least a foot out of next event. Even if winds change quickly that band is going to be 2-3" per easily. Only thing I'd be worried about is inland extent via the higher winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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