Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: That's cool, but no snow. Maybe get a lingering streamer this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Next week I get subzero and a single digit high, so at least it'll feel like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 26 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: That's cool, but no snow. Maybe get a lingering streamer this weekend You gotta move to the snowbelts of the mid south to get reliable snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 24 minutes ago, Syrmax said: You gotta move to the snowbelts of the mid south to get reliable snows! Yeah, torn between Alabama and eastern VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Well the pattern on the GFS looked as it good as it can for the lakes region..I counted about 5-6 N stream disturbances and a couple S Stream as well.. Trough after trough swinging through the entire run, we'll see how that goes lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well the pattern on the GFS looked as it good as it can for the lakes region..I counted about 5-6 N stream disturbances and a couple S Stream as well.. Trough after trough swinging through the entire run, we'll see how that goes lol Just looked and wow... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: That's cool, but no snow. Maybe get a lingering streamer this weekend Yep... yawwwwnnnn. Outside of the localized lake effect, nothing on the horizon any time soon for synoptic snow. Until then, peace out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 58 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yep... yawwwwnnnn. Outside of the localized lake effect, nothing on the horizon any time soon for synoptic snow. Until then, peace out. Nah. There’ll be something big next week. Pattern looks good 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just looked and wow... Yeah, Jan in trouble other than random LES... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Well the pattern on the GFS looked as it good as it can for the lakes region..I counted about 5-6 N stream disturbances and a couple S Stream as well.. Trough after trough swinging through the entire run, we'll see how that goes lol Reminds me of that pattern from February 2015. Just wish we had a nice snowpack laid down to ride it out with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: That's cool, but no snow. Maybe get a lingering streamer this weekend Did you see the 18z GFS? It was chance after chance. Nothing huge but with 2 weeks of solid cold it was all snow and there are some details to work out in the long range but some are close to big systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Updated BGM disco - looks like maybe convective snow squalls possible tomorrow: In late morning-early afternoon, upper wave takes on a negative tilt while pivoting through the area with shot of cold air advection. There is some suggestion showing up in the models of steep lapse rates/instability right at dendritic growth layer between 3-8 kft, even outside of the main lake effect area. Snow shower clusters, while not adding up to a lot of accumulation overall, could still pack a punch and be squally generally for counties along and west of I-81 in NY; possibly briefly into far Northern Tier PA. These snow showers could result in rapid changes in visibility and quick thin coatings of snow on roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 39 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, Jan in trouble other than random LES... You live in Clay where 50-60% of your seasonal average is lake effect? I figured most of upstate is similar with their averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Very light synoptic snow has started here. Ready for the traditional dusting and then hopefully several inches of lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 50 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Reminds me of that pattern from February 2015. Just wish we had a nice snowpack laid down to ride it out with. Syracuse airport recorded 60 inches of snowfall and had an average snow depth of almost 2 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Someone SE of lake ontario should cash in on Mon/Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Someone SE of lake ontario should cash in on Mon/Tues. The models were looking great for lake effect for us and now...nothing on Monday? What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Looks like a much shorter time period of just Tuesday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: You live in Clay where 50-60% of your seasonal average is lake effect? I figured most of upstate is similar with their averages. About 1/3rd to 1/2 depending on the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Suprise .8" from coastal this morning.... Looks like us folks SE of Ontario will be thrown some LES scraps today. Max totals of 8-10" probably far W. Oswego Co., N. Cayuga Co., NW Onondaga Co. by midnight. Should be in two waves....from 8-10 am (band falls off lakeshore) and then from 1pm- 8pm (band re-forms early afternoon) and slowly tapering overnight... should be a single band...with a couple smaller/lighter bands in Oswego and Wayne Cos. NWS @ SYR about 4-5"...and around 6-7" IMBY, Caz. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Another day, another inch. Improvement over the daily dusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Another day, another inch. Improvement over the daily dusting. About 0.8" at 8 a.m. here, could be about 1" now, which feels like a win already. We picked up a heavy dusting from the synoptic fringe last night. Would have been a tough measurement call as to 0.1" or T. Fortunately the lake has saved me from that excruciating dilemma. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 The main eastern US snowbelt of SNE is scoring big time today. SNAFU in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Rgem already coming in with the runs lol The one thing for sure is it will be cold.. Temps will probably be in the teens under that band.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Forecast as of now, obviously subject to change.. Sunday Night Snow showers. Low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Snow showers. High near 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Today's 00Z GooFuS had a nice hit for everyone. Out at about 348 hours....it was also forecasting the pandemic to end by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Yeah it will never happen because we don't get storm tracks like that anymore..lol But it shows me all I need to know lol Winds out of the SE instead of NE (no downsloping) and backside winds westerly... Maybe one day just maybe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah it will never happen because we don't get storm tracks like that anymore..lol But it shows me all I need to know lol Winds out of the SE instead of NE (no downsloping) and backside winds westerly... Maybe one day just maybe lol I am thinking Feb 1994 type deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Looks like I'll be right on the line of 3 or 4" or a decent event this weekend, then in the icebox. -5° is much easier to embrace when there's deep snowpack. Pointless cold doesn't really do it for me unless it was wildly extreme. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2021 was 5th warmest at BGM. 6/10 warmest happened in the past 15 years. 9/10 warmest happened from 1990-present. Not good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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