rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Interesting little feature. These accompany many of the best events along the south shore. You can’t predict these but good to see all the ingredients on the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Still an eternity till that Monday event and none of the globals really agree with each other.. GFS has some northern kinks near Ontario in an otherwise westerly flow, euro at the same time has more of a W-WSW flow..One keeps the strongest part of the band to the north and the other to the south lol Just another 100 model runs to go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Still an eternity till that Monday event and none of the globals really agree with each other.. GFS has some northern kinks near Ontario in an otherwise westerly flow, euro at the same time has more of a W-WSW flow..One keeps the strongest part of the band to the north and the other to the south lol Just another 100 model runs to go.. You can see a bunch of shortwaves move through that will likely change the wind directions. It's the ideal pattern for Upstate for constant snows if the cold air being modeled comes with it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Euro suggests a long duration event on the SE corner of Ontario. Too early obviously but something to watch. It could be a big one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks, I think so too. Though, with the amount of burns and fails the past several years, one is bound to be skeptical. I could see it being a 6 to 12 inch event if we can get the moisture for enhancement. Yeah, i can see that for @wolfie09 and his "people" but for us cursed flatlanders... you get paddy water. DIrty VC get paddy water. (Arcane Apocalypse Now reference). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Yeah, i can see that for @wolfie09 and his "people" but for us cursed flatlanders... you get paddy water. DIrty VC get paddy water. (Arcane Apocalypse Now reference). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Maybe squeak out an inch of fluff here, I'll take it as my last dusting is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Newest update from BGM NWS. When did SW Onondaga become the snowbelt?! At least I am in the "Western" part. They're thinking a more conservative advisory. Friday morning the coastal storm exits early stage right. The low level flow shifts from north to northeast as the upper level trough moves east of our region. A deep northwest flow sets up during the afternoon into the evening. The incoming air mass will be cold with high temperatures mostly in the 20s. The moisture level drops below 10k feet midday but the 2 to 3k foot dendrite zone stays at the top of the moisture level. Several inches of snow is likely from Cayuga and Onondaga Counties southeast to Madison, Chenango, and Cortland Counties. Western and southern Onondaga county will get the most snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 BUF NWS for southern Lake Ontarioans: Lake effect snow parameters become favorable for snow growth, with equilibrium levels rising towards 8-9K feet, with ample moisture located through the snow DGZ. The snow off Lake Erie may be more multi banded and focused upon the Chautauqua Ridge, though a skinny band of snow from an upstream connection to Lake Huron is possible towards western Chautauqua County. The snowband off Lake Ontario will likely be singular with an upstream connection possible to Georgian Bay. This singular band will have the potential to yield snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour off Lake Ontario. A look at the upper air pattern, the position and height of a trough at both 850 hPa and 500 hPa lies very close to events that have brought warning criteria snow in the past southeast of Lake Ontario. One of the drawbacks right now is wind direction. The band of snow off Lake Ontario, starting near the southern Tug Hill early Friday morning will quickly drop southward towards the southern Lake Ontario shoreline once the upper level trough passes across the region. However the deepening surface low now off the New England coastline may draw this band of snow eastward some. If the band of snow does oscillate, snowfall amounts will be much lower than if it could lock on to one location. Off both lakes advisory level snows are likely, with higher and more widespread snow totals off Lake Ontario. For now will continue to mention this event in the HWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Lots of short-lived bouts of cold and then it milds right back up. Perhaps we can get more persistent cold at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Newest update from BGM NWS. When did SW Onondaga become the snowbelt?! At least I am in the "Western" part. They're thinking a more conservative advisory. Friday morning the coastal storm exits early stage right. The low level flow shifts from north to northeast as the upper level trough moves east of our region. A deep northwest flow sets up during the afternoon into the evening. The incoming air mass will be cold with high temperatures mostly in the 20s. The moisture level drops below 10k feet midday but the 2 to 3k foot dendrite zone stays at the top of the moisture level. Several inches of snow is likely from Cayuga and Onondaga Counties southeast to Madison, Chenango, and Cortland Counties. Western and southern Onondaga county will get the most snow. Been like that quite often the past few winters. I've sort of given up on even hoping for a favorable wind direction as even when we nominally get one, the band gets oriented just to our W and SW. Or just to the north, as is more typical due to L.O. "shoreline effects" that ensure decent single bands only get in here as they get flushed south by a passing s/w and fall off the end of the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: BUF NWS for southern Lake Ontarioans: Lake effect snow parameters become favorable for snow growth, with equilibrium levels rising towards 8-9K feet, with ample moisture located through the snow DGZ. The snow off Lake Erie may be more multi banded and focused upon the Chautauqua Ridge, though a skinny band of snow from an upstream connection to Lake Huron is possible towards western Chautauqua County. The snowband off Lake Ontario will likely be singular with an upstream connection possible to Georgian Bay. This singular band will have the potential to yield snowfall rates of at least an inch per hour off Lake Ontario. A look at the upper air pattern, the position and height of a trough at both 850 hPa and 500 hPa lies very close to events that have brought warning criteria snow in the past southeast of Lake Ontario. One of the drawbacks right now is wind direction. The band of snow off Lake Ontario, starting near the southern Tug Hill early Friday morning will quickly drop southward towards the southern Lake Ontario shoreline once the upper level trough passes across the region. However the deepening surface low now off the New England coastline may draw this band of snow eastward some. If the band of snow does oscillate, snowfall amounts will be much lower than if it could lock on to one location. Off both lakes advisory level snows are likely, with higher and more widespread snow totals off Lake Ontario. For now will continue to mention this event in the HWO Now the silly LP is going to steal my snow? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Are any of you having problems with tidbits? Neither the GFS or NAM has updated to 18z for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Yeah not uploading. Go to pivitol weather. Working there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 If we could have gotten this system in the northern stream to go AWAY, this southern system would be able to actually give us something. Dusting here, dusting there. Hopefully the lake provides for CNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Trying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Can confirm, just had a brief dusting of styrofoam snow here. #32 for the season. Amazingly, our 1/4" pack mostly survived today's micro torch with cloudy skies and low (but increasing) sun angle. It's down to a "T" and barely hanging on, much like the rest of us in CNY. Now we get to enjoy cold winds, subsidence, dry air, and a stray flurry the rest of the week. Hopefully the sun comes out at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Can confirm, just had a brief dusting of styrofoam snow here. #32 for the season. Amazingly, our 1/4" pack mostly survived today's micro torch with cloudy skies and low (but increasing) sun angle. It's down to a "T" and barely hanging on, much like the rest of us in CNY. Now we get to enjoy cold winds, subsidence, dry air, and a stray flurry the rest of the week. Hopefully the sun comes out at least. Same here. I see the HRW models and the NAMs are showing the Friday lake effect snows across SOUTHERN Onondaga county. At least the Rgem has northern Onondaga, but the lake precip. looks weaker and weaker with every run. I give up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Monday Tuesday looks nice for south se of ontario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Somehow I got an inch of snow overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Somehow I got an inch of snow overnight. About 1/2" down here. At least it's white! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 58 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said: About 1/2" down here. At least it's white! We got a solid dusting overnight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 0.0 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 GFS trend for Monday into Tuesday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Canadian is different than the GFS, pretty much just a fropa with some weakish LES behind it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I'm not even looking to Monday and Tuesday. Looks like it's becoming another disappointment. Models seem to again be going towards a SW Onondaga hit for tomorrow. I wonder when this 3 year crapfest will draw to a conclusion? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 54 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm not even looking to Monday and Tuesday. Looks like it's becoming another disappointment. Models seem to again be going towards a SW Onondaga hit for tomorrow. I wonder when this 3 year crapfest will draw to a conclusion? We are also wondering….when you’ll be moving back to Michigan… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, winter_rules said: We are also wondering….when you’ll be moving back to Michigan… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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