TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 According the New England forum, the 18Z EPS came west and look juiced. It looks like many have the Low sitting off the Massachusetts coast. Not sure that helps us too much...but that's usually a good spot for enhanced snows off the lakes (despite what BGM NWS says!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: According the New England forum, the 18Z EPS came west and look juiced. It looks like many have the Low sitting off the Massachusetts coast. Not sure that helps us too much...but that's usually a good spot for enhanced snows off the lakes (despite what BGM NWS says!) Everything but the GFS has come NW - and some by quite a bit. As expected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Everything but the GFS has come NW. a - and some by quite a bit. As expected! Well, some of them were further NW yesterday, then went SE, and came back NW a bit. The Ukie and Euro went SE. Fortunately, the short range models are agreeing more on a NW track. The models are going to have to take a pretty big jump in order for us to get more than a very trivial 1 to 3 inch ordeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Well, some of them were further NW yesterday, then went SE, and came back NW a bit. The Ukie and Euro went SE. Fortunately, the short range models are agreeing more on a NW track. The models are going to have to take a pretty big jump in order for us to get more than a very trivial 1 to 3 inch ordeal. I have been watching mostly for the lake effect. The 18z Euro and EPS show it again along with the RGEM. I also think closer to the coast and we can get some region-wide lake enhanced mood snows on Friday AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I have been watching mostly for the lake effect. The 18z Euro and EPS show it again along with the RGEM. I also think closer to the coast and we can get some region-wide lake enhanced mood snows on Friday AM. Did you have the 18Z Euro map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: E12 please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Downstate weenies broke tidbits. Again…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 We still talking about this turd of a storm. Hahaa 34 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: E12 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Yawn. Nams look even worse. We're chasing after another synoptic dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 0Z runs barely give us flurries through the end of the week. Another boring winter week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: 0Z runs barely give us flurries through the end of the week. Another boring winter week. There's always March and April... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 RGEM and especially NAM really try to get it to snow here. Another shift from 06z to 12z that there was from 00z to 06z and I'd be in business. Grasping at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 37 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: RGEM and especially NAM really try to get it to snow here. Another shift from 06z to 12z that there was from 00z to 06z and I'd be in business. Grasping at straws. The backside lake effect band could mean business if this keeps creeping closer to the coast… 6z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 06z Canadian shifted west considerably.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Some time over the years I heard that that new data is only incorporated into the models for the 0z and 12z runs. Therefore, the 0z and 6z runs use the same data, as well as 12z and 18z. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, winter_rules said: Some time over the years I heard that that new data is only incorporated into the models for the 0z and 12z runs. Therefore, the 0z and 6z runs use the same data, as well as 12z and 18z. Is that correct? I think that changed like 10 years ago. All model runs have new data i believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, winter_rules said: Some time over the years I heard that that new data is only incorporated into the models for the 0z and 12z runs. Therefore, the 0z and 6z runs use the same data, as well as 12z and 18z. Is that correct? Not really...there is a lot of new data that goes into the "off hour" runs...satellite, bouy, ship, etc....just not balloons... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Big Q of the week here, can our 1/4" "pack" survive the torching today? Will we get re-dusted... Or are we back to mid-December greenfield status? Inquiring minds want to know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 BGM NWS: Here's to hoping... The focus on Friday then turns to the cold air arriving on the back side of the departing low pressure system. A cold westerly flow will set up initially mid to late Friday morning and trigger the beginning of lake effect snow from around Syracuse to Utica and north into the southern Tug Hill. The overall flow pattern will veer more toward the northwest later in the day Friday and Friday night which will allow the lake band(s) to shift to the south. There should be plenty of cold air available with 850mb temps down to around -15 to -17 C, and a persistent northwest wind with a potential upstream lake connection to keep the lake effect band going into at least Friday evening and possibly Friday night. There also may be a weak source of moisture wrapping around the system off the coast to help enhance the depth of the mixed layer feeding into central NY. Snowfall rates late Fri and Fri evening could become high enough for some significant accumulations. Will need to monitor the potential for winter headlines during this time moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 From KBGM AFD for this evening: ...A quick dusting to half inch will be possible in any snow showers this afternoon for those lucky enough to be impacted by one. ... And here we are. Waiting for table scraps like a mooching dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 17 minutes ago, Syrmax said: From KBGM AFD for this evening: ...A quick dusting to half inch will be possible in any snow showers this afternoon for those lucky enough to be impacted by one. ... And here we are. Waiting for table scraps like a mooching dog. I don't know why, but I found their use of the words "lucky enough" amusing. I think it's pretty clear they're finding this "pattern" ridiculous as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Syrmax said: From KBGM AFD for this evening: ...A quick dusting to half inch will be possible in any snow showers this afternoon for those lucky enough to be impacted by one. ... And here we are. Waiting for table scraps like a mooching dog. You get nothing and you’ll like it! I think that was posted before but it’s true for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: You get nothing and you’ll like it! I think that was posted before but it’s true for us. Lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: From KBGM AFD for this evening: ...A quick dusting to half inch will be possible in any snow showers this afternoon for those lucky enough to be impacted by one. ... And here we are. Waiting for table scraps like a mooching dog. Just the fact that they are mentioning “a dusting to half an inch” in CNY is sad. That should happen most days in a decent winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The Synoptic Snow Shield starts here and stretches to the NY borders. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The Synoptic Snow Shield starts here and stretches to the NY borders. I think you’re in a good spot for enhancement. Someone from Roc-Syr gets 4-8”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I think you’re in a good spot for enhancement. Someone from Roc-Syr gets 4-8”. Thanks, I think so too. Though, with the amount of burns and fails the past several years, one is bound to be skeptical. I could see it being a 6 to 12 inch event if we can get the moisture for enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Then a much colder airmass arrives Sunday Night, changing the precipitation back over to snow. This will bring the potential for more lake effect snow as cold air deepens across the region later Monday and into Tuesday with 850mb temps down to -20C or even colder. Lake snows will focus east of the lakes Monday, then shift south/southeast of the lakes by Tuesday following the passage of an arctic front. Cold air mass will support fluffy snow with ratios 20:1 or more possible. The timeframe will be limited, but this could support another round of significant snow accumulations with more lake effect headlines likely to be needed. Behind this arctic front Tuesday will be cold, with highs in the mid teens across WNY and single digits east of Lake Ontario. A brisk northerly wind accompanying this arctic front will bring wind chills well below zero for much of the region Monday Night, Tuesday east of Lake Ontario...and then again region wide later Tuesday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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