CNY_WX Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Models are jumping all over the place with the placement of the low. Until there’s some consistency from run to run within a model and between models we don’t know the ultimate outcome in sensible weather. This morning’s GFS run will be interesting. Is there another NW jog in the cards? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Models have actually been pretty consistent since yesterday. Showing a middling LP near the big city bench mark. It’s our ‘expectations’ that have been jumping all over the place. It’s going to take a BIG change for this one to be anything. But hey, it’s not on shore yet. It will change. Probably flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Rgem is a complete whiff..To make matters worse it's restricting the lake band lol It does have some lake snows E/SE of Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem is a complete whiff..To make matters worse it's restricting the lake band lol It does have some lake snows E/SE of Ontario.. 12Z GooFuS looks similar...keeps synoptic snowstorm down in the Mid Atl / SNE snowbelts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Good insight from one the best Met posters in the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 That is some really cold air on the GFS, bet there are a few arctic fronts that won't be picked up until we get closer as that moves through with some intense squalls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Good insight from one the best Met posters in the New England forum. tl;dr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 GEM is a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEM is a whiff That lake effect looks pretty far south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Instead of watching model runs and overanalyzing them, I guess it's back to overanalyzing radars to see if a five mile wide band of lake effect snow can move through for a couple hours. I can't believe I have to watch Seattle, Huntsville, and DC news stations to see some real snow falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Instead of watching model runs and overanalyzing them, I guess it's back to overanalyzing radars to see if a five mile wide band of lake effect snow can move through for a couple hours. I can't believe I have to watch Seattle, Huntsville, and DC news stations to see some real snow falling. KBUF and KTYX radars and webcams are still available for your viewing pleasure! I know, its fake snow (and it falls apart like the NY Giants when it moves near our location), but short Sunday Driver road trips to see heavy snowfall are pretty easy from here. Only an hour or so up to KART. We are truly #blessed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 What in God's name is happening around here? I mean, this is the absolute worst, and I haven't seen it this bad since I moved up here! It just keeps getting worse and worse, lol, WOW! There's a split flow storm track, or so it seems with every storm system this yr so far, and just when we thought some decent cold air was incoming, we instead continue the roller-coaster. The track to the North brings just enough warm air that we see a change over, or just plain rain from the get go, then after the CF passes, we cool off and we also dry out so that whatever cold air is left over, is completely dry and stale, disgusting!We need a blockbuster to reset the whole pattern cause this shite is getting OLD and fast!Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Time to stick a fork in it unless the Euro shows some miraculous improvement. Flat flat flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 20 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: What in God's name is happening around here? I mean, this is the absolute worst, and I haven't seen it this bad since I moved up here! It just keeps getting worse and worse, lol, WOW! There's a split flow storm track, or so it seems with every storm system this yr so far, and just when we thought some decent cold air was incoming, we instead continue the roller-coaster. The track to the North brings just enough warm air that we see a change over, or just plain rain from the get go, then after the CF passes, we cool off and we also dry out so that whatever cold air is left over, is completely dry and stale, disgusting! We need a blockbuster to reset the whole pattern cause this shite is getting OLD and fast! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Time to stick a fork in it unless the Euro shows some miraculous improvement. Flat flat flat. After this morning’s runs I’m resigned to this storm being toast for us. It’s on to the rain this weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 If we get this in January and we don’t get some decent snow all is lost for upstate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yeah GFS, Canadian still have some goods Monday and Tuesday, we'll see how that works out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Lets just go for record low snowfall at this point...save all the snow days this winter so we can get extra days off in Memorial day when it starts snowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS lights up the lakes like a Christmas tree lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 12Z Euro out near the Benchmark with a 991 mb slp. Pretty much flushes any synoptic system for upstate. After that...passing fronts and weak systems with R/S chances and probably seasonable temps. Not inspiring. Time to start looking at spring planting ideas... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 For the south shore it looks like we’ll be fighting over scraps. I will say I’ve seen worst set-ups for lake effect on the back side of the ‘storm’. Fluffy few inches aren’t out of the possibility. Of course we’ll be fighting with dry air. But Freak summed it up nicely. Screw this winter. Dog turd central 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Long range still looks good for normal/slightly below normal temps for rest of January. Probably a bunch of lake effect spread throughout the region, not seeing much synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: If we get this in January and we don’t get some decent snow all is lost for upstate. Thats one hell of a good looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Really like Monday teusday for south shore. Artic front interaction with lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z 3KM final frame. Can you imagine the I95 crew with this kind of shadowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'll take it if it can cover the freakin grass tips completely. Let's get that lake involved. (Although I don't know how SW Onondaga county has somehow become the snowbelt now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Whoop, there it is... Snow amounts now around an inch in CNY to 2 to 3 inches Scranton to Monticello and points south. Surface Temperatures mostly in the 20s so event will be all snow. Low pressures consolidate and intensify off the mid Atlantic coast then head quickly northeast well off the New England coast. The better forcing and moisture remains to our southeast. The 12z models agree on this scenario. As this storm exits much colder air comes in from the northeast Friday. At this time moisture from the storm does not look to wrap around to aid the lake effect snow showers. A few inches of snow is possible Friday from the eastern Finger Lakes into the upper Susquehanna Region. A cool breezy mostly cloudy day with highs in the 20s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 As the title of this thread says, the tughill curse is too strong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Whoop, there it is... Snow amounts now around an inch in CNY to 2 to 3 inches Scranton to Monticello and points south. Surface Temperatures mostly in the 20s so event will be all snow. Low pressures consolidate and intensify off the mid Atlantic coast then head quickly northeast well off the New England coast. The better forcing and moisture remains to our southeast. The 12z models agree on this scenario. As this storm exits much colder air comes in from the northeast Friday. At this time moisture from the storm does not look to wrap around to aid the lake effect snow showers. A few inches of snow is possible Friday from the eastern Finger Lakes into the upper Susquehanna Region. A cool breezy mostly cloudy day with highs in the 20s. It gets more disappointing with each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Turd gonna turd. Even buffalo lake snow looks muted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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