DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I don't usually get hung up on small variations in temps compared to forecasts, but tonight's low in ROC is forecast to be 17, its already 13 at the airport and 10 in my backyard. Radiational cooling for the win, and impressively underestimated by the models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Down to 12° here. Already the coldest night of the winter season here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 here in skaneateles with time to keep dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 9 degrees in Caz. Picked up an inch last night/this morning... Maybe the models forgot how to incorporate radiational cooling into their outputs.. Still thinking Buffalo metro will see over a foot... And probably some jackpots of near 2'. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z Euro has the shortwave a little more north so far thru h75. Hopefully that translates to a better solution downstream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro has the shortwave a little more north so far thru h75. Hopefully that translates to a better solution downstream. Doesn’t look good for us. Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro has the shortwave a little more north so far thru h75. Hopefully that translates to a better solution downstream. Need to see 90h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 18z only ended marginally better than 12z. Here the final 6 hour surface frame and a 12 hour precip compare between 12z and 18z thru H90... 18z precip 12z precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 22 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 9 degrees in Caz. Picked up an inch last night/this morning... Maybe the models forgot how to incorporate radiational cooling into their outputs.. Still thinking Buffalo metro will see over a foot... And probably some jackpots of near 2'. We’re at 9° at 7:30pm down in Delaware County but it’s especially impressive to me because there is no snowcover at all. We almost always have at least an inch or two, but there isn’t even a dusting right now. Pretty impressive temps with exposed earth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z only ended marginally better than 12z. Here a 12 hour precip compare between 12z and 18z thru H90... 18z 12z We can squeeze another dusting out of those progs. Seems about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I would NOT. You win the Snow Weenie with one nut award. 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: Desperate times call for desperate measures. Ok, sure. I will sacrifice @rochesterdave's left nut for that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, winter_rules said: We’re at 9° at 7:30pm down in Delaware County but it’s especially impressive to me because there is no snowcover at all. We almost always have at least an inch or two, but there isn’t even a dusting right now. Pretty impressive temps with exposed earth. Proof that radiational cooling off of frozen dog turds is underestimated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: We can squeeze another dusting out of those progs. Seems about right. Probably lose atleast half as virga lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ok, sure. I will sacrifice @rochesterdave's left nut for that. I’ll do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 right now in lowville. -2 this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’ll do it Thanks for taking one for the team...er, giving one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 EPS shifted a little east again from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Dog turd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Atleast it looks like uniform dog turd across the entire Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 41 minutes ago, tim123 said: Dog turd Our new mantra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 NAM more amped than 18z but still a bit too south for a widespread decent hit. Extrapolated might be decent for atleast southern parts of C/E NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 -1 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: NAM stronger and more amped than 18z but still a bit too south for a widespread decent hit. Extrapolated might be good for atleast southern parts of C/E NY. Last two runs...wave off coast is much weaker....which is good...let's see if something has been incorporated into the entire 00z suite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Broad shield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Broad shield ...AND a snowhole right over Buffalowx's house... All is well with this run... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Small nw jog on the ICON but still a complete miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM looks about the same as 18z but more constricted precip shield. Still a complete miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 GFS is much improved this run on H5. S/w is more amped and digging in much better thru H72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Big change! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Broad shield Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the NAM out beyond say...24-48 hrs considered #DogTurd? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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