cleetussnow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Got to admit, the GFS has been a lot better than the EURO for a while now. Remember the years the EURO was like some kind off infallible god? It was called King Euro for a long time, until the early 2010s when an upgrade messed it up seemingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Gfs past year has been very good. Upgrade was needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: It was called King Euro for a long time, until the early 2010s when an upgrade messed it up seemingly. I do wonder if sometimes having too much ‘computing power’ just confuses them. Definitely seems it has lost its luster from the days it would nail something a week out. I remember it called the Storm of the Century nearly 7 days out (might of been more). Could be I’m just glamorizing the memory of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I do wonder if sometimes having too much ‘computing power’ just confuses them. Definitely seems it has lost its luster from the days it would nail something a week out. I remember it called the Storm of the Century nearly 7 days out (might of been more). Could be I’m just glamorizing the memory of it. God storm of century was so long ago. Thanks for making me feel old. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I do wonder if sometimes having too much ‘computing power’ just confuses them. Definitely seems it has lost its luster from the days it would nail something a week out. I remember it called the Storm of the Century nearly 7 days out (might of been more). Could be I’m just glamorizing the memory of it. Same for hurricane/Superstorm sandy.. The European model earned particular fame in 2012 when it accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy would make a hard turn into the northeast coast of the United States before the American model. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 21 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: @Syrmax and @CNY_WX, what do you think our odds are that the grass will be completely covered in this area by next weekend? I actually considered starting a poll on this. lol 20 hours ago, Syrmax said: Completely covered? Blade tips showing? 33%. 20 hours ago, CNY_WX said: 10:1 with an over/under of 1 1/2 inches. Recalculating... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The Euro was steady but had biases. We knew how to fade it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18z NAM is pathetic and a would-be dusting at best most likely. Hopefully the models are just lost due to the energy not being onshore yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: To be fair it’s about 5 miles north but the very heaviest accumulation will be airport or just south to Lancaster, Depew, Blasdell, Hamburg…I think the north areas are between 6-18” (N-S) with 24”+ in the areas I identified. Yeah, I don’t think this is going to break the 20 year LES blockbuster drought for downtown through the north towns. I also have a bad feeling about winds in the first part of the storm - we have seen high winds and sheer break up bands in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z NAM is pathetic and a would-be dusting at best most likely. Hopefully the models are just lost due to the energy not being onshore yet. We said that last storm. How'd that work out for us? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, WNash said: Yeah, I don’t think this is going to break the 20 year LES blockbuster drought for downtown through the north towns. I also have a bad feeling about winds in the first part of the storm - we have seen high winds and sheer break up bands in the city. It’s not high winds. Not even advisory type winds. Just some gusts up to 40. That’s 10 to 20mph winds sustained. Nothing out of the ordinary. Plus why is everyone so negative about this event? Yes we’ve been burned, it’s the weather. Just look at the actual features as they are being uncovered and go from there. A 240 vector is dead center metro Buffalo, that’s the wind vector the NWS is seeing, not any of us. We’re speculating at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 New map including all of Thursday from BUF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I don't think Snowlesscuse is going to win that Golden Snowball this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Rgem is trying...if we get the last minute shift NW to actually work for us, maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 BGM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Same for hurricane/Superstorm sandy.. The European model earned particular fame in 2012 when it accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy would make a hard turn into the northeast coast of the United States before the American model. . Wow Wolfie! Look at that! 216 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: New map including all of Thursday from BUF. Rgem shows nothing like this. Barely has any inland penetration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Same for hurricane/Superstorm sandy.. The European model earned particular fame in 2012 when it accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy would make a hard turn into the northeast coast of the United States before the American model. . what a storm that was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I don't think Snowlesscuse is going to win that Golden Snowball this year... So, the rain and cold front passage next week is all we have left? Will have to scour deep into the off hour runs of the JMA to keep hope alive for the next 2 weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: So, the rain and cold front passage next week is all we have left? Will have to scour deep into the off hour runs of the JMA to keep hope alive for the next 2 weeks. Jma for the win! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: So, the rain and cold front passage next week is all we have left? Will have to scour deep into the off hour runs of the JMA to keep hope alive for the next 2 weeks. Lol..I know. 40s Wednesday...40s next Sunday. Our dustings can't handle that sizzle! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: I do wonder if sometimes having too much ‘computing power’ just confuses them. Definitely seems it has lost its luster from the days it would nail something a week out. I remember it called the Storm of the Century nearly 7 days out (might of been more). Could be I’m just glamorizing the memory of it. The 1993 triple-phase was showing on models at least 5 days out, maybe more. I distinctly remember being in the Met labs with my classmates drooling over those maps. Interesting read for GFS upgrades recently: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Forecast_System 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I’d give my left nut 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’d give my left nut I would NOT. You win the Snow Weenie with one nut award. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Sorry guys, Lake Erie is 95% ice covered as of this afternoon. We had an extreme latent heat release flash freeze event today when the cold temps finally came in. Caused by climate change. BUF will be dropping watches soon, max snowfall off Erie won’t exceed 1 inch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I would NOT. You win the Snow Weenie with one nut award. Syracuse would get over 2’ with that. You sure you wouldn’t give it up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Maybe some sleeper flakes tonight? Noticed the HiRes was painting some tea kettled scattered lake effect NE of Erie tonight. Doesn’t look to be much more than an inch but the NAM actually wants to develop a band after midnight for a short time and was showing up to 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18z ICON is almost a perfect carbon copy of today's storm(weaker, but similar reflection). Lol, still better than it showing nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 49 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I would NOT. You win the Snow Weenie with one nut award. Desperate times call for desperate measures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 18z GEFS ticked W, but still a lot of work to do for anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now