CNY_WX Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: All is not lost though, GFS does have a nice Spring rain on tap for Sunday! I thought you’d like that. It does have a pretty potent lake event after the frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Buffalo and 1 mile in each direction (but north) looks to be the only game in town. You guys better eat it up because long range looks pretty iffy again. I should quit my bitching as we got another 1/2” last night off the lake for a total of 4” for the event. Right in line with the 3k amongst others that were lower end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12 GEFS. Literally 0-for-30 for even a decent hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Freeze thaw dog turd warning in effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Buffalo and 1 mile in each direction (but north) looks to be the only game in town. You guys better eat it up because long range looks pretty iffy again. I should quit my bitching as we got another 1/2” last night off the lake for a total of 4” for the event. Right in line with the 3k amongst others that were lower end. To be fair it’s about 5 miles north but the very heaviest accumulation will be airport or just south to Lancaster, Depew, Blasdell, Hamburg…I think the north areas are between 6-18” (N-S) with 24”+ in the areas I identified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12 GEFS. Literally 0-for-30 for even a decent hit. Ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Lol...this winter....I'm cracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 UK went way E as well. Looks close to the GFS. Not even worth posting a map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lol...this winter....I'm cracking. Pull yourself together, man. Stiff upper lip and all that rot. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 So Mike Cejka (local Met WIVB channel 4 Buffalo)is stating the metro is going to get a quick hit from the lake effect…not 1 model is showing this with the exception of their in-house garbage model…every year they have a terrible south bias to their model and every year it’s much further north than it states…terrible… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Since the GFS was on its and not budging...like I said last night if a model is stubborn and doesn't "fall in line" the others seem to follow suit...especially these days when synoptic snows of over an inch DON'T exist in CNY. Best to be skeptical of anything showing a snowstorm hitting. The overall pattern is just garbage. Reshuffle please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: So Mike Cejka (local Met WIVB channel 4 Buffalo)is stating the metro is going to get a quick hit from the lake effect…not 1 model is showing this with the exception of their in-house garbage model…every year they have a terrible south bias to their model and every year it’s much further north than it states…terrible… To be fair the GFS and Rgem are the only ones that show the band up in the metro for a sustained period of time. I think it’s still too far out to be confident of anything right now. Another 24 hours from now we should have a better picture but I could see BUF getting 3” or 30” as it stands right now so still lots to figure out and we have the time to do it. Don’t think BUF pulls a watch until tomorrow morning after tonight’s model runs. Still 48-60 hours from the event start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Atleast we got lake effect. Imagine the forum if we had no great lakes. Would be non existing. Gotta say western ny is due for some extreme weather. Been several years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: To be fair the GFS and Rgem are the only ones that show the band up in the metro for a sustained period of time. I think it’s still too far out to be confident of anything right now. Another 24 hours from now we should have a better picture but I could see BUF getting 3” or 30” as it stands right now so still lots to figure out and we have the time to do it. Don’t think BUF pulls a watch until tomorrow morning after tonight’s model runs. Still 48-60 hours from the event start. And the euro which is way off and correcting towards the GFS is what both 2 and 4 are showing…so they’re riding the euro right off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Atleast we got lake effect. Imagine the forum if we had no great lakes. Would be non existing. Gotta say western ny is due for some extreme weather. Been several years. Lake effect? Syracuse missed out on the band I got in November...total for the year there is below 14 inches. Those lakes have done almost nothing for us this winter...or last...It's just been a garbage trio of winters. Lake effect only works when we actually have cold air...and SOME moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Good news is the storm doesn't even start to come onshore until tomorrow evening so while not a great 12z run thus far, big swings in the models shouldn't be completely surprising at this range. There's still plenty of time for correction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Anyone notice the little streamer of ontario today on a ne wind. Kinda neat to see on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 His forecast was for the band in Thursday at 2pm over southern Erie and Northern Chautauqua…remarkably different from the NWS forecast…and the icing on it he said the band at its heaviest MIGHT reach up to an inch per hour…WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Lake effect? Syracuse missed out on the band I got in November...total for the year there is below 14 inches. Those lakes have done almost nothing for us this winter...or last...It's just been a garbage trio of winters. Lake effect only works when we actually have cold air...and SOME moisture. Yeah, without cold air the lakes are useless except in winter when I watch those beautiful sunsets over the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: His forecast was for the band in Thursday at 2pm over southern Erie and Northern Chautauqua…remarkably different from the NWS forecast…and the icing on it he said the band at its heaviest MIGHT reach up to an inch per hour…WTF Its too early for these calls the high res isn't even in range yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I'm feeling meltdowns coming lol Gonna need to make that LES thread soon haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Can see streamers forming over st Lawrence river into lake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I'm feeling meltdowns coming lol Gonna need to make that LES thread soon haha This is my "baseline melting".... just general frustration. It won't be the level of others from other subforums who start personal attacks on other posters because of their snow weenie frustrations... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'm feeling meltdowns coming lol Gonna need to make that LES thread soon haha I was going to wait for watches because its still too uncertain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: His forecast was for the band in Thursday at 2pm over southern Erie and Northern Chautauqua…remarkably different from the NWS forecast…and the icing on it he said the band at its heaviest MIGHT reach up to an inch per hour…WTF You still haven't learned broadcast meteorologists are terrible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Mid atlantic got smoked, highest totals over 15" 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 This is obviously before the 12z runs.. Kbgm The Canadian and Euro are more in step with each other, turning the trough negative over the Ohio River Valley and developing a low off the coast of New Jersey, while the GFS begins to tilt off the Mid- Atlantic coast and does not get the low going until far off the coast. This far out, deterministic guidance can be a bit wishy washy and big run to run changes are not out of the question. The consistency over the last few runs is good but the fact the major models are not close yet introduces uncertainty in the forecast of this storm. Looking at ensemble guidance for this storm, the Euro and Canadian continue to show signals for a shovelable amount of snow Friday into Saturday. GFS ensembles break from the deterministic guidance and show signals for snow accumulations across the area during the same period. These ensemble signals give more confidence in a solution closer to the Euro and Canadian and thus the forecast during this period reflects that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This is obviously before the 12z runs.. Kbgm Looking at ensemble guidance for this storm, the Euro and Canadian continue to show signals for a shovelable amount of snow Friday into Saturday. GFS ensembles break from the deterministic guidance and show signals for snow accumulations across the area during the same period. These ensemble signals give more confidence in a solution closer to the Euro and Canadian and thus the forecast during this period reflects that. I suppose "shoveable" could be a half inch, right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 FWIW… BTV locks in the band just to the south of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You still haven't learned broadcast meteorologists are terrible? Yes I have, since DP left full time the others fir the most part are hacks…I guess I just keep thinking it’ll change…nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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