tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Those kuchera maps are meh. They are heavily based on temperatures aloft. While that does matter, you also need solid omega within the dgz. That’s where it really produces. I’ve seen piss poor snow totals with temps in upper teens due to lack of lift with heavy riming 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 to 6 is my call. Buffalo to rochester. Syracuse gets 0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: 3 to 6 is my call. Buffalo to rochester. Syracuse gets 0 I agree. Also it is snowing in Hamilton Ontario already. Environment Canada is calling for up to 1 to 2 Cm per hour at times over night. 5-10cm (roughly 2-5”) accumulation but higher amounts in enhanced areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Iowa and Illinois posters are reporting really good dendrites with 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. Mentioning they are overachieving in many areas. Chicago's not doing so well...seems a bit drier on the northwest side. So perhaps those better ratios and rates translate over to Western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Some reason models have been showing a relative snow hole around Chicago. More west and more east. Dry air i guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 It looks like that's just the way banding has set up out there. Southern Wisconsin is getting some good snowfall. Chicago is actually supposed to get some lake enhancement. It looks like that same good banding is headed right for Western New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Hour 222 but been showing up alot on gfs recently. Wnw flow multilake connection. Best set up for roc and syr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I agree. Also it is snowing in Hamilton Ontario already. Environment Canada is calling for up to 1 to 2 Cm per hour at times over night. 5-10cm (roughly 2-5”) accumulation but higher amounts in enhanced areas. Its more ice pellets here in the Hamilton area with a temperature at my house of 34F. Should be all snow around 7-9pm. Environment Canada is saying 2-5" and The weather Network (weather channel pretty much) is calling for 4-6" here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Starting to get a little concerned with how stubborn the temps are…. If we aren’t changing to snow by 10 I think we’ll be headed towards the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Patients dave. Changes to snow before hitting 32. Most models have a change over 10 pm to 12am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 18z gfs going to be some eye candy with the kutchie maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 GFS absolutely wrecks VA, MD, and DE. Can't get a plowable snow here...yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Has a max of 50 over northern Cayuga. Vort has you at 32 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 down to 35 already, precip about an hour or so away. Waiting on temps a loft to cool. Surface should be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Tughill is finally going to get his chance to see what a real Upstate winter is like. Just a perfect extended outlook for winter lovers, especially for those that like snow depth. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Tughill is finally going to get his chance to see what a real Upstate winter is like. Just a perfect extended outlook for winter lovers. I sure hope so! I honestly haven't paid any attention to the long range the past couple of days. Zippo. Things are so uncertain within a day or two, I am trying not to look too far ahead. Here's to hoping for some real winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Wwa now for 3 to 6 inches for rochester. Rain to snow around 10 11 pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Wwa now for 3 to 6 inches for rochester. Rain to snow around 10 11 pm Same for Niagara Frontier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 29 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS absolutely wrecks VA, MD, and DE. Can't get a plowable snow here...yikes NWS not buying GFS down there...AFDs thinking minimal snowfall for most of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Hour 222 but been showing up alot on gfs recently. Wnw flow multilake connection. Best set up for roc and syr Nice hole for me in Livingston County...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I sure hope so! I honestly haven't paid any attention to the long range the past couple of days. Zippo. Things are so uncertain within a day or two, I am trying not to look too far ahead. Here's to hoping for some real winter! Cold air is pretty easy to see within 2 weeks, its the 3-4+ week stuff that is impossible to predict. Synoptic systems tracks are also very difficult to predict outside of 1-3 days. Lake effect is easily seen well before time. Many events are talked about a full week before in most NWS discussions. If the long range is right lake Erie will be frozen by the first week of February. We better score in the next 3-4 weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Nice hole for me in Livingston Livingston County hast to be the worst county in buffalo forecast area for lake snow. Too far east usually for lake erie and to far south for ontario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Nice hole for me in Livingston County...lol Livingston County...talk about a rough place for an upstate snow lover! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Hey guys, Since I have been up in Cicero when I take the doggie to the backyard and I walk around whether it's rained or not grass seems like mush or quicksand. Is this my imagination or part of the nature of the soil in upper central NY state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Livingston County...talk about a rough place for an upstate snow lover! Plus the deepest part of Genesee Valley. Down sloping 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Hey guys, Since I have been up in Cicero when I take the doggie to the backyard and I walk around whether it's rained or not grass seems like mush or quicksand. Is this my imagination or part of the nature of the soil in upper central NY state? That's what we, outside of NYC, call "grass." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Livingston County...talk about a rough place for an upstate snow Some parts of Livingston County only get 40 inches a year on average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, sferic said: Hey guys, Since I have been up in Cicero when I take the doggie to the backyard and I walk around whether it's rained or not grass seems like mush or quicksand. Is this my imagination or part of the nature of the soil in upper central NY state? Just now, TugHillMatt said: That's what we, outside of NYC, call "grass." The Cicero area has lots of Wetlands. I'm not totally sure what the dominant soil type is there, but I imagine there would be a mixture of clay and loam in there. Normally the ground has frozen some, but not this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Some parts of Livingston County only get 40 inches a year on average Yeah, when I was searching around Upstate NY, I avoided the Dansville to Corning to Elmira area because of their very low snowfall averages. Too far away from the lakes and east coast...and downsloping from the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cold air is pretty easy to see within 2 weeks, its the 3-4+ week stuff that is impossible to predict. Synoptic systems tracks are also very difficult to predict outside of 1-3 days. Lake effect is easily seen well before time. Many events are talked about a full week before in most NWS discussions. If the long range is right lake Erie will be frozen by the first week of February. We better score in the next 3-4 weeks. BW I gotta say seeing Tom Niziol discuss the potential for LEA 5 days out does make my ears perk up. Seeing the GFS being so consistent is absolutely exciting at this point. As you stated LES is a bit easier to spot in a week or less time. This COULD turn a lot of this winter around quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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