rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I find in the past the cold air bleeds in faster than modeled for counties bordering lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 8:10 PM, rochesterdave said: Expand That showing a mix in already in western ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z EPS for end of week system 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 8:10 PM, rochesterdave said: Expand Way different on BUF radar although this looks more legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 8:16 PM, tim123 said: That showing a mix in already in western ny Expand I think that’s wrong. Plain rain and 37 here in Derby. I’m expecting about 1-3” here with more of a mix than in the north towns. I think you could see 3-5” Thinksnow, from you to Rochester and just east of there before amounts really drop off as you head towards TugHillMatt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 8:41 PM, Ericjcrash said: Way different on BUF radar although this looks more legit. Expand Radar beam from King City is higher in the clouds than the Buffalo radar over Lake Erie. That’s why it’s showing more mixing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Anything over 2 inches is a win considering looked like a wash out a couple days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Down to 39 in rochester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:08 PM, tim123 said: Anything over 2 inches is a win considering looked like a wash out a couple days ago Expand It’s a big storm! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:11 PM, rochesterdave said: It’s a big storm! Expand Heavy snow in Chicago and now snowing in Detroit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Rain to dry slot to mix to downsloping to scattered NW wind lake effect snow showers to snow melt 24 hours later = dusting to 1 inch snowfall = Syracuse new snowfall normals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:20 PM, TugHillMatt said: Rain to dry slot to mix to downsloping to scattered NW wind lake effect snow showers to snow melt 24 hours later = dusting to 1 inch snowfall = Syracuse new snowfall normals Expand Not what a new Northern Onondaga County resident wants to hear after finally making it up here ! Whatever the final tally is up here by April it's destined to be more than NYC's Central Park has ever had in a season which was around 76 inches in 1995-1996 I'm not expecting 130" + so anything 75 inches or higher will be more than I have seen in nearly 25 years on Long island/NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Looking at temperature obs across the Western NY, it looks like mid to upper 30s are the coldest at the moment. Mid 30s where rain has started... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On paper this thing looks good. Good track. Lots of moisture. Question is if it can get cold enough. Not much dynamic cooling with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Hopefully we keep draining that cold in from across lake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:35 PM, sferic said: Not what a new Northern Onondaga County resident wants to hear after finally making it up here ! Whatever the final tally is up here by April it's destined to be more than NYC's Central Park has ever had in a season which was around 76 inches in 1995-1996 I'm not expecting 130" + so anything 75 inches or higher will be more than I have seen in nearly 25 years on Long island/NYC Expand Hey, it's just been an awful run for the past several years. Probably the worst patterns for Upstate New York...and even more so for Syracuse. I don't really know what the heck is going on, but it's been like a broken record. I know it's not ALWAYS going to be like this. (At least I hope not). Some of the things I mentioned are legit, they've just been more extreme than usual. But, again, what HASN'T been more extreme than normal?! Mild winters are no good for lake effect towns that get their averages from robust lake effect snow events. You SHOULD expect 130 inches...that's the normal! lol... but coming from NYC, most winters would still seem much better. Even the last two garbage winters at least had a few weeks of decent winter that still outshines NYC's winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:37 PM, rochesterdave said: On paper this thing looks good. Good track. Lots of moisture. Question is if it can get cold enough. Not much dynamic cooling with this one. Expand I wish we could get the SE ridge to cooperate with us this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Think up here qpf will be main issue. Expecting rain start then transition over to snow fairly quickly. down to 38 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gfs been consistent past day or so 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:52 PM, tombo82685 said: looks like 2-4 3-5 into the city now on gfs Expand What city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:52 PM, tim123 said: Gfs been consistent past day or so Expand You gotta a recent RAP for fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:53 PM, rochesterdave said: You gotta a recent RAP for fun? Expand Only goes to hour 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 New rap 21z running now goes to hour 51. Will post when done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Looks better through what is most of this event. But, the Rap does change "rap"idly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On 1/1/2022 at 9:53 PM, tim123 said: What city Expand South Lake Tahoe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The Kuchera maps probably aren't the best option for this system. Perhaps the ratios will be better as the deeper cold moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 The GFS has a long duration SW/WSW LES event. The farther south that storm goes next weekend the longer the LES event last. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 True but Temps and 850 drop alot come tomorrow am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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