BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 December will go down as one of the warmest in recent history for all Upstate recording stations. December Temps BUF: +6.5 ROC: +4.4 WAT: +5.1 SYR: +7.3 BING: +5.7 Buf average Dec. temp: 38.1 Buffalos top 3 Dec temps 42.1 (2015) 38.1 (2021) 37.6 (1923) Buffalo will finish with the 2nd warmest December on record this year and likely the 3rd warmest year on record with last year being #2. Only 2012 was warmer. So in the last 2 years we've had 2 of the top 3 warmest years on record. Snowfall Totals so far: GSB Cities The 2021 - 2022 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Binghamton 14.1 25.9 51.6 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Rochester 14.0 30.5 11.7 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Syracuse 13.7 40.6 14.8 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Buffalo 10.7 34.0 33.8 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Albany 5.5 16.2 27.4 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Lake temperatures are also near record highs We will finally see the Pacific relax with the record breaking -PNA in the next few weeks and the CFS look very cold with a near perfect pattern for the lakes for January. This will allow the cold air that was locked away in the Northwest and SW canada to finally be delivered eastward. With January being the coldest month of the year these departures will be impressive. There are several opportunties for snowfall the next 10 days and the long range outlook looks quite good for winter lovers The first event will start tonight into tomorrow morning with a general 2-4" followed by some lake effect snow for those along the Lake Ontario shoreline There will be a brief warmup Tues/Weds and then a arctic front will go through in the middle of the week. This will lead to a brief window of LES for both lakes. The Canadian would lead to lake snow warnings for East/northeast of the lakes with a very impressive event on Thursday/Friday, the other models show LES but not nearly as strong Following this we have to watch a window next weekend for a potent synoptic event. The OP Euro is the farthest SE with the GEM/GFS farther NW Looking even further out here are the EPS Ensembles for next 2-3 weeks Good luck to all and may the wind direction forever be in your favor. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Many expect it to get warmer the last 2 weeks of January but so far the long range GEFS and GPS don't show that. It continues the great pattern. The best part of that ENS suite is the PV on our side of the globe. Taking everything in I expect all of us to have a below average temp January and above average snowfall. It even has "epic" potential IF the models are correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 A few of the 10 day snowfall total maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Weak AF thread title. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year all! Great write up @BuffaloWeather!! Thinking tonight is the turning point for us! As a Miami Dolphins fan, I see this winter like our season…. P.S. Thanks for beating the Pats last week. Our turn next week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Everyone hop on board the latest RAP! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6z NBM 6z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Great first post to start the New Year and break us out of our funk. Happy New Year to all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 hours ago, Syrmax said: Weak AF thread title. Lol...I didn't even look at the thread title until seeing your comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 @BuffaloWeatherGreat discussion and overview! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I am liking the look of the 12Z HRRR. Showing that flatter look I've been talking about. I am a bit concerned about the downsloping off the Tug that many models are showing. That northeast wind can be a problem, especially for Oswego county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I am liking the look of the 12Z HRRR. Showing that flatter look I've been talking about. I am a bit concerned about the downsloping off the Tug that many models are showing. That northeast wind can be a problem, especially for Oswego county. Here, I’ll post it for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Here, I’ll post it for you. Thanks, although I am not sure why you posted it? I said I liked the look of it. I saw it already. Maybe to show it's not showing downsloping? Many of the models are suggesting it, so it's just something to possibly be prepared for in a very localized area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Not to be dick but Reed looks like an ad for rest stop Grinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Rap isn't all that far from gfs in regard to snow totals. And reed does look like a grinder truck stop ad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Thanks, although I am not sure why you posted it? I said I liked the look of it. I saw it already. Maybe to show it's not showing downsloping? Many of the models are suggesting it, so it's just something to possibly be prepared for in a very localized area. It was completely passive aggressive. It’s my New Years resolution- just puke up all the nasty shit I think. No but seriously, mention a map- post a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Wow. How’d I miss the 6z GFS? Pretty bullish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Really hoping this one over performs! Can I get an amen? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It was completely passive aggressive. It’s my New Years resolution- just puke up all the nasty shit I think. No but seriously, mention a map- post a map. I almost always post the maps I discuss, but don't want to clog the sub with even more maps. So I am intentionally NOT posting every map I mention. Don't make that your New Years Resolution. We already have enough people puking up nasty things all over social media. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I thought the NAM run looked good but totals were reduced (and moved south). A minor snowfall in coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Hwrfs look great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hwrfs look great. I think the NWS is putting too much weight in icing occurring. Every one of these models is 4+” of accumulation through the 90 corridor north. One of two things is happening, IMHO is that the NWS is afraid to buy in to the lake enhancement or the system itself…either way looking upstream I’m not seeing much in the way of icing or mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Also the system looks very impressive at this moment. It just really started to take shape this morning, and it’s looks to be strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: @BuffaloWeatherGreat discussion and overview! Baaahhhhh humbug! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think the NWS is putting too much weight in icing occurring. Every one of these models is 4+” of accumulation through the 90 corridor north. One of two things is happening, IMHO is that the NWS is afraid to buy in to the lake enhancement or the system itself…either way looking upstream I’m not seeing much in the way of icing or mixing. I agree. I don't blame them for being extra cautious. Many of the events this year have underperformed. I was a bit amused with BGM's Winter Weather Advisory for their CNY counties...but it gives a head's up to holiday travelers and can be adjusted up or down pretty easily. My little area actually has the best chance of their entire area to have the most wintry outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I think nws is sleeping and being lazy to be honest. Not a huge storm at all but reading there write up is just horrible. Still saying 1 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Icon jumped back on board. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: I think nws is sleeping and being lazy to be honest. Not a huge storm at all but reading there write up is just horrible. Still saying 1 to 3 inches. That’s not even the laziest! The new girl on the local WIVB station here is calling for 1-2” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geez150 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Everyone hop on board the latest RAP! Pretty sure everyone on here would be signing in blood for this to be true. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Geez150 said: Pretty sure everyone on here would be signing in blood for this to be true. Certainly would be a nice way to get closer to normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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