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January Banter 2022


George BM
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I have placed this in Banter because it may or may not obtain. This is an excerpt from Larry Cosgrove's weather newsletter.

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/02shLHstC-8

It's engrossing and compulsive reading. If it IS realized...

Everyone had better stock up on whatever it is you use to stay awake for days and days because we are going to be chasing model runs very soon! This may develop into a STORM MODE magnitude blizzard.

The end phase of the current La Nina episode is beginning, the circumpolar vortex continues to show a "rubber band" elasticity, and the subtropical jet stream appears to be energizing. These events, and the recent expansion of the snow field in Russia and North America are solid indicators of a colder, and likely stormier, turn in weather over the lower 48 states. I will caution you that a more wintry period probably will not last all that long (3 to 4 weeks), since all model guidance for February in the lower 48 states is warmer (retreat of Arctic air into Canada).
 
A key feature is the possibility of a "triple phase" weather event affecting the eastern third of the continent in the 11-15 day time frame. With blocking signatures in the -EPO (Alaska), -AO (Northwest Territories and Nunavut AR), and -NAO (Greenland) positions, energy coming across the Pacific Northwest should be forced into the south central U.S., coming into contact with the aforementioned southern branch nearing Baja California. A cAk vortex nearing James Bay may be pushed into Ontario and Michigan, leaving open the possibility of contact with any disturbance moving along the Gulf Coast and then up and just off of the Atlantic shoreline. The ensemble platforms have hinted at this possibility for about ten days now (that is a long time in terms of numerical model profiling), so I have decent confidence that something akin to a major winter storm will occur in the longer term. The chief area of interest would be from the Great Lakes region into the Mid-South, Appalachia and the Interstate 95 corridor above Fayetteville NC. Now if you think this areal coverage is too much and too far south, just take a look at the past two episodes involving heavy snowfall.
 
Typically in this type of set-up, the coldest air is found along and to the right of the Rocky Mountains. As long as ridging holds across the western U.S., the greatest chill will occur along and east of a line from Edmonton AB to Laredo TX. A subsidence inversion may develop through the Intermountain Region, in association with +PNA ridging, creating seemingly endless bouts of Tule fog and low-level chilly temperatures.
 
 

 

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14 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not really--it was as close as 4 of the other losses were. Any game could've been won.

Depleted by injuries. Given who they had as backups, they competed pretty well IMO. Lots of mistakes, several questionable coaching calls and a play here and there they needed to make but didn’t make .... could’ve been the winning difference in several games.   Sure, any of those painfully close games could have been one but as they say ... the really good teams seem to find a way to win. Let’s see them at full strength next year!  If healthy, they should be among the top teams.  Certainly among the most exciting. 

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20 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Not sure about the rest of you, but I'm definitely seeing the back edge of this upcoming promising period and feeling the need to deb everyone up. Yeah!

I've been waiting for the collapse.  We've been riding too high the last several days.

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Since skiing seems to be one thing to keep LR panic at bay, and there's a lot of knowledgable folks on here, I wanted to ask--does anyone have any tips/recommendations for adults learning to ski? I've always wanted to learn but am worried that it's something you have to learn as a kid (which in Houston...was not gonna happen). Thanks!

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2 hours ago, WinterFire said:

Since skiing seems to be one thing to keep LR panic at bay, and there's a lot of knowledgable folks on here, I wanted to ask--does anyone have any tips/recommendations for adults learning to ski? I've always wanted to learn but am worried that it's something you have to learn as a kid (which in Houston...was not gonna happen). Thanks!

Rent a pair of 190’s, go to the top of the mountain, point yours skis straight downhill and go. If you survive to the bottom, congrats, you’re now a skier.

PS - don’t do any of that lol

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On 1/5/2022 at 5:02 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

One of our snow shovels has been missing since yesterday morning- it appears someone must have stolen it overnight that night when I left it out in the front yard. People are assholes.

Would you believe this actually turned up, buried in the last snow pile left on my property. Idk how it wound up there, but whatever, I got it back!

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2 hours ago, WinterFire said:

Since skiing seems to be one thing to keep LR panic at bay, and there's a lot of knowledgable folks on here, I wanted to ask--does anyone have any tips/recommendations for adults learning to ski? I've always wanted to learn but am worried that it's something you have to learn as a kid (which in Houston...was not gonna happen). Thanks!

I'd say the best way is to book an adult beginner lesson at Liberty. They'll start you with the basics and the easier slopes. Then after a few lessons you should be able to handle the green runs.

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I'd say the best way is to book an adult beginner lesson at Liberty. They'll start you with the basics and the easier slopes. Then after a few lessons you should be able to handle the green runs.

So much this!

Skiing is not to be taken lightly.  It's not like picking up a guitar and trying it out.  And if your bindings aren't set right you can wind up with painful, lasting injuries!

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I'd say the best way is to book an adult beginner lesson at Liberty. They'll start you with the basics and the easier slopes. Then after a few lessons you should be able to handle the green runs.

+1 for a lesson - I did a lesson at Wisp a few years ago and it was definitely helpful.  I also think skiing is kind of like golf….you need to keep at it.

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5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I'd say the best way is to book an adult beginner lesson at Liberty. They'll start you with the basics and the easier slopes. Then after a few lessons you should be able to handle the green runs.

Agree - if you have the resources take lessons.  

Suggest taking a group class first.  You can learn a lot from watching the others and learning what to do, and what to not do too.  

Then, take a private lesson and get an instructor to spend an hour or two with you.  That can really help get you starting on the right foot.  

Mind you...  I've only taken lessons once in my life 

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8 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

So much this!

Skiing is not to be taken lightly.  It's not like picking up a guitar and trying it out.  And if your bindings aren't set right you can wind up with painful, lasting injuries!

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

+1 for a lesson - I did a lesson at Wisp a few years ago and it was definitely helpful.  I also think skiing is kind of like golf….you need to keep at it.

Absolutely, and I should also add that skiing is not something you can learn just by reading about it. It might help a little to learn some tips, but ultimately you have to actually do it to really learn.

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

+1 for a lesson - I did a lesson at Wisp a few years ago and it was definitely helpful.  I also think skiing is kind of like golf….you need to keep at it.

Indeed.  Skiing is one of those things you need to invest a lot of time and money in (gear, travel, etc) before you get proficient enough to really enjoy it.  Then once you do "get there", it's amazing.  Another challenge to learning around here with the minimal vertical and long lift lines is time actually skiing.  You can wait in line for 20 mins for a run that takes a min or two tops.  

You can ski more vertical in one run at a large resort in the Alps than you can in a full weekend of skiing around here.  In the realm of practice makes perfect, time on the slopes is directly proportional to proficiency.     

 

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24 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

Thanks! I would definitely want to start with lessons (good thoughts on group vs private)--is there any resort around here that is "better" for beginners than the others? 

I think Liberty or Roundtop would be ideal. Whitetail is a bit more challenging. Wisp is also a good spot for beginners but it is farther away.

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Anyone try tubing?

The last time I was INSIDE a tube was three large ones lashed together and it rolled down a steep hill.  Surprisingly it didn't end of up in disaster but let's just say I couldn't stand up for a few minutes! :D

Tubing (as a sled) down a hill looks fun.  Summer time (in the mountains) would be alpine coasters but I guess if you're hardcore you could do it in freezing cold.  In my younger days hell yes!

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