January Banter 2022

[Kay]

I haven't been able to track much but what's more disappointing is that I missed the genesis of the angle of the vorts

[Maestrobjwa]

12 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Honestly maybe the best thing for some of you is to miss out on this storm completely as a reality check (not directed at you @mappy). Sorry...

This part here--I can tell ya that will not make it any better...trust me. The more misses between the hits, the more angst there is tracking the next one.

[WxWatcher007]

41 minutes ago, KAOS said:

Where did the snow bus go? Is there no longer a bus? Was it retired? I miss the bus.

Broke down in the Stephens City desert. The torch did the rest.

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This part here--I can tell ya that will not make it any better...trust me. The more misses between the hits, the more angst there is tracking the next one.

It’s a perfect vortex. If folks cash in, they become desperate for more. If folks fail, they’re desperate to cash in. Can’t escape it. 

[KAOS]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Broke down in the Stephens City desert. The torch did the rest.

It’s a perfect vortex. If folks cash in, they become desperate for more. If folks fail, they’re desperate to cash in. Can’t escape it. 

This is what happens when you let the bus get destroyed by a train and left to rot in a desert. Certainly the snow gods are not pleased by this photo. Shame on you... you all shall reap what you have sown.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, KAOS said:

This is what happens when you let the bus get destroyed by a train and left to rot in a desert. Certainly the snow gods are not pleased by this photo. Shame on you... you all shall reap what you have sown.

Woah woah woah. The bus may be gone, but the weenies remain. We gotta will this one home. 

[vastateofmind]

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Broke down in the Stephens City desert. The torch did the rest.

It’s a perfect vortex. If folks cash in, they become desperate for more. If folks fail, they’re desperate to cash in. Can’t escape it. 

At least it didn't get Short Pump-ed...or did it?

[yoda]

Now its time for some prayers to move this west just another 50 miles or so after seeing the 06z EURO lol

[nj2va]

We’re gaining almost 2 minutes of sunlight/day - big fan of that.

[HighStakes]

Just now, yoda said:

Now its time for some prayers to move this west just another 50 miles or so after seeing the 06z EURO lol

I'm really good with several inches. Such a delicate set up I wish I could just lock up 4 inches instead of rolling the dice for a bigger event especially for my location. 

[yoda]

Just now, HighStakes said:

I'm really good with several inches. Such a delicate set up I wish I could just lock up 4 inches instead of rolling the dice for a bigger event especially for my location. 

Same... I'd take 2-3".  But the pull for more... more snow... the Dark Side that is.  Resist its pull, I cannot

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Now its time for some prayers to move this west just another 50 miles or so after seeing the 06z EURO lol

The 6z Euro dropped 40” on my parents house in coastal NJ, lol.  That’s pretty crazy.

[vastateofmind]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

From Mount Holly this morning-

Similar to last night, the majority of tonight`s 26.00z guidance had an overall eastward look relative to their more westward 25.12z counterparts. The phasing between the shortwaves generally happened later, with a more positive tilt longwave trough as it approached the Southeast coast. This then results in a further east track of the surface low. Even the EC, which remains on the western edge and still shows a high impact event, was a little more east. And other models such as the GFS and UKMET are even further east and would be quite low impact for our region. But there are still more western solutions on the table, such as the 0z NAM. Upper air changes on most of the models were quite subtle, but as has been discussed, downstream output will be contingent on very minor changes occurring over the next 24 hours. Today`s trends will certainly be important. With all of the shortwave energy at least over land now, sampling will be steadily improving, and "big picture" model solutions should start converging in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Thx for reminding us about the Mt. Holly discussions...I bookmarked them last year upon one of your references. I've learned a lot about "possibilities" from reading their disco, very informative (and typically, measured).

30 minutes ago, H2O said:

I’ll take whatever snow this thing gives us. If none, so be it. If some, great. 
 

All we can do is see how the angle of the vorts goes. 

Preach. After Jan. 3, which was impressive for our corner of the world, I won't whine about another snow whiff this year.

16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’d take this and run.

Wow...congrats, @diatae & @CAPE.

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We’re gaining almost 2 minutes of sunlight/day - big fan of that.

OMG...this makes such a huge difference, especially in mood. I despise the few weeks after the holidays, when all the lights come down. But now we're able to engage in post-work 4-mile dog walks WITHOUT having to rely on the flashlight to finish up!

[mattie g]

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Thx for reminding us about the Mt. Holly discussions...I bookmarked them last year upon one of your references. I've learned a lot about "possibilities" from reading their disco, very informative (and typically, measured).

Preach. After Jan. 3, which was impressive for our corner of the world, I won't whine about another snow whiff this year.

Wow...congrats, @diatae & @CAPE.

OMG...this makes such a huge difference. I despise the few weeks after the holidays, when all the lights come down. But now we're able to engage in post-work 4-mile dog walks WITHOUT having to rely on the flashlight to finish up!

The Euro keeps dragging me in to more (unrealistic) expectations lol. I still think in the end 2-4", with a boom of 6 for my yard is reasonable given the set up. 

Tracking this potential storm has been interesting for me because I first started looking ahead to this window about 2 weeks ago when it started to become clear the MLK storm would be mostly a rainer here. In my mind the overall h5 look then heavily favored offshore tracking lows with the possibility of a coastal scraper that could be a bigger storm. My yard can do pretty well in these scenarios, or get fringed or even nothing. I got 5-6 inches here with the scrapers of both Jan of 17 and 18 (da bomb cyclone), but pretty much equal chances of fringe or getting a moderate event here in my experience with these kinds of storms. With this one I have always felt lower end warning criteria was a reasonable outcome. As things look right now, that is still achievable.

And yes Mount Holly is generally excellent and detailed in their AFDs.

[ovechkin]

I’m not understanding this love affair with the Euro. The more east solutions give us a high advisory end result. The Euro adds what- a couple of inches max and along with it the knowledge that a HECS is giving us the middle finger by 100 miles? I’d rather the 3-4 and be in the same boat as everyone else than add an inch or two with the kick in the nads that will come along with it. And the other thing is this… with DC luck, the coastal taking over sooner could dry slot us quicker from the early stuff and then miss us still and we get totally whiffed.  I’m kicking the FG here and taking the easy 3. This situation is otherwise 4th and goal… from the 20.

[diatae]

1 hour ago, vastateofmind said:

Thx for reminding us about the Mt. Holly discussions...I bookmarked them last year upon one of your references. I've learned a lot about "possibilities" from reading their disco, very informative (and typically, measured).

Preach. After Jan. 3, which was impressive for our corner of the world, I won't whine about another snow whiff this year.

Wow...congrats, @diatae & @CAPE.

OMG...this makes such a huge difference, especially in mood. I despise the few weeks after the holidays, when all the lights come down. But now we're able to engage in post-work 4-mile dog walks WITHOUT having to rely on the flashlight to finish up!

Hopes up! 

[Maestrobjwa]

Man we have got to get a legit el niño in here (one that actually works unlike 2018-19). Can't take this mess anymore. I haven't been in a deep snow for 5 years, and DC, S. MD have has had two healthy sliders give them 8-12" in that time period...while my yard has gotten skunked with 4.5" (2019) and 1.5" (Jan 3rd this year) respectively. 

....Snow that covers everything is nice to look at. And last year's light stuff (can't remember whether that was Feb or March) was nice scenery, and I enjoyed it more. It's just...getting that deep snow is a different kind of high. And I'm starving for it because it's been so long since I've seen a foot. Never gone this long without a foot in my brief lifetime--usually 3-4 years in between one-footers, and 6-7 in between two-footers. Maybe next year is year #7 and we get something (I hope). But this has been a mentally draining stretch where things just haven't lined up right.

I had written this winter off at the beginning because it was a nina...then I got sucked back in when I heard we had an stj. But lesson learned--there are two many ns vorts flying around in a nina. Too hard to get anything more than a few inches. I hope we get niño next year--at least then we have a better chance at a Miller A.

[Fozz]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man we have got to get a legit el niño in here (one that actually works unlike 2018-19). Can't take this mess anymore. I haven't been in a deep snow for 5 years, and DC, S. MD have has had two healthy sliders give them 8-12" in that time period...while my yard has gotten skunked with 4.5" (2019) and 1.5" (Jan 3rd this year) respectively. 

....Snow that covers everything is nice to look at. And last year's light stuff (can't remember whether that was Feb or March) was nice scenery, and I enjoyed it more. It's just...getting that deep snow is a different kind of high. And I'm starving for it because it's been so long since I've seen a foot. Never gone this long without a foot in my brief lifetime--usually 3-4 years in between one-footers, and 6-7 in between two-footers. Maybe next year is year #7 and we get something (I hope). But this has been a mentally draining stretch where things just haven't lined up right.

I had written this winter off at the beginning because it was a nina...then I got sucked back in when I heard we had an stj. But lesson learned--there are two many ns vorts flying around in a nina. Too hard to get anything more than a few inches. I hope we get niño next year--at least then we have a better chance at a Miller A.

When there are haves and have-nots within the same subforum, the main problem is not really jealousy – that is just immature and thankfully not so common. The tension comes from the fact that the mood will be very different for those who haven't seen a significant storm in years, as opposed to the ones who've seen many 8"+ storms that the others did not get. So people who otherwise normally have similar climo just won't be on the same page, because of these disparities and close-misses.

Hoping for a 5-7" storm is not at all unreasonable for Baltimore's climo, so the disappointment is understandable. But it's all part of the ups and downs of mid-Atlantic winter climo. Getting fringed is not fun, but it looks to be in the cards yet again for those of us around Baltimore. 

[vastateofmind]

23 minutes ago, Fozz said:

When there are haves and have-nots within the same subforum, the main problem is not really jealousy – that is just immature and thankfully not so common. The tension comes from the fact that the mood will be very different for those who haven't seen a significant storm in years, as opposed to the ones who've seen many 8"+ storms that the others did not get. So people who otherwise normally have similar climo just won't be on the same page, because of these disparities and close-misses.

Hoping for a 5-7" storm is not at all unreasonable for Baltimore's climo, so the disappointment is understandable. But it's all part of the ups and downs of mid-Atlantic winter climo. Getting fringed is not fun, but it looks to be in the cards yet again for those of us around Baltimore. 

Key statement here, and a decade or more ago, I used to get SO pissed at all of the wintertime whiffs AND hearing about all of the cashing-in up north or out west. But then it just hit me one season...it's my climo, baby. I just needed to accept it and move on, and so I did. We simply do NOT get the kind of storm threats in my part of VA (in terms of both strength or amount dropped) east/south of I-95 and the Capital Beltway that folks do up on the northern tier of MD, the Dulles corridor or out in the Shenandoah Valley. We have the occasional anomaly (e.g., Jan. 3, perhaps this coming weekend), but at this stage of life, if it's white, frozen and accumulating, regardless of amount...I'm good.

P.S. -- I always love seeing the big snow photos from your N/W folks, and I've really enjoyed the winter pic thread this season for that reason.

[mattie g]

This storm is so annoying.

Why can't we just keep a positive trend going? It was looking really encouraging yesterday when the two vorts were much better timed/aligned for a couple runs, but things went back to shit again. It's like those suites initialized differently, since those shifts at H5 were apparent across all (almost all?) models, then at 00z the vort alignment went back to looking like it did before.

[H2O]

[Interstate]

I am surprised school systems have not closed Friday or already have plans for early dismissal.  LOL

[Interstate]

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This storm is so annoying.

Why can't we just keep a positive trend going? It was looking really encouraging yesterday when the two vorts were much better timed/aligned for a couple runs, but things went back to shit again. It's like those suites initialized differently, since those shifts at H5 were apparent across all (almost all?) models, then at 00z the vort alignment went back to looking like it did before.

Because we are the Mid Atlantic... It is not supposed to snow here...

 

I have been missed by the West and the South... Why not the East this time?

[WinterFire]

Is there like a fund we can put together to pay Mappy? Or like a plaque or something? The amount of work she did to keep that pbp readable in just the 20 minutes I looked away...

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, WinterFire said:

Is there like a fund we can put together to pay Mappy? Or like a plaque or something? The amount of work she did to keep that pbp readable in just the 20 minutes I looked away...

Yeah it was getting painful...  I am glad I waved the White Flag after the 6z.

[nj2va]

shrug...I liked the GFS.  Lines up with a pretty 2-4" with cold afterwards.  It'd put MBY over climo for the winter.  

[yoda]

Just now, nj2va said:

shrug...I liked the GFS.  Lines up with a pretty 2-4" with cold afterwards.  It'd put MBY over climo for the winter.  

I liked it... wanted more... but I'll take it.  Would put me over climo

[mattie g]

People are acting like children, including the ones who are poking their noses in and commenting/joking in the analysis thread about the "public tête-à-tête."

Seriously...how old are these people?

[nj2va]

Just now, yoda said:

I liked it... wanted more... but I'll take it.  Would put me over climo

Yeah, of course a foot+ would be better but for me, I'm being realistic and not caring what north/south/east/west is getting.  

[mappy]

sorry @psuhoffman I appreciate you trying to help, but I hid that post so we can all move along.