January Banter 2022

[jewell2188]

I commented on DT “first call” and basically said his map won’t even come close to verifying for the majority of the DMV, he of course insults and I told him to reply back tomorrow when he finally realizes that his numbers are way off. The guy literally is a joke. 

[Deer Whisperer]

Imagine if Sunday was our first trackable event of the winter this place would be on fire

[AU74]

https://twitter.com/gunsnrosesgirl3/status/1482266734656733184?s=20

[Steve25]

I can't be the only person in here that takes at least a little joy out of the fact that all the 95 cities are going to fail with this one. Seeing the mountains up to Buffalo get big snows is not anywhere near as painful as a storm skipping us over but then bombing out for Philly, NYC, and Boston. 

[CAPE]

I have been out on this event for awhile mostly because I know my climo and the synoptic setup leading in had lots of warts. Areas along the Fall line have (had) a better shot at frozen depending on how the specific details worked out in the short range. Had there been a semblance of a block, that departing ocean low would not have accelerated through the Maritimes and would have become a quasi-stationary 50-50 low, placing HP further west and locking cold air in place longer. The blocked flow likely would have influenced the behavior of the upstream shortwaves in the NS and thus the ultimate track of the storm. As it stands the Arctic air we have in place now is fleeting, the NS shortwave phases in and tugs the low NW, and we get an inland track with a strong easterly LL jet between the departing High shifting off the NE coast and the inland tracking closed low. The western highlands are the place to be for this one.

[nw baltimore wx]

Single digits for the Pats at Bills this evening. I wish their game had been scheduled for tomorrow evening instead.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

I can't be the only person in here that takes at least a little joy out of the fact that all the 95 cities are going to fail with this one. Seeing the mountains up to Buffalo get big snows is not anywhere near as painful as a storm skipping us over but then bombing out for Philly, NYC, and Boston. 

So you’re saying misery loves company?

I have to agree.

[Fozz]

12 hours ago, Jebman said:

Absurd snowfall? Hit the Sierras. You might not be able to leave lmao kinda like the Donner Party

I was at Jay Peak last March during a snowstorm. I can share the pics in the picture thread if you’d like.

[SnowenOutThere]

10 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I was at Jay Peak last March during a snowstorm. I can share the pics in the picture thread if you’d like.

I think we would all like that

[George BM]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Man that mountain torque must have triggered a latex heat release or something...can we get a quick volcanic eruption before Sunday to keep the cold locked in? Paging HM paging HM!

[09-10 analogy]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Jessica rules.

[Mrs.J]

Ok I am just going to come clean. I am the one responsible for the shift on this system.

I have personal reasons as you all know. I hope all the ‘s don’t blackball me here. 

Here is an offering of one of my homemade dinners to make up for it. 
 

[Mrs.J]

5 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

friends in Auckland said they heard the shock wave.

So just went to check out the story. Tsunami advisories along the entire West coast of US up to Alaska. Mr. J and the older Miss J are in Seattle this morning. 

[mappy]

This place sucks sometimes. So many debs who can’t find a way to just enjoy snow falling. Sucks the fun out of it all. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

some people need professional help, not an echo chamber.

I think it depends on how you approach it. If ya deal with it more from the "why" as opposed to just shouting out disappoints...ya might get somewhere. Kinda like how there are support groups for various things (including various mental health struggles)struggled. While not a cure-all, it can be therapeutic. Folks could have coping mechanisms and such...It may sound like I'm getting too deep--but only because I think it runs deeper than folks who above dealing with it (you're blessed) realize.

[Fozz]

It's ok to be disappointed. But you can't let it ruin your day. The solution is to shake it off and move on.

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, mappy said:

This place sucks sometimes. So many debs who can’t find a way to just enjoy snow falling. Sucks the fun out of it all. 

All goes back to that wanting vs needing...I'm telling ya! I think Bob's post the other day about the mental state of this place was spot-on! Lol If ya don't go through it ya may not get it, but it's there nonetheless!

I think it comes from a warped perspective, where snow becomes this huge thing that basically overtakes everything and becomes an unhealthy determinant of joy/happiness...how it happens? Who knows...But the key is in how ya deal with it.

And unfortunately...many here ain't doing that well and it ruins it for others. I get why the deb posts are what they are...nowhere else to go with all the angst, and not having a healthier outlet of release (something that can be worked on).

[RDM]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to make sure anyone interested in meteorology and wants to follow along with storms now and of the future; the upper level evolution is the driver the atmosphere. What happens up top will reflect what happens below it. Once you understand the dynamics of the levels 700mb and up, you can be a better forecaster. Cold and warm air will always have the ability to be washed out by an evolving surface and low-mid level pattern. This storm is no different. 

Sampling is a smaller issue at range than it ever has been due to GOES 16/17 and the countless reconnaissance we have delivered over the course of the past 10-15 years. Yes, some minor shifts that could play major components to a pattern evo can occur when a specific feature is sampled over land, but the discourse of, "Changing to tunes of 100s of miles" is ancient history. Overall, this has been a pretty well documented storm with minor adjustments here and there, but in a setup where every 10 miles counts and timing is everything, they are magnified. 

I didn't post last night for two reasons:

1) I was tired and my wife was finally off. I wanted to spend some time with her and we watched some of our favorite shows. It was a wonderful evening.

2) I wanted to see if models held serve on what the hi-res guidance has been insinuating recently, and it looks like they are. This will lead to a forecast shift myself, which I'll have today. 

For those interested in meteorology, I will preface by saying this will be a sight to watch unfold. Result you are looking for may be damned, but take it from someone only getting more wind and absolutely no precip from 2000 miles away; enjoy the meteorology and learn, or I would find something to do on Sunday evening that will take your mind off it all. Ice will be coming, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Pattern is still loaded in the long range. We are okay for now. 

Enjoy your Saturday!! Life is too short to worry about what Mother Nature is gonna do.

"We'll weather the weather, whatever the weather, whether we like it or not!" 

One of the best posts ever.  Thank you for keeping things real and in perspective; and for all you do to contribute to our forum and the science we all worship.  

I had grand plans in the late 70's to become a pro-Met.  For various reasons, including an overnight stint with the NWS at Dayton, OH airport, I shifted gears and became an engineer.  Some similarities in fluid dynamics, heat transfer etc.  However, I've often wondered how things would have gone if I'd gone the Met route via Case Western or Penn State (that was my original track).  

None the less, engineering has been good to me.  Been able to live a lot overseas and experience some of the most stark/extreme examples of weather that Mother Nature can muster.  From 3 meter snows in the Alps, to 20+ meter snow depth in the Japanese Alps, to extreme heat in India, monsoons in India and Thailand.  It's been a great ride.  

Your enthusiasm for the science and plain ole English way of outlining the variables at play has clearly generated a respectable following here on the forum.  It's great when you and the other red taggers and more experienced hobbyists engage and exchange concepts.  From this one humble former wannabe, thank you for the ongoing education.  I've been a largely quiet follower here since day one and on EasterWX before and other forums since the mid 90's.  It's always a pleasure to read more, post less and learn from the pros.  Sincerely.  

 

[WhiteoutMD]

OK the satellite imagery from that eruption amazing really amazing!

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, RDM said:

One of the best posts ever.  Thank you for keeping things real and in perspective; and for all you do to contribute to our forum and the science we all worship.  

I had grand plans in the late 70's to become a pro-Met.  For various reasons, including an overnight stint with the NWS at Dayton, OH airport, I shifted gears and became an engineer.  Some similarities in fluid dynamics, heat transfer etc.  However, I've often wondered how things would have gone if I'd gone the Met route via Case Western or Penn State (that was my original track).  

None the less, engineering has been good to me.  Been able to live a lot overseas and experience some of the most stark/extreme examples of weather that Mother Nature can muster.  From 3 meter snows in the Alps, to 20+ meter snow depth in the Japanese Alps, to extreme heat in India, monsoons in India and Thailand.  It's been a great ride.  

Your enthusiasm for the science and plain ole English way of outlining the variables at play has clearly generated a respectable following here on the forum.  It's great when you and the other red taggers and more experienced hobbyists engage and exchange concepts.  From this one humble former wannabe, thank you for the ongoing education.  I've been a largely quiet follower here since day one and on EasterWX before and other forums since the mid 90's.  It's always a pleasure to read more, post less and learn from the pros.  Sincerely.  

 

Thank you for the kind words. I thank everyone who appreciates the time I spend on here trying to instill some knowledge of meteorology, and some wit to kind of bring in my personality 

I love this forum despite the fact some people can drive me crazy, but that is what the ignore feature is for! I used to be a mega weenie and lived/died by every model. But you know, life is short and weather will always be here. I have reaped the benefit of seeing some incredible weather over the 31 years of my life, and there will be a lot more coming. I take what comes at me and make it my own. If something looks like crap, I'll close the blinds when it occurs, but every moment I get to watch snow fall, even if it gets torched or washed away, I will do it. It makes me happy and I cherish every moment it happens. Some people have this aura when it comes to severe weather, but I get it through the formation and precipitation of ice crystals. 

Been through a lot in my last 6 years and I did some reflecting in the recent years, and I have made my own path. Hopefully the next journey leads me back to the land I grew up. Life chapters are interesting. Some are long. Some are short, but it's still life. Take it as it comes and make your own destiny. Only you control it  

Take care sir!

[Maestrobjwa]

@MillvilleWx I can't believe you are my age (only older by 7 months) yet have that wisdom and perspective on this. Seeing you and @Fozz I've clearly missed the mark big time). Glad you got to the point where ya did--thanks for all your excellent posts!

[Stormfly]

Wouldn't it be grand if these models and current forecast busted big time?

That is, tides change, the swing goes the other way and we get a blockbuster snowstorm?

I know, wishful thinking, but a funny  thought nonetheless!

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

This place sucks sometimes. So many debs who can’t find a way to just enjoy snow falling. Sucks the fun out of it all. 

I'm going to enjoy wind driven rain falling. Have not seen that in quite a while.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

So we know Bob Chill, Stormtracker, and Mappy don't much care for sleet.  Since we're doing gallows-type humor in light of how things look for the upcoming event, here's what I envision for times that snow changes to sleet:

@Bob Chill:  What's that pinging sound?  That's it...where are the bunnies (puts on boots)?

@stormtracker:  Bunnies?  Screw that, cute puppies better watch out!

@mappy:  You guys are amateurs.  Bring on the maps with no legends!

[mappy]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'm going to enjoy wind driven rain falling. Have not seen that in quite a while.

My post wasn’t directed to you. You’ve accepted your outcome, as sucky as it is. 

[Rhino16]

Was going to procrastinate and do homework tomorrow, but I think since our power goes out when a squirrel farts, I should do it all today. Hopefully it isn’t out long term if it does go out, because there’s at least one more week of virtual classes.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

My post wasn’t directed to you. You’ve accepted your outcome, as sucky as it is. 

lol I know. Just saying enjoy the weather you get! No other choice. 

[fourseasons]

I'll blame this post on @stormtracker's post in the MLK Storm thread, but am I the only person around here who hasn't seen the movie Titanic?  I had no interest in seeing it when came out and it didn't take long to flesh out the ship-is-going-to-sink ending with she's engaged, she cheats, nudity is involved, loverboy drowns, her heart goes on.  Oh, and Celine Dion was on the radio singing about it every hour for months on end.

[Rhino16]

Just now, fourseasons said:

I'll blame this post on @stormtracker's post in the MLK Storm thread, but am I the only person around here who hasn't seen the movie Titanic?  I had no interest in seeing it when came out and it didn't take long to flesh out the ship-is-going-to-sink ending with she's engaged, she cheats, nudity is involved, he drowns, her heart goes on.  Oh, and Celine Dion was on the radio singing about it every hour for months on end.

No, everyone knows how it ends anyway. Maybe they shouldn’t have named it that because it spoils the ending.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, fourseasons said:

I'll blame this post on @stormtracker's post in the MLK Storm thread, but am I the only person around here who hasn't seen the movie Titanic?  I had no interest in seeing it when came out and it didn't take long to flesh out the ship-is-going-to-sink ending with she's engaged, she cheats, nudity is involved, he drowns, her heart goes on.  Oh, and Celine Dion was on the radio singing about it every hour for months on end.

I mean, I had no interest either.  But the person I was with at the time kinda dragged me to the theater and forced me to see it.  It actually wasn't as bad as I feared, but I wouldn't have made a conscious choice to go see it.