January Banter 2022

[nj2va]

We’re in the car heading out to McHenry. The language from the updated WSW is full on pants tent mojo:

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches are most likely, with up to 18 inches possible. Winds
  could gust as high as 45 mph, creating blizzard conditions at
  times.

[vastateofmind]

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We’re in the car heading out to McHenry. The language from the updated WSW is full on pants tent mojo:

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches are most likely, with up to 18 inches possible. Winds
  could gust as high as 45 mph, creating blizzard conditions at
  times.

PLEEEEEEEEZ post pics this weekend!!!   

[CAPE]

Still some decent patches of snow left in the woods here. Should hold with the Arctic air for the next day and a half, then I will "enjoy" the driving rain and wind. Had a great first week of the month and the pattern going forward looks promising.

Meanwhile I am sipping on a 2013 vintage WWS for Friday HH.

[WxUSAF]

Started this evening (while still working, yo @Yeoman!) with a Flying Dog Tropical Bitch.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Started this evening (while still working, yo @Yeoman!) with a Flying Dog Tropical Bitch.  

I have had FD Raging Bitch(very good) but not tried the Tropical.

[nw baltimore wx]

Redemption bourbon neat.

 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have had FD Raging Bitch(very good) but not tried the Tropical.

It's making the last hour of work go easier.  

[CAPE]

Is this really a thing? Maybe a little sliver of hope for a better outcome for those along the Fall Line. East of there this thing is totally dead Jim.

Mount Holly AFD-

A lot of focus remains on the Sunday into Monday system. A deepening low pressure system coming out of the southeastern U.S. will lift NE into New England from late Sunday into Monday. We continue to see relatively good agreement with an inland track (if anything there appears to be a slight shift further west with the latest model runs). Although guidance has been quite consistent on this track the last several runs, my one hesitation is that this turn north is going to be dependent on a second mid level trough (currently over northern Canada) digging southeast over the western Great Lakes by Sunday. This trough timing may be important for the timing of the southern low taking a turn further north. While the models appear to be rather consistent with this feature, it is not yet within the upper air network or the usable range for GOES satellites. Therefore, I still have a bit of uncertainty. All that being said, it is hard to ignore the consistency of guidance on the track thus far, so forecast favors a track with the low generally following the I-95 corridor through our region.

[LP08]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is this really a thing? Maybe a little sliver of hope for a better outcome for those along the Fall Line. East of there this thing is totally dead Jim.

Mount Holly AFD-

A lot of focus remains on the Sunday into Monday system. A deepening low pressure system coming out of the southeastern U.S. will lift NE into New England from late Sunday into Monday. We continue to see relatively good agreement with an inland track (if anything there appears to be a slight shift further west with the latest model runs). Although guidance has been quite consistent on this track the last several runs, my one hesitation is that this turn north is going to be dependent on a second mid level trough (currently over northern Canada) digging southeast over the western Great Lakes by Sunday. This trough timing may be important for the timing of the southern low taking a turn further north. While the models appear to be rather consistent with this feature, it is not yet within the upper air network or the usable range for GOES satellites. Therefore, I still have a bit of uncertainty. All that being said, it is hard to ignore the consistency of guidance on the track thus far, so forecast favors a track with the low generally following the I-95 corridor through our region.

Every time someone mentions “better sampling” a weenie gets their wings.

[LP08]

10 minutes ago, Amped said:

Looks quite different to the trained eye.  Much stronger offshore flow.     That's Probably a 960mb bomb and a Hecs at 276 or maybe just offshore.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Have a swim meet tonight, swimming 100 and 50 free along with the 200 IM relay and 400 Free rely. I’m excited because I love sprint freestyle. Also the second to last high school meet before districts. Hope I go faster than the rain snow line moves north Sunday.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Then there are some people needing legit help.

With so many in this forum dealing with a similar thing it would be good group therapy right here. I've been saying that the Panic Room didn't really accomplish much...but if there were another thread to kinda air out the reasons behind how some of us are...it may help more. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

57 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is this really a thing? Maybe a little sliver of hope for a better outcome for those along the Fall Line. East of there this thing is totally dead Jim.

Mount Holly AFD-

A lot of focus remains on the Sunday into Monday system. A deepening low pressure system coming out of the southeastern U.S. will lift NE into New England from late Sunday into Monday. We continue to see relatively good agreement with an inland track (if anything there appears to be a slight shift further west with the latest model runs). Although guidance has been quite consistent on this track the last several runs, my one hesitation is that this turn north is going to be dependent on a second mid level trough (currently over northern Canada) digging southeast over the western Great Lakes by Sunday. This trough timing may be important for the timing of the southern low taking a turn further north. While the models appear to be rather consistent with this feature, it is not yet within the upper air network or the usable range for GOES satellites. Therefore, I still have a bit of uncertainty. All that being said, it is hard to ignore the consistency of guidance on the track thus far, so forecast favors a track with the low generally following the I-95 corridor through our region.

That’s what I posted about last night. Even now that piece is about 300 miles off the coast of BC. Even more interesting to me is the piece that kicks it south is up over the NW passage. These are huge parts of this puzzle.

[dtk]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Is this really a thing? Maybe a little sliver of hope for a better outcome for those along the Fall Line. East of there this thing is totally dead Jim.

Mount Holly AFD-

A lot of focus remains on the Sunday into Monday system. A deepening low pressure system coming out of the southeastern U.S. will lift NE into New England from late Sunday into Monday. We continue to see relatively good agreement with an inland track (if anything there appears to be a slight shift further west with the latest model runs). Although guidance has been quite consistent on this track the last several runs, my one hesitation is that this turn north is going to be dependent on a second mid level trough (currently over northern Canada) digging southeast over the western Great Lakes by Sunday. This trough timing may be important for the timing of the southern low taking a turn further north. While the models appear to be rather consistent with this feature, it is not yet within the upper air network or the usable range for GOES satellites. Therefore, I still have a bit of uncertainty. All that being said, it is hard to ignore the consistency of guidance on the track thus far, so forecast favors a track with the low generally following the I-95 corridor through our region.

No. 

[NorthArlington101]

Charlottesville: maybe 6” of snow, some ice, less rain, back at college a few days early

Arlington: maybe 3” (okay 1” probably) of snow, maybe some ice, rain, maybe a Monday snow shower, home cooked meals

Tough call.

[gymengineer]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Charlottesville: maybe 6” of snow, some ice, less rain, back at college a few days early

Arlington: maybe 3” (okay 1” probably) of snow, maybe some ice, rain, maybe a Monday snow shower, home cooked meals

Tough call.

You’ve seen enough moderate snowstorms (6-8”) that I don’t know if it’s worth it to travel just for another one. I get you may want to be back early, but home cooked meals also are a luxury you’ll probably miss one day in the future. 

Maybe that would be an interesting poll question- what threshold of snow would it be worth it to travel for?
 

The way I see it, I’ve already experienced five 20”+ snowstorms so far in southeast Montgomery County. So to travel, it would have to be for something extraordinary.  Like if I would only get 5” while somewhere relatively close is getting 45”. 

[NorthArlington101]

You’ve seen enough moderate snowstorms (6-8”) that I don’t know if it’s worth it to travel just for another one. I get you may want to be back early, but home cooked meals also are a luxury you’ll probably miss one day in the future. 

Maybe that would be an interesting poll question- what threshold of snow would it be worth it to travel for?
 
The way I see it, I’ve already experienced five 20”+ snowstorms so far in southeast Montgomery County. So to travel, it would have to be for something extraordinary.  Like if I would only get 5” while somewhere relatively close is getting 45”. 

that’s where I lean too - the difference between 6” and 2” doesn’t get me on the road in the morning. 2” vs. 10”, however…

[snowfan]

3 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

You’ve seen enough moderate snowstorms (6-8”) that I don’t know if it’s worth it to travel just for another one. I get you may want to be back early, but home cooked meals also are a luxury you’ll probably miss one day in the future. 

Maybe that would be an interesting poll question- what threshold of snow would it be worth it to travel for?
 

The way I see it, I’ve already experienced five 20”+ snowstorms so far in southeast Montgomery County. So to travel, it would have to be for something extraordinary.  Like if I would only get 5” while somewhere relatively close is getting 45”. 

Having been to breck, Alta, the bird, and the chugach mountains in Alaska I can confirm it’s def worth traveling for to experience absurd snowfall. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

With so many in this forum dealing with a similar thing it would be good group therapy right here. I've been saying that the Panic Room didn't really accomplish much...but if there were another thread to kinda air out the reasons behind how some of us are...it may help more. 

I’m not in that group. I’ll probably be asleep before the gfs runs. I don’t care that much. This is just a way to pass time.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

that’s where I lean too - the difference between 6” and 2” doesn’t get me on the road in the morning. 2” vs. 10”, however…

Take 95 to 64. Best route. Fast

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Having been to breck, Alta, the bird, and the chugach mountains in Alaska I can confirm it’s def worth traveling for to experience absurd snowfall. 

Absurd snowfall? Hit the Sierras. You might not be able to leave lmao kinda like the Donner Party

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Absurd snowfall? Hit the Sierras. You might not be able to leave lmao kinda like the Donner Party

I drove across the Sierras on June 4th in 1997 in a blinding snowfall. Snow on roads was probably at least 6” and snow on the side of the road was at least 10’ deep.

[snowfan]

29 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Absurd snowfall? Hit the Sierras. You might not be able to leave lmao kinda like the Donner Party

All true but parts of the chugach get more than anywhere in the lower 48.

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, nj2va said:

We’re in the car heading out to McHenry. The language from the updated WSW is full on pants tent mojo:

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches are most likely, with up to 18 inches possible. Winds
  could gust as high as 45 mph, creating blizzard conditions at
  times.

Awesome. Good luck and safe travels!

3 hours ago, dtk said:

No. 

I love it when you make an appearance  

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Charlottesville: maybe 6” of snow, some ice, less rain, back at college a few days early

Arlington: maybe 3” (okay 1” probably) of snow, maybe some ice, rain, maybe a Monday snow shower, home cooked meals

Tough call.

If the home cooking is good, it’s an easy call  

If you’re traveling hours for wx, it should be higher end stuff. Just my humble opinion. 

36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m not in that group. I’ll probably be asleep before the gfs runs. I don’t care that much. This is just a way to pass time.

I’m no mental health professional, but if lack of snow is causing legitimate mental health challenges—nobody on here is going to alleviate that effectively.

That’s serious stuff that requires help, and there’s nothing wrong with getting that help—from a professional. 

[H2O]

Other than Randy’s post(which was awesome) the storm thread is now to the point where it’s just better to tune it out. I rather enjoy what I get and avoid the debs. 
 

Whatever falls I’ll be happy with and hoping others get what they want too. 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

Other than Randy’s post(which was awesome) the storm thread is now to the point where it’s just better to tune it out. I rather enjoy what I get and avoid the debs. 
 

Whatever falls I’ll be happy with and hoping others get what they want too. 

Hey, its gallows humor time friend.  This thing fell apart so fast.  Bout to turn on the new SVU episodes I missed, have a drank or two..

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey, its gallows humor time friend.  This thing fell apart so fast.  Bout to turn on the new SVU episodes I missed, have a drank or two..

[WinterWxLuvr]

46 minutes ago, H2O said:

Other than Randy’s post(which was awesome) the storm thread is now to the point where it’s just better to tune it out. I rather enjoy what I get and avoid the debs. 
 

Whatever falls I’ll be happy with and hoping others get what they want too. 

This is where I am

[LP08]

[baltosquid]