January 2022 General Discussion

[Up_north_MI]

4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

A rare sunny day in these parts before a clipper brings 2-3" of snow overnight and in the morning.  Not a big fan of below zero cold (-13 this morning) and lack of significant storms, but this type of pattern will at least keep snow showers in the forecast with an inch or two falling everyday probably.

 

 

 

Looks pretty good up your way snow depth wise Bo. We booked a vrbo place last night in Big Bay on lake Independence for the first weekend in March, hopefully the snow is at its deepest while we’re up there. We’re heading to the Keweenaw next week for a few days and heading to Grand Marais, actually Deer Park, in late February and Paradise the second weekend in March. Hopefully going to ride to Macinac Island next month sometime once the ice is safe enough. The snow in the lower hasn’t been very good at all this season, been plenty cold just really dry. 

[weatherbo]

1 hour ago, Up_north_MI said:

Looks pretty good up your way snow depth wise Bo. We booked a vrbo place last night in Big Bay on lake Independence for the first weekend in March, hopefully the snow is at its deepest while we’re up there. We’re heading to the Keweenaw next week for a few days and heading to Grand Marais, actually Deer Park, in late February and Paradise the second weekend in March. Hopefully going to ride to Macinac Island next month sometime once the ice is safe enough. The snow in the lower hasn’t been very good at all this season, been plenty cold just really dry. 

Was down in Big Bay getting mail yesterday and there was a dense foot or so of wind driven snow on the ground.  Hills south and west and out to my area have spots of 30" plus.  Trails I crossed while driving looked in great shape.  Hopefully things will stay good into March.... usually do.

[mimillman]

56 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

Looks pretty good up your way snow depth wise Bo. We booked a vrbo place last night in Big Bay on lake Independence for the first weekend in March, hopefully the snow is at its deepest while we’re up there. We’re heading to the Keweenaw next week for a few days and heading to Grand Marais, actually Deer Park, in late February and Paradise the second weekend in March. Hopefully going to ride to Macinac Island next month sometime once the ice is safe enough. The snow in the lower hasn’t been very good at all this season, been plenty cold just really dry. 

Headed to Munising myself first weekend in March to hit the trails. Looks like conditions will certainly be better than last year. 

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Looks pretty good up your way snow depth wise Bo. We booked a vrbo place last night in Big Bay on lake Independence for the first weekend in March, hopefully the snow is at its deepest while we’re up there. We’re heading to the Keweenaw next week for a few days and heading to Grand Marais, actually Deer Park, in late February and Paradise the second weekend in March. Hopefully going to ride to Macinac Island next month sometime once the ice is safe enough. The snow in the lower hasn’t been very good at all this season, been plenty cold just really dry. 

 

10 hours ago, mimillman said:

Headed to Munising myself first weekend in March to hit the trails. Looks like conditions will certainly be better than last year. 

I booked a cabin on Vrbo in Au Train, not far at all from Munising, Feb 21-25.  We all have the same idea lol. Best, deepest snow is always late Winter.

[Up_north_MI]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 

I booked a cabin on Vrbo in Au Train, not far at all from Munising, Feb 21-25.  We all have the same idea lol. Best, deepest snow is always late Winter.

For sure Josh, only difference is we want it deep so we can head off in the woods and get stuck in it, you want it deep for the photos I’m assuming. 

[michsnowfreak]

38 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

For sure Josh, only difference is we want it deep so we can head off in the woods and get stuck in it, you want it deep for the photos I’m assuming. 

Oh I love to head into the woods and hike. I want to snowmobile too.

[Hoosier]

Looks like there could be another shot of some lake effect somewhere around the southern tip of Lake Michigan around the end of the week.

[weatherbo]

Another cold day with quite a bit of sunshine.  Temp reached a whopping 9 degrees- down to 1.

[Brian D]

Highs today 0/5 with -20's tonight. Wind chill adv/warn out for a large area tonight into the morning. 0/-5 highs tomorrow.

[madwx]

Tuesday night looks to be the coldest night of the season here,  point has -17 right now.   Wednesday mornings record was -23 set back in 2019 and looks just out of reach

[Hoosier]

ORD is sitting at 12.5" of snow so far this winter.  There likely won't be much more snow at the ob site for the rest of this month, so heading into February sub 15" looks like all but a lock.

There have been 47 years in which Chicago had less than 15" going into February, so it's actually not that uncommon (about once every 3 years).  Here's the bad news.  Out of those 47 years, only 5 ended up being snowier than average by the time the last flake fell.  They are:

1900-01:  40.9"

1925-26:  52.3"

1953-54:  43.2"

1971-72:  46.8"

1979-80:  42.4"

 

The other 42 years ranged from very bad to a bit below average snow by the time it was all said and done.  

There's still plenty of time to rally, but it may be wise to keep expectations in check.

[Hoosier]

^In case anyone is wondering, 2020-21 had 25.4" at the end of January, so it did not make the criteria.

[Spartman]

DAY is at 3.2" for the season. The highest snowfall of the month AND this season is 0.8" on both the 16th and yesterday. Based on trends, heading into February without a 1+" snowfall event is a lock. Last time this happened was 1982-83. Besides 1982-83, the other seasons where not one 1+" snowfall event occurred through the end of January are 1949-50, 1927-28, and 1918-19. The latter is the only one without any 1+" snowfall the entire season.

[Cary67]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

ORD is sitting at 12.5" of snow so far this winter.  There likely won't be much more snow at the ob site for the rest of this month, so heading into February sub 15" looks like all but a lock.

There have been 47 years in which Chicago had less than 15" going into February, so it's actually not that uncommon (about once every 3 years).  Here's the bad news.  Out of those 47 years, only 5 ended up being snowier than average by the time the last flake fell.  They are:

1900-01:  40.9"

1925-26:  52.3"

1953-54:  43.2"

1971-72:  46.8"

1979-80:  42.4"

 

The other 42 years ranged from very bad to a bit below average snow by the time it was all said and done.  

There's still plenty of time to rally, but it may be wise to keep expectations in check.

Voted for 20 -25" at ORD this year. Last year's exceptional end of Jan and February seem unlikely to repeat

[Baum]

39 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Voted for 20 -25" at ORD this year. Last year's exceptional end of Jan and February seem unlikely to repeat

no stat padders in Oct/Nov skewing that 12,5 number. We'll probably stat pad our way to average all the way to May

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Down to -13 here this morning. We’ll struggle to get above zero today.

[madwx]

-7 at the house this morning, -10 at the airport.   Saw as low as -16 on my car thermometer during the drive into work.  

[Brian D]

-20's & -30's here in the north with wind chills in the -40's. Another cold one this morning. Not uncommon to come off a string of cold days to end up with a storm within a few days.

Heard it got down to -31 in Caanan Valley, WV. All time low at that station there. Impressive for that part of the country. It is up high in the mountains there I guess.

[michsnowfreak]

Glistening winter morning. Deep cold and fresh powder....perfect for the dead of winter.

[weatherbo]

-11 here this morning and will likely just crack zero for a high.  Too cold to enjoy doing anything outside.  Took this as I was out feeding the birds and squirrels.  They sure are consuming a lot lately.

Not much snow the past few days either... 2-3" of arctic dust.  I'm ready for a pattern change.

 

[Hoosier]

The lake effect potential on the southern end of Lake Michigan later this week looks like it could be around an 18-24 hour thing, give or take.  A number of parameters look fairly similar to the event from a few days ago (but longer this time) and I don't think it's a question of whether there will be an organized band.  The bigger question is what is happening during those 18-24 hours -- does it meander around a lot or can it spend many of those hours in the same area?  I think several inches would be achievable even with a reasonable amount of meandering, let alone if it stalls out somewhere for a long time.  The ingredients are there (decent delta T and inversion heights, good low level convergence, healthy omega in the dgz, etc) for inch+ per hour type rates so you can get an idea of what could happen if it did manage to stall.

[ILSNOW]

Euro likes ALEK

[A-L-E-K]

event of the winter, hit that double digit pack and roll into spring

[Hoosier]

My mom was at the Dunes this past weekend and said there was ice around the shore.  Looking at satellite imagery, there is a ring of ice around the shore.  It doesn't extend out very far though and our setup will feature a long fetch over open water, so the ice near the shore shouldn't be that much of a factor.

[Hoosier]

From LOT afternoon afd

 

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 157 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

Thursday through Tuesday...

The primary forecast concern during the extended period continues
to focus on the threat of a potentially impactful lake effect
snow event across the southwest shores of Lake Michigan Thursday
night into Friday.

The beginning of the forecast period (on Thursday) will be one of
the mildest days (relatively speaking) until next week. Breezy
southwesterly winds are expected on Thursday in advance of our
next approaching cold front, and this will push a warmer airmass
into our area during the day. Temperatures look to top out into
the low 30s Thursday afternoon, but this will be a short lived
warm-up as the cold front will quickly shift southward across the
area into Thursday evening. While not as cold as the current
arctic airmass, this next push of cold should drive temperatures
back down into the teens Thursday night and Friday.

The main concern with this next push of cold will be the threat
for a potentially significant band of accumulating lake effect
snow Thursday night into Friday. Naturally, forecasting lake
effect snow 60+ hours out carries significant uncertainties, such
as the character of the snow showers (e.g., single band, or multi
banded showers), along with their actual favored placement.
Another complicating, and potentially negating, factor that could
play a role with this event is the potential negative influence of
the building ice cover along the shores. While this period is
currently beyond the time period covered by the HiRes guidance,
signs in the global guidance continue to support a favorable
setup for a convergent band of lake effect snow across southern
Lake Michigan Thursday night into Friday. The magnitude and inland
extent of the accumulating lake effect snow into far northeastern
IL and northwestern IN remains unclear at this time. This will
need to continue to be monitored.

[A-L-E-K]

thankful for these crumbs during lean times

[Baum]

32 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

thankful for these crumbs during lean times

as always. on point.

[fluoronium]

Wind chill advisory and a bare ground. Rough times here in central IL.

[Chambana]

Another 0.1” yesterday that melted within hours. We haven’t had a snowcover last more than 24 hours this winter, and the next week is dry heading into February. 
 

it’s the worst winter I’ve ever seen. 

[Cary67]

21 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Another 0.1” yesterday that melted within hours. We haven’t had a snowcover last more than 24 hours this winter, and the next week is dry heading into February. 
 

it’s the worst winter I’ve ever seen. 

That really is rough. Hope it turns for you in February