January 2022 General Discussion

[Spartman]

Plunged to 1F this morning, the coldest temperature of the season, without any snowpack. January 1997 vibes this month, anyone?

[hawkeye_wx]

We have a modest snow cover, but the lack of deeper, fresh snow helped to keep us only in the low to mid negative teens this morning.

[michsnowfreak]

Woke up a little earlier than normal and couldn't fall back asleep so bundled up and went down to the Detroit river to watch the sunrise. It was absolutely gorgeous, the air temp was about 4ﾟ so there was steam coming over the open water (no matter how cold it is the river won't freeze solid due to ice cutters and current).  As the sun rose the snow sparkled and took on different hues of orange. I really do take for granted that this scene is literally a few blocks from my house every clear morning.

 

[mimillman]

Good thing I waited on booking that flight to Boston…

[Hoosier]

Nice disco from RC regarding lake effect potential.  Not that they need my validation whatsoever, but there's not much for me to disagree with.

 

The main concern is the likelihood of heavy accumulating lake
effect snow and travel impacts Thursday night into Friday morning
for portions of (especially) far northwest Indiana, but possibly
including areas south of downtown Chicago to extreme eastern
Illinois. Concern is there for snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour in
a dominant band setup, though uncertainty on exactly where
convergence axis will set up and residence time of the heavier
snow keeps confidence low enough to refrain from winter storm
watch issuance. A quiet and seasonably cold weekend will follow,
with attention then turning toward a likely active stretch
Tuesday-Wednesday and beyond.

[Thursday Night into Friday Lake Effect Snow Threat]

In the wake of Thursday afternoon`s cold front passage, another
surge of modified Arctic air featuring 850 mb temps of about -17
to -19C will move down the still relatively mild ice free expanse
of Lake Michigan. Ice behavior on far southern portion of the lake
in response to the gusty southerly winds ahead of the front on
Thursday is rather uncertain, but may not play a huge role in the
lake effect snow forecast.

Lake effect parameter (instability, convergence and lift, and
inversion height) wise, the thinking is that conditions will be
favorable for heavy rates maxing out at ~1-2"/hour. Forecast
soundings indicate inversion heights up to 7kft or a bit higher
with potential instability up in the 350-500 j/kg range. Main
limiting factor noted is dry air and subsidence above the lake
effect convective layer, though current thinking is this element
won`t be overly prohibitive. The guidance is in good big picture
agreement in depiction of strong land breeze convergence
developing over the far southern portion of the lake. However, the
mesoscale uncertainty pertains to exactly where the convergent
band sets up initially, then how progressive this band is in
pivoting to the west into early Friday. In addition, as boundary
layer flow tails off late, potential for mesolow development also
may throw a wrench into things, as heaviest snow could slip just
offshore by or even prior to daybreak Friday.

The threat zone for substantial winter impacts ranges from
southeastern Cook County (including Chicago mainly south of
downtown) eastward across northern Lake and Porter Counties. In
the official forecast, we have highest totals of 4-6" over
northern Lake and Porter Counties, though for the reasons listed
above and as is typical with lake effect, confidence is low at
this lead time. Late tomorrow night into early Friday, based off
solid northerly fetch over the lake and instability forecast,
there could be decent inland extent of light to moderate rates to
near or south of the Kankakee River for a time.

Timing of the expected lake effect snow with the usual addition
of rapid changes over short distances making things more hazardous
unfortunately gets into the Friday morning commute. If the
concerning heavy rates do materialize but residence time in any
given spot is short, we may be able to get by with an advisory.
However, considering what occurred this past Sunday morning, ~3-5
hour residence time in this expected set-up could certainly lead
to 6"+ totals over a short time and significant commute impacts to
80/94 corridor into perhaps south half of Chicago. We held off on
Winter Storm Watch issuance for any counties, but will hit the
threat harder in local graphical messaging.

 

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We have a modest snow cover, but the lack of deeper, fresh snow helped to keep us only in the low to mid negative teens this morning.

Yeah was thinking that this morning how if we had deeper fresh cover it'd prob made a run at -20.  Have about 2-3" of crust and about 1/2" of fresher powder on top.

Hit -14 here.

[Chicago Storm]

-7 RFD and -5 ex home Tue morning.

-18 RFD, -12 ex home, -6 ORD and -5 MDW this morning. Lowest in LOT CWA were -26 ARR, -24 DKB and -21 RPJ.

Peak wind chills this morning of -26 RFD, -18 ORD and -17 MDW. Lowest in LOT CWA were -41 ARR, -40 RPJ and -32 DKB.

[kevlon62]

Good thing I waited on booking that flight to Boston…

Save that cash for the bone-in at Foggy's.

Had a great weekend in the fresh snow Munising, Grand Marais, Manistique, Marquette.

Intrigued at a run to Big Bay - maybe in March.

[mimillman]

31 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

Save that cash for the bone-in at Foggy's.

Had a great weekend in the fresh snow Munising, Grand Marais, Manistique, Marquette.

Intrigued at a run to Big Bay - maybe in March.

I’ll probably head west this year from Munising. Went into the park last year and it wasn’t as fun as the 417 or 419! 

[Hoosier]

Well, 00z Euro bullseyes downtown Chicago with the lake effect.

That is probably a lower probability scenario, but can't rule anything out.  If I had to guess, the jackpot is likely to be south of downtown in Cook county or in Lake county IN.  I feel that Porter county is a somewhat lower probability scenario to jackpot as residence time looks shorter there.

[purduewx80]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Well, 00z Euro bullseyes downtown Chicago with the lake effect.

That is probably a lower probability scenario, but can't rule anything out.  If I had to guess, the jackpot is likely to be south of downtown in Cook county or in Lake county IN.  I feel that Porter county is a somewhat lower probability scenario to jackpot as residence time looks shorter there.

If other guidance trends heavier with East Coast snow like it has, it will more likely end up in IL. There’s a pretty strong correlation to this type of Nor’easter and Chicago lake effect because of the more NE vs N flow. 

[TheRegionRat]

I guess I'll drop it in this thread. Lake County Indiana under a Winter Storm Watch due to possible heavy lake effect snow tonight into tomorrow. I try not to get too hyped up when dealing with lake effect. 

[madwx]

22 degrees here this morning.  An impressive 43 degrees warmer than this time yesterday

[OrdIowPitMsp]

There’s a 47 degree difference in 7am temperatures compared to yesterday. 
 

-17 to 30

[WeatherMonger]

Surprise 1/2" of snow here, 2nd best of this season

[Chambana]

1 minute ago, WeatherMonger said:

Surprise 1/2" of snow here, 2nd best of this season

Yep! Surprise mood flakes made for a nice morning, first time this season I’ve got to wake up, sip coffee and watch the snowfall. Nothing more peaceful, in my humble opinion. 
 

Still coming down at a nice steady clip. 

[Brian D]

Temps steadily rose to the mid 20's by 2-3am last night. The front went through, and now its mid teens with a breezy NW wind. One more cold night on tap before a nice reprieve from the bitter stuff.

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, TheRegionRat said:

I guess I'll drop it in this thread. Lake County Indiana under a Winter Storm Watch due to possible heavy lake effect snow tonight into tomorrow. I try not to get too hyped up when dealing with lake effect. 

Yeah, although you look to be in a pretty good spot this time.  I'm a little nervous with how quickly the band starts to hug the immediate shore on some guidance.  Certainly have a bit higher confidence in sig amounts for you than me.

[weatherbo]

Went to bed and it was 5 degrees, woke up to 20 degrees and snow falling along an energized lake enhanced front crossing the area.  Looks like 3-4" of snow has fallen so far. Temp falling through the teens.

 

[fluoronium]

Crazy things happening in east central IL this morning, with multiple locations already reporting the biggest snow of the season. Effingham's accumulation is roughly infinity times larger than their entire season to date snowfall.

[A-L-E-K]

snowfall legend 

[WestMichigan]

21 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

Crazy things happening in east central IL this morning, with multiple locations already reporting the biggest snow of the season. Effingham's accumulation is roughly infinity times larger than their entire season to date snowfall.

Enjoy your taste of winter.

[TheRegionRat]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, although you look to be in a pretty good spot this time.  I'm a little nervous with how quickly the band starts to hug the immediate shore on some guidance.  Certainly have a bit higher confidence in sig amounts for you than me.

Typical lake effect. You're probably no more than 10 miles from as the crow flies.  The west trend on the short range models is pointing towards Chicago now.  Hard to get amped up about a narrow band of lake effect until it happens.  Cautiously optimistic.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

Typical lake effect. You're probably no more than 10 miles from as the crow flies.  The west trend on the short range models is pointing towards Chicago now.  Hard to get amped up about a narrow band of lake effect until it happens.  Cautiously optimistic.

Fwiw, apparently we're discussing this in the short/med range thread now.

[TheRegionRat]

43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fwiw, apparently we're discussing this in the short/med range thread now.

Got. Thanks.  

[Chambana]

Finally cracked the ever elusive 1” snowfall total for the season, but like clockwork temps have warmed above freezing melting this mornings snowfall. Should next weeks system not pan out I’m ready to punt, this has been a disaster. 

[madwx]

unexpectedly popped above freezing during the sunshine after FROPA today.   nice to get some of the ice/snow melted off roads

[cyclone77]

Crazy how acclimated to the cold one gets.  Just stepped out a bit ago and it felt almost nice out there with temps in the mid 20s lol.  A few flurries blowing around under the street lights.  

Will finish January with 12.0" of snow for the season.  Let's see if we can double that or more in Feb.

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Crazy how acclimated to the cold one gets.  Just stepped out a bit ago and it felt almost nice out there with temps in the mid 20s lol.  A few flurries blowing around under the street lights.  

Will finish January with 12.0" of snow for the season.  Let's see if we can double that or more in Feb.

I went to the store last night  And it was the warmest it had been in days. Temperatures spiked to 28 ahead of the Arctic front. When I got back home to unload my groceries I took my coat off just running in-and-out of the house in my sweater lol. Definitely get used to it. But the cold has already returned. 

 

January snowfall is 9.2" in my backyard with 19.1" on the season. DTW is at 8.5" in January and 18.9" season.  January is finishing with snowfall just slightly below average but temperatures in precipitation well below average. It will be a top 10 dry January as we have had nothing but dry snow. And though it will likely miss the top 20 cold list, it will be close.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

-6 for the overnight low. Heat island flexed it’s muscles and kept us warmer then surrounding areas. 
 

This is the 15th below zero low of the season for Minneapolis.