Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/5/2022 at 9:28 PM, CoastalWx said:

I mean how many times have we seen that and it goes from offshore to a local jack....or am 18" storm here to 6"-->rain with a jack near Albany. Maybe this one is different...but I just feel like it comes west.

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Oh we know there's a bias keeping the QPF too close to the low center for one. But even the 12z GFS has a decent banding signal from central LI through BOS despite what it's QPF/snow output shows.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fisher. WBZ map 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some person named Ryan posted this for CT

 

[8611Blizz]

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2022 at 9:59 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Some person named Ryan posted this for CT

 

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That’s on point with what we have. Ryan knows.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:01 PM, 8611Blizz said:

 

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Lol. That’s trash logic, he should know better 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/5/2022 at 9:56 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher. WBZ map 

 

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Looks very reasonable.

[JC-CT]

Even bigger jump on the GEFS fwiw.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/5/2022 at 9:56 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher. WBZ map 

 

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Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/5/2022 at 9:21 PM, wxsniss said:

For fun, from 3kNAM Boston area Friday morning... would be heaviest we've seen since last year:

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A consistent unstable Maul like feature.  Maybe some Tsnow

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

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Maybe "Torrington" is too long for the graphic

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:02 PM, JC-CT said:

Even bigger jump on the GEFS fwiw.

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ya came west a bit

[tunafish]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

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don't forget the booming metropolis of New Marlborough, MA.

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:02 PM, JC-CT said:

Even bigger jump on the GEFS fwiw.

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May give you an idea where this is heading actually.

[8611Blizz]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

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Honestly no idea Shutesbury was a town

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:05 PM, dryslot said:

May give you an idea where this is heading actually.

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Well, it's now in line with the majority of guidance

[wxsniss]

  On 1/5/2022 at 8:49 PM, wxsniss said:

The big holdouts we need to see cave are GFS and 12k NAM, which at the moment are in good agreement with each other but nothing else.

What I see as continuing discordance between strength/placement of that vorticity and SLP on the 18z 12k NAM make me think we'll see trends for better this evening.

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18z GFS showing signs of caving, and even so still could be better given that vorticity strength/placement but it struggles with low placement and conveyor mechanics because of that lead convection.

Consensus is growing, and I still think there is potential for more NW trends.

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:05 PM, JC-CT said:

Well, it's now in line with the majority of guidance

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Just looked at 12z GEFS as a comparison and that was a big move but the ensembles move with the OP usually.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:06 PM, wxsniss said:

18z GFS showing signs of caving, and even so still could be better given that vorticity strength/placement but it struggles with low placement and conveyor mechanics because of that lead convection.

Consensus is growing, and I still think there is potential for more NW trends.

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This map seems fine

[78Blizzard]

I think the TV mets may be underestimating the amounts for the Cape.  In some scenarios they could be the jack.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:05 PM, 8611Blizz said:

Honestly no idea Shutesbury was a town

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It’s is a bigly town.  I wish Hubbardston could be like Shutesbury

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:07 PM, dryslot said:

Just looked at 12z GEFS as a comparison and that was a big move but the ensembles move with the OP usually.

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And it was out to lunch at 12z vs Euro/ggem/rgem/ukie/3km nam

[CoastalWx]

Winds go north. Not sure Pete’s temp logic.

[kdxken]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:03 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

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Same for Massachusetts. Shutesbury? Who even knows where that is?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:09 PM, kdxken said:

Same for Massachusetts. Shutesbury? Who even knows where that is?

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we all do...now

[78Blizzard]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:01 PM, 8611Blizz said:

 

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I think the mid 30's will be when the storm departs.

[dryslot]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:07 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s is a bigly town.  I wish Hubbardston could be like Shutesbury

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One of my accounts actually, And working on a new order for them as we speak today ha ha

[weathafella]

  On 1/5/2022 at 10:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

Winds go north. Not sure Pete’s temp logic.

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He looked at a gfs surface temperature prog which in these situations are always fraught 

[CoastalWx]

So gfs ends early hence warmer high temps. Euro debunks his logic. Lol.

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/5/2022 at 9:56 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher. WBZ map 

 

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About the same as Harveys