Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean how many times have we seen that and it goes from offshore to a local jack....or am 18" storm here to 6"-->rain with a jack near Albany. Maybe this one is different...but I just feel like it comes west.

Oh we know there's a bias keeping the QPF too close to the low center for one. But even the 12z GFS has a decent banding signal from central LI through BOS despite what it's QPF/snow output shows.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fisher. WBZ map 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some person named Ryan posted this for CT

 

[8611Blizz]

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Some person named Ryan posted this for CT

 

That’s on point with what we have. Ryan knows.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

 

Lol. That’s trash logic, he should know better 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher. WBZ map 

 

Looks very reasonable.

[JC-CT]

Even bigger jump on the GEFS fwiw.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher. WBZ map 

 

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

For fun, from 3kNAM Boston area Friday morning... would be heaviest we've seen since last year:

A consistent unstable Maul like feature.  Maybe some Tsnow

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

Maybe "Torrington" is too long for the graphic

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Even bigger jump on the GEFS fwiw.

ya came west a bit

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

don't forget the booming metropolis of New Marlborough, MA.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Even bigger jump on the GEFS fwiw.

May give you an idea where this is heading actually.

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

Honestly no idea Shutesbury was a town

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

May give you an idea where this is heading actually.

Well, it's now in line with the majority of guidance

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

The big holdouts we need to see cave are GFS and 12k NAM, which at the moment are in good agreement with each other but nothing else.

What I see as continuing discordance between strength/placement of that vorticity and SLP on the 18z 12k NAM make me think we'll see trends for better this evening.

18z GFS showing signs of caving, and even so still could be better given that vorticity strength/placement but it struggles with low placement and conveyor mechanics because of that lead convection.

Consensus is growing, and I still think there is potential for more NW trends.

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Well, it's now in line with the majority of guidance

Just looked at 12z GEFS as a comparison and that was a big move but the ensembles move with the OP usually.

[JC-CT]

Just now, wxsniss said:

18z GFS showing signs of caving, and even so still could be better given that vorticity strength/placement but it struggles with low placement and conveyor mechanics because of that lead convection.

Consensus is growing, and I still think there is potential for more NW trends.

This map seems fine

[78Blizzard]

I think the TV mets may be underestimating the amounts for the Cape.  In some scenarios they could be the jack.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Honestly no idea Shutesbury was a town

It’s is a bigly town.  I wish Hubbardston could be like Shutesbury

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Just looked at 12z GEFS as a comparison and that was a big move but the ensembles move with the OP usually.

And it was out to lunch at 12z vs Euro/ggem/rgem/ukie/3km nam

[CoastalWx]

Winds go north. Not sure Pete’s temp logic.

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Weird town plots there. Goshen and Sprague in CT, really?

Same for Massachusetts. Shutesbury? Who even knows where that is?

[JC-CT]

Just now, kdxken said:

Same for Massachusetts. Shutesbury? Who even knows where that is?

we all do...now

[78Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

 

I think the mid 30's will be when the storm departs.

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s is a bigly town.  I wish Hubbardston could be like Shutesbury

One of my accounts actually, And working on a new order for them as we speak today ha ha

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Winds go north. Not sure Pete’s temp logic.

He looked at a gfs surface temperature prog which in these situations are always fraught 

[CoastalWx]

So gfs ends early hence warmer high temps. Euro debunks his logic. Lol.

[DavisStraight]

14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fisher. WBZ map 

 

About the same as Harveys