Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could see a weenie fronto band well NW before the initial surge of precip.

Early look 18z HRRR went wild on the south shore.  Good banding from Long Island to Ginxy to you on the simulated radar.

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The EPS still have a westward skew, but the variance is getting pretty tight now.

I think the western "skew" is still somewhat an artifact of the dual/elongated low. if you have two relatively equal pressure centers, or one elongated pressure center, it could chose to put the L on the east or the west but the reality is that it is both. That's not all of what's going on, but it has to be some of it.

[ORH_wxman]

18z RGEM is ticking east

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

18z RGEM is ticking east

Of course, why not

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z RGEM is ticking east

how u like my inverted trough

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z RGEM is ticking east

Where are you getting it?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Where are you getting it?

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Of course, why not

it's really basically the same

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Too early for me to tell…

[8611Blizz]

Well Bouchard does say that this will start just after midnight and will be done 12 hours later.  His totals are about 2-4" and to me that's pretty shitty after 12 hours of snow. Haven't seen harvey yet though.

[eduggs]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's trying, biut not quite enough this run to deliver the real goodies....still a better look at least than 12z. Most of my hope in this system is due to the strong vortmax....that as we get closer and closer, the model guidance will be focusing more of the forcing along the track of that vortmax and not to the east.

Yeah, it ended up a touch better aloft and at the surface. Probably a touch worse through about 36 or 39hr and then a touch better thereafter. But the runs are nearly identical. Great run to run consistency for at least 6 hours 

Overanalyzing feels a little like desperation though...squinting to see an improvement. If there is a positive change it will be pretty obvious I think. This run wasn't that. Any miniscule improvement on the NAM does not offset the loss of 6 hours before go time.

[weathafella]

RGEM looked just fine I thought especially for mby.

[FXWX]

28 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't hate that 700mb low track on the NAM. Explains the QPF max/mid level goodies from HFD to BOS. 

Those are the types of features that you (we collectively) always need to use when looking at a raw qpf output, and then make appropriate adjustments... 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Well Bouchard does say that this will start just after midnight and will be done 12 hours later.  His totals are about 2-4" and to me that's pretty shitty after 12 hours of snow. Haven't seen harvey yet though.

Harvey will likely go 4-6/4-8 for Boston 

[eduggs]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Early look 18z HRRR went wild on the south shore.  Good banding from Long Island to Ginxy to you on the simulated radar.

That doesn't look so unreasonable. Ratio gradient and possibly a touch of mixing far SE will probably smooth that out a bit. Maybe knock a tenth of QPF off everywhere and it looks very plausible.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

RGEM looked just fine I thought especially for mby.

It was still probably marginal warning snow over far eastern MA and SE MA....but it def was a little worse than 12z. It seems like we're starting to converge somewhat. I'd like to see a tickle west on GFS and Euro though to be more confident of warning snows in eastern MA/RI.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Those are the types of features that you (we collectively) always need to use when looking at a raw qpf output, and then make appropriate adjustments... 

Us vets know to that . Hence the 4-8”

[CoastalWx]

I think the weenie band stuff is that one band prior to the onset of the meaty stuff. You can see it on some QPF fields. It's a band of snow well ahead of the main stuff. 

I'm not sure the main storm will have much of a big band well NW as it deepens quickly and consolidates. Maybe early on, but it contracts quickly.

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Harvey will likely go 4-6/4-8 for Boston 

It's possible he may do that at the 11:00 PM news cycle if the trends continue.

[wxsniss]

For fun, from 3kNAM Boston area Friday morning... would be heaviest we've seen since last year:

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, wxsniss said:

For fun, from 3kNAM Boston area Friday morning... would be heaviest we've seen since last year:

So.. It looks like the hartford CT area is in the game as well. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, FXWX said:

Those are the types of features that you (we collectively) always need to use when looking at a raw qpf output, and then make appropriate adjustments... 

I am struggling to even figure out where the 700mb center is on the 12km.

 

[NorEastermass128]

Pete B very conservative. 1-2” SEMA. 2-4” for most. He’s thinking closer to 2” for the city. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think the weenie band stuff is that one band prior to the onset of the meaty stuff. You can see it on some QPF fields. It's a band of snow well ahead of the main stuff. 

I'm not sure the main storm will have much of a big band well NW as it deepens quickly and consolidates. Maybe early on, but it contracts quickly.

Yeah the weenie band is prob like 06z to 10z or something and then things start collapsing SE quickly....the key for bigger snows out east is when that happens, do we see a potent little stinger develop and slowly push offshore giving 1-2" per hour for several hours?

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was still probably marginal warning snow over far eastern MA and SE MA....but it def was a little worse than 12z. It seems like we're starting to converge somewhat. I'd like to see a tickle west on GFS and Euro though to be more confident of warning snows in eastern MA/RI.

It definitely kept good snows inside 495 going into the afternoon.  Surprisingly so to me but seeing 986 as it passed east of BOS is an ok look to me.

[8611Blizz]

Well Harvey is 3-6" for now but he "monitoring" things.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

It definitely kept good snows inside 495 going into the afternoon.  Surprisingly so to me but seeing 986 as it passed east of BOS is an ok look to me.

The mid-levels have been lackluster compared to H5....if we increase the inflow just slightly, this will light up the QPF maps on model guidance....you can see it on the 3k somewhat.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Pete B very conservative. 1-2” SEMA. 2-4” for most. He’s thinking closer to 2” for the city. 

Way too conservative imho.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the weenie band is prob like 06z to 10z or something and then things start collapsing SE quickly....the key for bigger snows out east is when that happens, do we see a potent little stinger develop and slowly push offshore giving 1-2" per hour for several hours?

I feel like a weenie, but I just feel like this has a few tricks up its sleeve. Why do I feel like 3K NAM might have an idea?

[8611Blizz]

Just now, weathafella said:

Way too conservative imho.

Funny he mentioned Brookline when talking a bout the 1-2" line