Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[ineedsnow]

3k looks fun

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

3km coming in hot

Better than 12z....now that is what we want to see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would hold off of any spiking until we see 00z continue this...off hour runs have been zonked.

[Sn0waddict]

3K  looks better too.

[ineedsnow]

3k is sweet maybe we can track this over the cape or just east

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure how this doesn't end up better at the surface

Agreed, but we've seen this before where the ULs look good but don't translate down to surface.

 It's the NAM though so I don't take credence in anything it shows for winter storms. 

[wxsniss]

Given that NAM/GFS were the worst at 12z, this is a definite positive step.

Still think the strength of this vorticity (now that it's held with overnight sampling) brings potential for better trends.

[dryslot]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Better than 12z....now that is what we want to see.

can we just lock that in, we just got 3km nam'd

[mikem81]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

3km coming in hot

The NAM has clear LP placement issues...

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3km is my 6-12" east, 3-6" west.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would hold off of any spiking until we see 00z continue this...off hour runs have been zonked.

Yeah 00z tonight is kind of the big showdown...should get another good sample of the shortwave on the KTFK and KRIW launch sites too.

[dryslot]

This is what most want to see.

 

[ORH_wxman]

That's a hell of a stinger to end the event over eastern areas on the 3k...that would be a fun morning rush hour.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3km NAM definitely looks more realistic from ULs to surface.

[Greg]

C

[Damage In Tolland]

Lot of beer , lot of girls and lot of cursing for the Nammy 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

3km NAM definitely looks more realistic from ULs to surface.

Totally...perhaps the higher res guidance is more adeptly resolving the intricacies of the convective processes.

[78Blizzard]

3k gives me .82 qpf vs 12k's .24.  That's quite a big difference between the two.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

3k gives me .82 qpf vs 12 k's .24.  That's quite a big difference between the two.

Almost 4X as much lol…

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the totals on that 3km NAM are underdone from the Berkshires up through the chicken coops...come H7 banding out there that run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That run is 6-12" back to the NY border.....10"+ pretty isolated.

[weathafella]

There I was on a call while drooling over 3k.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That run is 6-12" back to the NY border.....10"+ pretty isolated.

Hello mate 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hello mate 

Lets see after 00z....if we develop a consensus around that look, then I would change my map much tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the totals on that 3km NAM are underdone from the Berkshires up through the chicken coops...come H7 banding out there that run.

Notice H7 closed off over the upper cape at this point....

[CT Rain]

I don't hate that 700mb low track on the NAM. Explains the QPF max/mid level goodies from HFD to BOS. 

[wxsniss]

The big holdouts we need to see cave are GFS and 12k NAM, which at the moment are in good agreement with each other but nothing else.

What I see as continuing discordance between strength/placement of that vorticity and SLP on the 18z 12k NAM make me think we'll see trends for better this evening.

[CoastalWx]

Could see a weenie fronto band well NW before the initial surge of precip.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I don't hate that 700mb low track on the NAM. Explains the QPF max/mid level goodies from HFD to BOS. 

Take em up