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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Check GFS and NAM again.

GFS 24 hr precip from 12z Thursday:

Wide swath of .1 to .15 northwest for my region, metro west.

24 hr precip from 12z Friday

Worcester east gets .05 to .1

You are technically correct about a pedantic detail from the most progressive piece of guidance. Excuse me that I didn't differentiate between .1-.15 inches of crappy low-res QPF output from .05-.1 inches of it.

 

NAM 12km before the storm: Metrowest has, let's say, .05 inches of antecedent precip.

NAM accumulated QPF up until 12z Friday: metrowest has .2

NAM accumulated QPF by 18z: metrowest has .3

Congrats. Guess what all other guidance has though?

NAM 3km antecendent: .2-.3 for metrowest

NAM 3km total up until 12z Friday: .5 for metrowest

NAM 3km total after: .75+

 

RGEM antecendent: .2-.3

RGEM total before 12z: .4

RGEM total after: .75-1, exceeding 1 in spots.

 

EC 24 hour accum before: .1-.2

EC 24 hr accum after: .3

 

Don't accuse me of not being able to read a map, saying I can't think for myself because of twitter meteorologists. Laughable.

 

 

gfs_apcpn24_neus_5.png

namconus_apcpn_neus_12.png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_12.png

rgem_apcpn_neus_40.png

rgem_apcpn_neus_48.png

rgem_apcpn_neus_61.png

qpf_024h.us_ne.png

qpf_024h.us_ne (1).png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_16.png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_18.png

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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Ericjcrash

Ericjcrash

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Why are we bitching so hard? It looks like we'll get at least a moderate event, and we haven't had basically anything yet... Why so attached to the romantic idea of a bombing coastal, crawling and doing loop-de-loops south of Montauk? Not every storm has to be +3 sd intense. Just enjoy the several inches and be glad that it's snowing in the daytime.

It's early, but definitely a post of the year candidate.

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

GFS 24 hr precip from 12z Thursday:

Wide swath of .1 to .15 northwest for my region, metro west.

24 hr precip from 12z Friday

Worcester east gets .05 to .1

You are technically correct about a pedantic detail from the most progressive piece of guidance. Excuse me that I didn't differentiate between .1-.15 inches of crappy low-res QPF output from .05-.1 inches of it.

 

NAM 12km before the storm: Metrowest has, let's say, .05 inches of antecedent precip.

NAM accumulated QPF up until 12z Friday: metrowest has .2

NAM accumulated QPF by 18z: metrowest has .3

Congrats. Guess what all other guidance has though?

NAM 3km antecendent: .2-.3 for metrowest

NAM 3km total up until 12z Friday: .5 for metrowest

NAM 3km total after: .75+

 

RGEM antecendent: .2-.3

RGEM total before 12z: .4

RGEM total after: .75-1, exceeding 1 in spots.

 

EC 24 hour accum before: .1-.2

EC 24 hr accum after: .3

 

Don't accuse me of not being able to read a map, saying I can't think for myself because of twitter meteorologists. Laughable.

 

 

gfs_apcpn24_neus_5.png

namconus_apcpn_neus_12.png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_12.png

rgem_apcpn_neus_40.png

rgem_apcpn_neus_48.png

rgem_apcpn_neus_61.png

qpf_024h.us_ne.png

qpf_024h.us_ne (1).png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_16.png

nam3km_apcpn_neus_18.png

I'll take the NAM 3KM for 400 please.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

We're in the minority.  Many seem ready to lose their shit.

I almost prefer nothing instead of an inch or two because I’m enjoying the bare ground for a number of reasons.
 I mean, I’m totally on board with snow if there’s enough for me and the kid to ski or sled on. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I almost prefer nothing instead of an inch or two because I’m enjoying the bare ground for a number of reasons.
 I mean, I’m totally on board with snow if there’s enough for me and the kid to ski or sled on. 

I got one last rake in on Monday after the last bit of snow had melted.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're getting that curl.

Yeah it's trying, biut not quite enough this run to deliver the real goodies....still a better look at least than 12z. Most of my hope in this system is due to the strong vortmax....that as we get closer and closer, the model guidance will be focusing more of the forcing along the track of that vortmax and not to the east.

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