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Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS has less than a tenth QPF west of the Cape after 12z Friday. I would guess it ends up lingering longer, but that's what the GFS shows. The EC looks more like .1-.2, which seems reasonable.

I'll go with the RGEM, which has been the most consistent with this system.  It gives my hood .45 for the 6 hrs ending 18z and .13 for the 6 hrs ending 0z.

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Baroclinic Zone
Baroclinic Zone

This should cover it.

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

All those cars I see in the morning must be going to the pot shops

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

You don't even need fancy fronto maps to see where pound town is below. Look at that inflow at 50-60kts slam into the s coast with lighter winds to the north. There is your front and convergence. Air

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, George001 said:

This is looking to be a decent storm, and then a possible big one mid Jan. This is only the beginning of all hell breaking loose based on what the guidance shows. Jan 2011, March 2018, and dare I say it, Feb 2015. The pattern looks that good for mid month, and I’m all in. 

Can we freeze you in a cryogenic lab until that pattern materializes 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pluffmud said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE 
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 
208 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON... 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible during the Friday morning commute. 
Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. 

* WHERE...Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, including the 
Interstate 95 Boston to Providence corridor. 

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Be prepared for difficult travel during the Friday 
morning commute. Heavy snow may create poor visibility and 
slippery road conditions. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour 
are possible during the Friday morning commute. 

a watch for 4 to 6?

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

What happened to this subforum? When I lived in MA 20 years ago and subsequently posted in the predecessor forums, hobbyists actually knew how to read weather model output. People looked at soundings and upper level charts. There was a lot less wishcasting and snow-entitlement. 

I guess somewhere along the line 3rd party snow maps and twitter meteorologists made us all stupid. It's kind of like how GPS ruined our sense of navigation.

I only look at that level of detail when:

1) I'm issuing a forecast.

2) Its a very interesting solution.

Neither applies today.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

00s and 10s happened.

2000s/2010s for sure....but he's not wrong about the clown maps. The clown maps are cringe....admittedly fun to look at, but they shouldn't be used beyond entertainment unless you know they are actually representative of the system (which most will not know).

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, George001 said:

This is looking to be a decent storm, and then a possible big one mid Jan. This is only the beginning of all hell breaking loose based on what the guidance shows. Jan 2011, March 2018, and dare I say it, Feb 2015. The pattern looks that good for mid month, and I’m all in. 

There are too many George Costanza pics and gifs to paste here so we’ll just give you one of these instead:

:weenie:

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE 
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 
208 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON... 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible during the Friday morning commute. 
Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. 

* WHERE...Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, including the 
Interstate 95 Boston to Providence corridor. 

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Be prepared for difficult travel during the Friday 
morning commute. Heavy snow may create poor visibility and 
slippery road conditions. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour 
are possible during the Friday morning commute. 

Yet their discussion said "an advisory level event is the most likely scenario." 

 
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Watches? Didn't see that one coming. Guess with the uncertainity and possibility of ramping up its covering the potential but 4-6 is really pushing it for a watch here. Thats 5" avg.

It's a marginal watch....though for SE MA, it's probably close. You only need 50% confidence of 6" for a watch and they are probably pretty close to that in SE MA. I'd prob wait until tonight personally, but given that there hasn't been any real snow yet this winter and that it will fall during Friday rush hour there, I can see hedging slightly more aggressive.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Watches? Didn't see that one coming. Guess with the uncertainity and possibility of ramping up its covering the potential but 4-6 is really pushing it for a watch here. Thats 5" avg.

 

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Yet their discussion said "an advisory level event is the most likely scenario." 

 

Just covering their asses in case it ramps up a bit...what is there to lose?

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted
Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Just covering their asses in case it ramps up a bit...what is there to lose?

Probably looking at what happened about 500 miles down I-95. Put out a watch to make people pay some attention, especially for the first "storm" of the season.

Of course, it happened somewhere with an average snowfall of about 10" and a bunch of people who have no idea what to do when a flurry hits (and no snow tires).

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Watches? Didn't see that one coming. Guess with the uncertainity and possibility of ramping up its covering the potential but 4-6 is really pushing it for a watch here. Thats 5" avg.

I believe most WFO's do it on the first of the season storms to make the public aware.

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