Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

You are wrong, all models have the bulk of snow where we are between 8 and noon. We do not live in New Jersey.

He’s lost. Let em go. 

[eduggs]

The GFS has less than a tenth QPF west of the Cape after 12z Friday. I would guess it ends up lingering longer, but that's what the GFS shows. The EC looks more like .1-.2, which seems reasonable.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Friday morning but yeah

Yeah even here in NE CT it snows until noon or early afternoon 

[ORH_wxman]

The EPS still have a westward skew, but the variance is getting pretty tight now.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah even here in NE CT it snows until noon or early afternoon 

most guidance is like 1am to 7am for CT maybe 8-9am for you.. hopefully we can get it to trend longer til noon, I hate when snow ends around daybreak... 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

most guidance is like 1am to 7am for CT maybe 8-9am for you.. hopefully we can get it to trend longer til noon, I hate when snow ends around daybreak... 

Stuff  I’ve seen has light snows lingering to noon-1:00 this area 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The EPS still have a westward skew, but the variance is getting pretty tight now.

 

About half of those are pretty desirable outcomes, which are odds that I would take

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

You are wrong, all models have the bulk of snow where we are between 8 and noon. We do not live in New Jersey.

Check GFS and NAM again.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The EPS still have a westward skew, but the variance is getting pretty tight now.

 

I just zoomed in and ya a lot of west members still, 65%

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stuff  I’ve seen has light snows lingering to noon-1:00 this area 

we hope

[dryslot]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I just zoomed in and ya a lot of west members still, 65%

Hmm, That's a higher pct then there has been.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stuff  I’ve seen has light snows lingering to noon-1:00 this area 

That was the snow machine at electric blue 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, dryslot said:

Hmm, That's a higher pct then there has been.

The west members are still 100 miles east of CHH except maybe 3

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Hmm, That's a higher pct then there has been.

I just posted a map, what do you think.. looks pretty convincing west lean

[Greg]

FROM WEATHER SERVICE NORTON, MA

*Thursday night through Friday...

Coastal low-pressure system will develop off the mid-Atlantic
coast Thursday night and make it`s way toward southern New
England during the early hours of Friday. This system will
likely produce widespread snowfall, but is not forecast to be
a major storm. Right now there are a couple of ingredients
lacking with this system that will limit both impacts and snow
accumulations. First, there isn`t expected to be strong enough
forcing to generate intense snowfall rates. Second, there is no
downstream blocking that will slow the system allowing it to
produce snowfall for a longer period of time.

At this point an advisory level event is the most likely
scenario. The jury is still out on the track of this system, but
latest ensemble guidance has the storm tracking just south and
east of the 70/40 benchmark. This would mean a higher snowfall
potential for the southeastern portions of southern New England
and a lower potential for the northwestern portions. The
consensus among the global model ensembles is for a swath of 4-6
inches of snow across the east/southeastern areas including
Boston and Providence. West of I- 495 would be more likely to
see amounts in the 2-4 inch range. While 4-6 inches doesn`t fall
into the category of a major winter storm it certainly should
not be ignored. Latest trends suggest the heaviest snowfall
would be in the early to mid morning hours Friday, thus the
modest snow accumulations could impact the morning commute.
Latest trends support the snowfall ending in the early to mid
afternoon. Finer details will be ironed out in the next 12-24
hours as the exact track of the system becomes more clear.

[eduggs]

What happened to this subforum? When I lived in MA 20 years ago and subsequently posted in the predecessor forums, hobbyists actually knew how to read weather model output. People looked at soundings and upper level charts. There was a lot less wishcasting and snow-entitlement. 

I guess somewhere along the line 3rd party snow maps and twitter meteorologists made us all stupid. It's kind of like how GPS ruined our sense of navigation.

[dryslot]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The west members are still 100 miles east of CHH except maybe 3

Not my biggest world problem, That actually is good anything 75-100mi, Its where its heading off to is the issue up here, Make sure i make that clear so when greg comes and weenie tags me again.

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

On the RGEM, not the GFS, EC etc. If it wraps up a little bit it will probably hang around longer.

 

Nothing starts before 4AM.   Most have the good stuff in by or just after 12z.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

What happened to this subforum? When I lived in MA 20 years ago and subsequently posted in the predecessor forums, hobbyists actually knew how to read weather model output. People looked at soundings and upper level charts. There was a lot less wishcasting and snow-entitlement. 

I guess somewhere along the line 3rd party snow maps and twitter meteorologists made us all stupid. It's kind of like how GPS ruined our sense of navigation.

00s and 10s happened.

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I just zoomed in and ya a lot of west members still, 65%

the problem is the ENE motion that follows

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

What happened to this subforum? When I lived in MA 20 years ago and subsequently posted in the predecessor forums, hobbyists actually knew how to read weather model output. People looked at soundings and upper level charts. There was a lot less wishcasting and snow-entitlement. 

I guess somewhere along the line 3rd party snow maps and twitter meteorologists made us all stupid. It's kind of like how GPS ruined our sense of navigation.

That's probably all you needed to say and hit the nail on the head.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

00s and 10s happened.

Hmmm is that it 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

the problem is the ENE motion that follows

Folks up here know, The rest don't care, We carry on.

[SouthCoastMA]

The last 3-4 years were needed to level set weenie expectations..not sure 3-4 years will do it though. Gonna take harder times to beat those weenies down and reform them. Maybe like a full decades worth of ratters

[George001]

This is looking to be a decent storm, and then a possible big one mid Jan. This is only the beginning of all hell breaking loose based on what the guidance shows. Jan 2011, March 2018, and dare I say it, Feb 2015. The pattern looks that good for mid month, and I’m all in. 

[weathafella]

The inability to consolidate mid level centers is a problem.  If the 850 low were 75 miles further south we’d be doubling the qpf.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

About half of those are pretty desirable outcomes, which are odds that I would take

I was thinking the same thing…those look decent to me.  I guess we wait and see how it plays out the next day or so.

[The 4 Seasons]

While the EPS mean spread is tightening that is still quite a large spread for a 48 hour time lead compared a lot of typical coastals i've seen/tracked over the last 10 years. 

I think we'll know by the 06Z Friday runs...

 

[WxFreak11]

Your Radar | Current Conditions | 15-Day Forecast

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE 
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 
208 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON... 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible during the Friday morning commute. 
Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches possible. 

* WHERE...Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, including the 
Interstate 95 Boston to Providence corridor. 

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Be prepared for difficult travel during the Friday 
morning commute. Heavy snow may create poor visibility and 
slippery road conditions. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour 
are possible during the Friday morning commute. 

[weathafella]

To distill George’s post down to the reality factor-we are changing the pattern.  Let’s see what happens.