Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I guess the 1 Hail Mary is models are underestimating the strength of the shortwave 

[JC-CT]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I guess the 1 Hail Mary is models are underestimating the strength of the shortwave 

and/or overestimating/misplacing the junk off the southeast coast

[George001]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Is this a similar storm to the superbowl storm last year, synoptically? Just curious

I hope so, I was forecasted to get like 2-4 and ended up with a foot that storm. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

Technically, We should be comparing 06z and 12z, Those are the two latest runs, But yeah, 12z would be better then 0z, But were going the wrong way at 12z.

Usually I like to compare to the last cycle....but this system definitely has some weird off-hour/on hour tango dance going on.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Try 10 to 1 maps....Kuchie be messing with the ratios....the QPF is almost identical to 00z except a bit more up north and far west.

Yeah nice regional 3-6/4-8” there. Nice look 

[bristolri_wx]

I wouldn't trust some of the snow maps honestly at the moment - not because they are giving us bad news, but because there is some model weirdness going on.  The GFS sounding has the temp rising 7 degrees to 35 at the surface as the storm has passed us to the ENE with winds coming out of the NW and thicknesses between 516 and 520 over head.  That's just not happening - its not common sense weather.  And that type of output is going to affect snowfall map output.  It's not going to rain over my house with 850 temps -18C, yet that's what the surface output on the GFS says is happening.

All I'm saying is that there's a lot of doom and gloom here, but there's a lot of model spread still and a lot of weirdness going on. 2-4" and 3-6" seems realistic and probably at this point.  I guess it sucks that we're not getting a 12", but after last week's garbage I'm surprised we're even getting this...

[Henry's Weather]

Why are we bitching so hard? It looks like we'll get at least a moderate event, and we haven't had basically anything yet... Why so attached to the romantic idea of a bombing coastal, crawling and doing loop-de-loops south of Montauk? Not every storm has to be +3 sd intense. Just enjoy the several inches and be glad that it's snowing in the daytime.

[Spanks45]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I feel like that euro run would argue 3-6” for most of CT as we’d have some nice banding for a bit.. maybe 1-3” far NW.

I guess I worry a bit about getting stuck between the precip west of us and the low taking too long to develop to our SE. The progressive flow is going to leave someone stuck in between the handoff. I have noticed that happening  over the years I have lived here in CT, until you get east of the river out towards RI where the coastal precip takes over...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

and/or overestimating/misplacing the junk off the southeast coast

That feature is semi consistent on most models. I think a shift like we need is low probability at this point 

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowfall is qualitatively similar in distribution to 06z, but its quantitatively a couple of inches less across the board.

time to bring em down

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That feature is semi consistent on most models. I think a shift like we need is low probability at this point 

Need for what?

[mahk_webstah]

16 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

0-12"

then take 1/10 of George's and you've got your lollies.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Usually I like to compare to the last cycle....but this system definitely has some weird off-hour/on hour tango dance going on.

Either way, We tread a little water at 12z, But we all know what can happen.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That feature is semi consistent on most models. I think a shift like we need is low probability at this point 

You really don't need a big change though to have a greater outcome, So you think this is it? Lock it in?

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

You really don't need a big change though to have a greater outcome, So you think this is it? Lock it in?

I'm not even sure what he's trying to lock in. The Euro? 12km NAM? What?

 

And just a reminder for everyone to set their expectations reasonably:

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I'm not even sure what he's trying to lock in. The Euro? 12km NAM? What?

 

And just a reminder for everyone to set their expectations reasonably:

Yeah, Nothing, There is not one solution to rest your leg on, We continue.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Yeah, Nothing, There is not one solution to rest your leg on, We continue.

fascinating how they are splitting up each state into its own map though, and the continuity just looks funky...even though we are talking 1% basically

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You really don't need a big change though to have a greater outcome, So you think this is it? Lock it in?

If it’s not 6-12” it’s meh I guess.  Spoiled brats they are. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Nothing, There is not one solution to rest your leg on, We continue.

This! 

[eduggs]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Try 10 to 1 maps....Kuchie be messing with the ratios....the QPF is almost identical to 00z except a bit more up north and far west.

It increased QPF in a few areas and decreased in others. Under a tenth either way for the most part. Like you say, almost identical distribution. 

[eduggs]

23 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Why are we bitching so hard? It looks like we'll get at least a moderate event, and we haven't had basically anything yet... Why so attached to the romantic idea of a bombing coastal, crawling and doing loop-de-loops south of Montauk? Not every storm has to be +3 sd intense. Just enjoy the several inches and be glad that it's snowing in the daytime.

Eastern areas should get a little lingering daytime snowfall. But for many this will primarily be a nighttime event.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm not even sure what he's trying to lock in. The Euro? 12km NAM? What?

 

And just a reminder for everyone to set their expectations reasonably:

I think those probs are too low in eastern areas. Like I think SE MA def has more than a 10% chance of 8"....maybe not WAY more, but I'd prob put the chances more like 25-30% there. It will prob only take about a half inch to 6 tenths of QPF to get 8" there and there are several pieces of guidance that give that.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think those probs are too low in eastern areas. Like I think SE MA def has more than a 10% chance of 8"....maybe not WAY more, but I'd prob put the chances more like 25-30% there. It will prob only take about a half inch to 6 tenths of QPF to get 8" there and there are several pieces of guidance that give that.

heh, I thought that too but I wasn't going to say it lol

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Eastern areas should get a little lingering daytime snowfall. But for many this will primarily be a nighttime event.

I live in ESNE, not the case for us. Unless you swear by the 3km NAM at hour 48

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is not mainly a night even here. It starts early Thursday morning and the “meat” (if you can call it that) is through the morning until close to lunch time 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is not mainly a night even here. It starts early Thursday morning and the “meat” (if you can call it that) is through the morning until close to lunch time 

Friday morning but yeah

[dryslot]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is not mainly a night even here. It starts early Thursday morning and the “meat” (if you can call it that) is through the morning until close to lunch time 

Going to suck dealing with the sun angle for this then with just sand coming down, Hate to see.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Eastern areas should get a little lingering daytime snowfall. But for many this will primarily be a nighttime event.

The meat in Boston is morning to around just past noon.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The meat in Boston is morning to around just past noon.

On the RGEM, not the GFS, EC etc. If it wraps up a little bit it will probably hang around longer.

 

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

On the RGEM, not the GFS, EC etc. If it wraps up a little bit it will probably hang around longer.

 

You are wrong, all models have the bulk of snow where we are between 8 and noon. We do not live in New Jersey.