Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[WeatherHappens]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

For coastal areas. 

hi

[George001]

Not a fan of the latest european guidance. Hopefully just a blip run

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

he said 0z

Yea, my bad.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Try 10 to 1 maps....Kuchie be messing with the ratios....the QPF is almost identical to 00z except a bit more up north and far west.

Actually you posted 06z vs 12z....i was talking 00z vs 12z. 06z was definitely better than 12z.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro is a general 1-3, 2-4….. mainly 1-2” for most 

How do you look at that snow map and arrive at mainly 1-2”?  That’s like DIT seeing it and saying 5-10”.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

1-3 for most of SNE, 3-5 SE areas...anyone gets under some banding might see 5 or 6 inches but most likely the highest totals in southern Delaware, again...

Sounds right. Maybe bump it by an inch…as every inch matters. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Actually you posted 06z vs 12z....i was talking 00z vs 12z. 06z was definitely better than 12z.

Yea, sorry.

[NorEastermass128]

2-5 on the EURO.  I’d take it. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, powderfreak said:

How do you look at that snow map and arrive at mainly 1-2”?

Snow maps FTL… unless you get under a good band, that’s a pretty light snowfall 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

How do you look at that snow map and arrive at mainly 1-2”?

He has to stay on brand...just slice off a couple inches.

[JC-CT]

the best qpf is actually on the southeast side of the slp center

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Snow maps FTL… unless you get under a good band, that’s a pretty light snowfall 

I don't think so...ratios should be decent.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

He has to stay on brand...just slice off a couple inches.

Between TBlizz and DIT numbers, one can derive a pretty accurate snowmap. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Between TBlizz and DIT extremems, one can derive a pretty accurate snowmap. 

0-12"

[wxsniss]

Blend of 12z NAM/RGEM/EC/UK/CMC supports 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE

I like the Box map and think they hold steady this afternoon

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is turning into just enough snow to destroy my Friday commute but not enough to cancel work.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think so...ratios should be decent.

This definitely looks like some midlevel goodies...most of us are obviously still rooting for the 0.75-1.00 QPF slamming on Atlantic inflow, but aside from that, it's probably going to be nice snow growth in the ML banding that is consistently being signaled over SNE. Even like a 13 or 14 to 1 ratio will give 4" on a quarter inch qpf...and it's possible ratios are a bit higher inside a decent band.

[JC-CT]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Blend of 12z NAM/RGEM/EC/UK/CMC supports 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE

I like the Box map and think they hold steady this afternoon

btw, OKX already lowered their forecast for southern CT, it just isn't updated on the BOX composite map

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, JC-CT said:

0-12"

Lol right… so you shave off TBlizz’s and DIT’s ranges and it’s dead on. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Snow maps FTL… unless you get under a good band, that’s a pretty light snowfall 

You think ratios will suck?

[weathafella]

21 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Just missed you in the overnight shift, now tuning in for Euro... yeah I posted that the site going down last night was a mercy kill for all the overreacting over 1/5 0z NAM.

Haven't wavered from thoughts since weekend: 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE as a start, and now that we've survived ingest of shortwave sampling in Pac NW, I still anticipate this could trend NW in final 48 hours with potential for higher totals.

Yeah it would have been fun to have both of us on while the zonked NAM was coming out.  I ended up turning off the light to sleep around 4:15AM.  Got up around 10:45 and decided to get out of bed so I can break this crazy cycle and maybe turn the light off around 3-vs later than 4.  

I think we're good for 6+.

[dryslot]

Technically, We should be comparing 06z and 12z, Those are the two latest runs, But yeah, 12z would be better then 0z, But were going the wrong way at 12z.

[JC-CT]

Just now, powderfreak said:

You think ratios will suck?

the day when tblizz starts posting soundings...

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The QPF map ends up looking almost identical to 00z in the end...maybe a little better out west and up north than 00z.

Yeah precip shield has been expanding north of SNE these last two cycles. 

[Henry's Weather]

Is this a similar storm to the superbowl storm last year, synoptically? Just curious

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Technically, We should be comparing 06z and 12z, Those are the two latest runs, But yeah, 12z would be better then 0z, But were going the wrong way at 12z.

my therapist disagrees

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This definitely looks like some midlevel goodies...most of us are obviously still rooting for the 0.75-1.00 QPF slamming on Atlantic inflow, but aside from that, it's probably going to be nice snow growth in the ML banding that is consistently being signaled over SNE. Even like a 13 or 14 to 1 ratio will give 4" on a quarter inch qpf...and it's possible ratios are a bit higher inside a decent band.

Yea. as disappointed as I am in the grand scheme of things, I don't expect this to underperform snow maps.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

my therapist disagrees

You may want to stop wasting your money.