Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[JC-CT]

yeah if anything, slightly broader than 6z

[JC-CT]

the convection off the SE coast is a bit further SE this run though, not sure how that will play out

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Just missed you in the overnight shift, now tuning in for Euro... yeah I posted that the site going down last night was a mercy kill for all the overreacting over 1/5 0z NAM.

Haven't wavered from thoughts since weekend: 3-6/4-8 for eastern SNE as a start, and now that we've survived ingest of shortwave sampling in Pac NW, I still anticipate this could trend NW in final 48 hours with potential for higher totals.

The angst wasn't about the NAM as much as it was the SW getting sampled at the same time.

[JC-CT]

it's definitely still considerably further west with the trough than the GFS

[ORH_wxman]

Looks just a ahir less amped than 06z at 36 hours...but more amped than 00z.

[JC-CT]

people probably won't love the qpf vs 6z but it's different enough from the GFS to give pause that either is final. i dunno

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Tic east and less amped than 6z again, it flips every cycle...

[dryslot]

14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Would love to see dryslot at hr 18 on euro start saying “this is coming west” 

You wont be, It slipped east from 06z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Tic East and less amped than 6z again, it flips every cycle...

It does which means those are the goalposts imwo.

[mahk_webstah]

That finishes it for many of us.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks east. Still could be some nice snows, but probably curtains for. Warning event 

[powderfreak]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

That finishes it for many of us.

Until 18z.

[dryslot]

It tries to curl back some when it gets close to NS, If we can just get that sooner that would help eastern areas, But just commenting like earlier, The SLP on today's 12z runs for the most part is weaker coming off the coast so a combo of that and the convection chase is letting this get a bit further east before it climbs the coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Snowfall is qualitatively similar in distribution to 06z, but its quantitatively a couple of inches less across the board.

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I said a couple days ago we would soon be hearing:

"Still a couple inches for the Cape." 

Almost there.

Why? The modeling has improved since 00z, not the other way around.  The trends have been better...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just too progressive on its approach friday am. Not curling up NNE . 

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Why? The modeling has improved since 00z, not the other way around.  The trends have been better...

For coastal areas. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Why? The modeling has improved since 00z, not the other way around.  The trends have been better...

And then slipped back somewhat from 06z to 12z.

[bristolri_wx]

Ignore the models that are flip-flopping, and stick with the models that are consistent.  NAM is wavering back and forth on this one, especially the 12k.  Keep it lower on the list of consideration.  Not a wish-cast here, just seems like common sense.

[wxsniss]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It wasn't about the NAM as much as it was the SW getting sampled at the same time.

Oh I understand, that was my concern as well, and why the 6z/12z meso runs today are reassuring.

12z Euro almost identical to 0z, a hair less than 6z.

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It does which means those are the goalposts imwo.

1-3 for most of SNE, 3-5 SE areas...anyone gets under some banding might see 5 or 6 inches but most likely the highest totals in southern Delaware, again...

[ORH_wxman]

The QPF map ends up looking almost identical to 00z in the end...maybe a little better out west and up north than 00z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Oh I understand, that was my concern as well, and why the 6z/12z meso runs today are reassuring.

12z Euro almost identical to 0z, a hair less than 6z.

It cut snowfall by about a third across the board.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

1-3 for most of SNE, 3-5 SE areas...anyone gets under some banding might see 5 or 6 inches but most likely the highest totals in southern Delaware, again...

I feel like that euro run would argue 3-6” for most of CT as we’d have some nice banding for a bit.. maybe 1-3” far NW.

[NeonPeon]

4 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Why? The modeling has improved since 00z, not the other way around.  The trends have been better...

Have they? It seems like the ceiling is lower and the general idea of a decent storm hinges upon some tenuous latish development with a pretty decent east/west cut off, and a hooking low. That best case scenario could easily go badly.

Particularly where we are!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro is a general 1-3, 2-4….. mainly 1-2” for most 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Until 18z.

Yeah, This year, Nothing is certain even at 12 hrs, As the mid Atlantic knows from 2 days ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro is a general 1-3, 2-4….. mainly 1-2” for most 

2-5".

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Try 10 to 1 maps....Kuchie be messing with the ratios....the QPF is almost identical to 00z except a bit more up north and far west.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

he said 0z