Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[ORH_wxman]

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

it's unbearable

[mahk_webstah]

Well I guess its time to reshuffle the pattern and hope for some luck?

[greenmtnwx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

Don't do it Will. Don't go DIT on us now. I know it's been a tough season but writing's on the wall. Live to fight another day.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

Unreadable. Folks have issues . It’s the Qpf fetish . They aren’t looking at the big picture 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

Small differences are the reason this season has sucked so far...in mind, I felt that 12z today was when we needed to see said changes, so I think this is actually pretty consistent.

[MJO812]

I doubt we see major changes

This is only 2 days away

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

I know.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

Why? Bc a hugger that mixes which was the "most likely" scenario for many and it obviously is not happening, the biggest risk in my mind has always been the goods miss to the east.  Obviously we can still get a nice 3-6" out of this, but the East risk is the one that played out.

[CoastalWx]

I like the 28-3 mentality. It's cute.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Why? Bc a hugger that mixes which was the "most likely" scenario for many and it obviously is not happening, the biggest risk in my mind has always been good miss to the east.  Obviously we can still get a nice 3-6" out of this, but the East risk is the one that played out.

Except that it keeps coming NW. And has another 36 hours to continue 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, greenmtnwx said:

Don't do it Will. Don't go DIT on us now. I know it's been a tough season but writing's on the wall. Live to fight another day.

I don't see a reason to forecast 2-3" here right now. Maybe well northwest closer to your hood is mostly out of the heavy snow but further east should not be punting this event. I still think even pretty far NW could get a decent band when looking aloft.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Why? Bc a hugger that mixes which was the "most likely" scenario for many and it obviously is not happening, the biggest risk in my mind has always been good miss to the east.  Obviously we can still get a nice 3-6" out of this, but the East risk is the one that played out.

Yea, I said all along 12z today....not sure why people are stunned that I stuck to that. If I didn't, then the other people like greenmtnwx would kill me...can't win lol

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah… Scott will be in to scold you shortly 

Ha     well ... my "thoughts" and vestments were purely intellectual - I'm not personally 'bummed out' or whatever by these recent model scenarios.

I know what you were after - the finger wagging thing.  
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see a reason to forecast 2-3" here right now. Maybe well northwest closer to your hood is mostly out of the heavy snow but further east should not be punting this event. I still think even pretty far NW could get a decent band when looking aloft.

Well, keep in mind I was originally thinking 6-12"...I think that ship has sailed. Sure, widespread 3-6" is still possible.

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I doubt we see major changes

This is only 2 days away

Major changes from what? the 6z Euro/12z Rgem/12z 3km which give BOS 6"? Or the 12z 12km/12z GFS less than 2"?

[Damage In Tolland]

DC on Monday. Same deal. Qpf showed 1-3” . Less than 24 hours out . They got 8-12” in 8 hours. Setup is very similar . SE ridge , ample moisture transport, strengthening low 

[Henry's Weather]

Not only are the mesos still waffling between moderate event and significant event, the ensembles still have a west-based spread. Even the euro's unattractive solution from 0z features a consolidated piece of energy rounding a neutral to slightly negatively tilted trough, pointed directly at NE, or at least east NE. It's hard to conceive a solution where we don't at least get some solid snows for a few hours.

[MJO812]

Cmc is nice for eastern SNE 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

DC on Monday. Same deal. Qpf showed 1-3” . Less than 24 hours out . They got 8-12” in 8 hours. Setup is very similar . SE ridge , ample moisture transport, strengthening low 

That was very well advertised within 24-36 hours out by GFS and some other models but not all guidance.  I was intrigued by that storm with such a short window for a major snowstorm there.. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Why? Bc a hugger that mixes which was the "most likely" scenario for many and it obviously is not happening, the biggest risk in my mind has always been the goods miss to the east.  Obviously we can still get a nice 3-6" out of this, but the East risk is the one that played out.

Yeah i agree it looks like the "Worry east" crowd are right...but this is different from actually punting this event. There's nearly 2 days left and small changes can easily bring this pretty far west in terms of sensible wx....you have a VERY potent vortmax rounding the base of a well-placed shortwave. Some nuances in the downstream ridging and convective-robbing conveyors are preventing a major storm, but it's not hard to see how those nuances trend better.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That was very well advertised within 24-36 hours out by GFS and some other models but not all guidance.  I was intrigued by that storm with such a short window for a major snowstorm there.. 

Just keep the same thing in mind in this . The final 24 hours are going to ramp up significantly 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is nice for eastern SNE 

add it to the "6 inches for Boston" group

[greenmtnwx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see a reason to forecast 2-3" here right now. Maybe well northwest closer to your hood is mostly out of the heavy snow but further east should not be punting this event. I still think even pretty far NW could get a decent band when looking aloft.

I'll actually just ride this one out at the homestead in Monmouth County NJ although not looking good here either. Contemplated VT but that fell apart.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i agree it looks like the "Worry east" crowd are right...but this is different from actually punting this event. There's nearly 2 days left and small changes can easily bring this pretty far west in terms of sensible wx....you have a VERY potent vortmax rounding the base of a well-placed shortwave. Some nuances in the downstream ridging and convective-robbing conveyors are preventing a major storm, but it's not hard to see how those nuances trend better.

Ya, I'm def not punting at all am still very hopeful for 3-6" even back here.. There are plenty of favorable factors as well

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i agree it looks like the "Worry east" crowd are right...but this is different from actually punting this event. There's nearly 2 days left and small changes can easily bring this pretty far west in terms of sensible wx....you have a VERY potent vortmax rounding the base of a well-placed shortwave. Some nuances in the downstream ridging and convective-robbing conveyors are preventing a major storm, but it's not hard to see how those nuances trend better.

Also the "worry east" crowd is saying that as they are 100 miles to the west. Obviously easier to say that. My comments are more for this area. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Also the "worry east" crowd is saying that as they are 100 miles to the west. Obviously easier to say that. My comments are more for this area. 

Yes true....though I definitely thought we'd be battling more of a hugger 2 days ago...just based on the position of the trough as it goes neutral/neg pretty decently far west. But the confluence up north has fought that off pretty good. Still, I think that fairly far west trough positioning and potent vortmax can work in our favor now as we get into the final 48 hours.

[ROOSTA]

The potential is there! Compared to where the pattern was to where it is going forth, dollar to dime bet it's an improvement. Any snow is good snow!
As the models turn (should be a mid-day soap on TV) 
THIS IS NOT THE EVENT TO BASE WINTER ON. 

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes true....though I definitely thought we'd be battling more of a hugger 2 days ago...just based on the position of the trough as it goes neutral/neg pretty decently far west. But the confluence up north has fought that off pretty good. Still, I think that fairly far west trough positioning and potent vortmax can work in our favor now as we get into the final 48 hours.

Agree. 

[CoastalWx]

Ukie is a little west of 12z.